Experts believe that the fall of the ruble is temporary and the Russian currency will soon regain lost ground. “In the medium term, I expect a return to 31 rubles/dollar, in the long term - to 29 rubles/dollar,” ALOR Group analyst Svetlana Korzeneva told RBC.

Photo: RBC

She noted that the weakening of the ruble against the dollar in May 2012. is based on a number of current factors. In particular, this is a serious decline in oil prices and the continued outflow of capital from the country. The reason for such a development of the situation is the deterioration of the situation in the European region and growing concerns about the further development of the debt crisis, the expert noted.

At the same time, S. Korzeneva pointed out that the Bank of Russia began to gradually become involved in the support process. In her opinion, this will allow the ruble to regain some of its lost positions in the future.

Anton Struchenevsky, senior economist at Troika Dialog Investment Company, is even more optimistic. “The devaluation that is now taking place is completely harmless for the economy. Similar processes took place in Russia in September 2011 against the backdrop of another wave of panic about the possible collapse of the eurozone. Then there was also an outflow of capital and a fall in the ruble. However, this had a special impact on the economy, in in general, it did not, and inflation did not accelerate. On the contrary, these processes even had a positive impact on the budget, since budget revenues from export duties grew. As a result, we ended the budget year with a surplus, while with a stronger ruble there would have been a deficit ", he noted.

The expert is confident that the dynamics of the ruble now completely depends on oil prices. “Oil prices, as we see, are correcting so far. This suggests that it is quite possible that the ruble will continue to weaken. If oil prices remain at around $100 per barrel, then the fall is behind us. But a further decline in oil prices will oil means that the ruble may also fall,” he said, emphasizing that he does not see any catastrophe in the weakening of the ruble. “Nothing terrible is happening. The ruble now against the bi-currency basket is approximately at the level of the end of September 2011. So for now there is no particular problem here,” the expert noted.

According to the observations of the head of the analytical department of NOMOS Bank, Kirill Tremasov, today the ruble exchange rate is already close to the upper limit of the bi-currency basket range, which is 32.15-38.15 rubles. “Today the basket rose above 37.50 rubles. It is clear that at these levels the Central Bank should already begin more aggressive interventions. I think that for now exchange rates should more or less stabilize at these levels. I don’t think that market participants will play aggressively against the Central Bank of the Russian Federation,” says K. Tremasov. He also expressed the opinion that if the price of oil falls to $90 per barrel. and lower, then it is possible that attacks on the ruble will intensify and the Central Bank may move the borders of the bi-currency basket upward. “But at the current levels of oil prices, there are grounds for stabilization of the ruble exchange rate. I think that next week we will even see some kind of correction - a strengthening of the ruble,” the expert noted.

Source: quote.rbc.ru

First Deputy Director General of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Dmitry Sorokin reminds that fluctuations of the ruble between the numbers 29-33 are included in the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, objectively they are correct, these forecasts are within the framework of fluctuations that are inevitable, because the oil market depends not only on economic factors, but also on a number of others who are outside the economy. At the same time, the RAS believes that there are no objective reasons for a global crisis in the next decade. The growth rate of the global economy will be even slightly higher than in the previous decade. “We’ll survive, don’t be afraid of the second wave, it won’t be worse than 2009,” the expert sums up.

Let us remind you that in May the ruble lost 15% against the dollar, which is the largest decline since the fall of 2008. The official exchange rate of the US dollar to the ruble, established by the Bank of Russia since June 2, 2012, is 33.7384 rubles/dollar.

Experts: The ruble will quickly regain lost ground