Bashar Assad as an anecdote

On the eve of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs made a very informal statement ( quoted by the “look” in order to certainly as close as possible to official words): “It is difficult to invent a response to the response of the information that Syria President Bashar Assad allegedly transferred his money to Russian banks and intends to ask for asylum in Russia, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Alexander Lukashevich said on Thursday .”

And he added: " In my opinion, such a humor on my part is no (comment). I will not make any joke on this score ." The reason for Lukashevich’s statement: " Earlier, a number of Western media reported that Assad transferred about $ 6 billion to Russian banks and was going to look for asylum in Russia ."

Jokes, this is generally positive - their presence produces interest in the topic. More interesting jokes in the international media, it has a beautiful tendency to make the reason for the geopolitical reasoning of everyone who is not in the subject. Well, since there are always few people in the topic, this is art and entertainment at the same time. Only in such cases it is necessary, nevertheless, to know the context - to understand when to laugh.

Where did the topic come from?

In general, she is not new. Three days ago, CNN recalled (" COULD Russia Help Push Out Al-Sassad?", By Jill Dougherty) that last December the media from the Middle East reported that Russia had a plan for Syria. He seemed to be in the fact that Assad goes aside, a transition period arises, the vice president of Sharaa was preparing the country for elections. Well, Moscow will either provide Assad with political asylum, or will equip it somehow.

Then the Russian officials did not confirm these leaks, but the plan was still recorded by an international mind, it was even written by almost a broadcast: "The Yemensky Variant." It was meant that the same scheme was scrolled in Yemen. But only this is not the story that the Foreign Ministry has now called "anecdote." That is, the story is similar, but the time is already different, so it is different.

Now it has been added in the same “look”: “ Lukashevich also stated that Annan is not about any second plan of the situation in Syria.” Annan is not talking about the second plan, he noted. “We are talking about the basic plan of a special settlement, established by consensus of all regular members of the UN Security Council and the entire international community.” “Accordingly, there are no attempts to come up with a background,” the ITAR-TASS Foreign Ministry quoted . ”

Context

The last statement of the Foreign Ministry is interesting separately, since no consensus just arose. With the "base plan" Annana does not work out, in particular - because of the Russian position. There is a dead end, a certain number of permanent members of the UN Security Council (USA, Great Britain and France) came across a veto from Russia and China, who do not want the UN sudden movements in Syria. In fact, they are against the displacement of Assad. As a result, last week, the US Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice suggested that as soon as Russia does not allow the council to put pressure on Syria, then there was nothing left but to act outside the UN framework. Which, in general, is not good.

Accordingly, the new plan of Annan (this plan, of course, exists) is that
To assemble the contact group in an expanded composition - adding to the Councils of Security Council also the main regional players who have an influence on Assad - Saudi Arabia, Qatar. Turkey and Iran. The expanded group will draw a plan for the transfer of power and introduce Assad and the Syrian opposition to it. Well, since some are influenced there, they can convince the successor of Assad, hold parliamentary elections, adopt a new constitution. An ordinary anti -crisis package - it is said that after the removal of Assad it will also be necessary to reform power structures - as in " Eastern Europe after the Fall of Communism ". In general, it seems that the Americans have no particular claims to the whole Syrian authorities, outside the Assad clan.

It must be assumed that the expanded contact group will also be able to make a decision without consensus. But this is not stated, and the main hopes are that maybe the expanded composition will be able to convince Russia to agree with the need to remove Assad. They write in detail so much (here in detail: “ Annan at un for last -ditch effort to save Syrian Peace Plan”): “ As the Western diplomat told Reuters,“ we are trying to explain to the Russians that if they do not shift Assad, they may lose all their positions - the situation may reach a major regional war with the participation Lebanon, Iran and Saudi Arabia. So far, the Russians have not agreed . "

As for Russian interests in Syria, serious sales of Syria weapons, as well as that. that Russia " retains there the only non -freezing port outside of its territory ." Further, it was again repeated that " While Russia Has Repeatedly Said is not Proting Assad, It Has Given No Indications that Its Ready to Abandon Him ". In general - neither "yes" nor "no" do not say.

Shelter and $ 6 billion

So this topic has some reason. In general, in addition to Russia, the place where Assad can be fused, they called Iran, and there this idea has not yet been called a publicly joke. Well, specifically the topic of the shelter arose three days ago at the Washington Post (" Annan's New Road Map for Peace in Syria", by David Ignatius). This is precisely what the “information distributors” distributed - by the definition of A. Lukashevich.

In the article, it all starts exactly from the point at which the previous quote ended: " The West Wants Russia to Broker a Deal, But So Far President Vladimir Putin Enough Pragmatic Benefit To Embrace This Course" . That is, Putin does not yet see enough practical benefits to agree with the elimination of Assad.

Ignatius added some more considerations about why Russia is important for the transition period: it has a collective agent of influence, namely the Syrian army. Because many of its current higher ranks studied in Russia. And over decades of weapons trade with Syria, Russia has made close contacts with power structures. That is, the same option is considered: everything will remain, as it was, only without Assad and his brigade.

This is where this scheme appears: " Assad Would Pressumably Depart for Russia, Which is Said to have Offhed Him Exile; The Syrian Dictator Is Rumored to Have 6 Billion in Syrian Reservs to Moscow Alread, Assad Presumably Could Avoid International Proseculation for War Crimes. Assad and His Family ".

That is, Assad can go to Russia, which - they say - already offered him asylum. In addition, according to rumors, Assad has already transferred $ 6 billion there. Which, of course, speaks of the seriousness of this version. Presumably Assad will be able to avoid an international court on charges of war crimes. Well, yes, Iran, it seems, also offered him a shelter.

But here there is a nuance: in this option, this topic looks like these $ 6 billion - for a rainy day, the entire Assad family. But the same Americans had another version on the radio yesterday, completely simple: this money is transferred in order to have a reserve in Russia in the case of intensifying sanctions and arrest of accounts in the West. This option, of course, is directly related to the asylum for Assad.

Well, after Lukashevich’s statement, the Relationship of the Russian Foreign Ministry to the development of events became clearer, but only before that the Ammerkans did not have illusions: “ Wous Russia or Iran Support this Unconventional Proposal? Its Impossible to Know ”.

And so, in general, it is not clear: why a joke? The proposal as a proposal, because it happens that some former leaders, due to various historical circumstances, are forced to escape from the country. The household is, and the countries that provide them with shelters are useful. Refugees can, for example, share experience with the local press - how it all happened and why. Actually. It is precisely because of Lukashevichevsky the word "joke" that seems to them that this topic is now being considered seriously. Well, why was it so to get so nervous?