Dropped ruble

On June 6, President Vladimir Putin signed amendments to the law "On the Federal Budget for 2012". The main of these amendments: the budget of the Russian Federation was formed taking into account the average annual oil price of $100 per barrel, but now the bar for calculation has been raised to $115 per barrel. And since, according to official data, almost half of budget revenues are generated by the sale of hydrocarbons, a simple paper combination (replacing one average figure with another) will bring an additional 900 billion rubles to the treasury. On paper.
Formally, these changes are due to the fact that in the first quarter the average price of a barrel was $118. However, as you know, just over the past week, black gold has fallen below $100 per barrel. The president's pen, with which he put his signature under the amendments to the Budget Law, did not flinch from this, however. Perhaps because the need to fulfill the social obligations of the state, especially those that were adopted as a result of a very populist presidential election campaign, hangs over him like a sword of Damocles. The price of these promises, according to experts, is 2.5-3.5% of GDP. Where to get these funds with a deficit budget is not clear. This is probably why the president and the government really want to believe that the “painted” 900 billion rubles will somehow materialize in real life.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance - an agency that is obliged not to soar in the clouds, but to count real money - presented proposals to reduce government spending. Anton Siluanov and his colleagues were convinced by the example of the first quarter that, despite $118 per barrel, the budget did not turn out to be in surplus and was executed with a very unpleasant excess of expenses over income. But now, when the price of oil has begun to roll down, doubts about the stability of the budget structure have turned into confidence in its instability.
And then a crazy thought comes to mind about the non-randomness and man-made nature of the fall in the ruble exchange rate that happened in early June. Yes, the current budget receives its main income in dollars from oil exports. But the state spends rubles. Let's solve a small conditional problem. At a price of $100 per barrel, the state receives $100 billion over a certain period, or 3 trillion rubles at the rate of 30 rubles per dollar. And if the price of a barrel is $70, it will receive $70 billion. It would seem that in the second case, a hole of $30 billion in the budget is on guard! But the budget formula is not an equation with one unknown. There are at least two variables. The second is the exchange rate of the ruble. So, having received $70 billion, the state must spend 3 trillion rubles. This is possible (those who do not believe can arm themselves with a calculator) at a dollar exchange rate of 42 rubles. „

And then a crazy thought comes to mind about the non-randomness and man-made depreciation of the ruble

“So, if the forecasts of the authorities regarding the price of oil are so strikingly at odds with reality, they have no choice but to “lower” the ruble. If we take into account that the Government's Reserve Fund is mainly held in dollars and euros, there is another explanation for the current devaluation of the Russian national currency: this is a simple and reliable way to increase state reserves.
Explaining about the growing dollar and euro is much easier than answering to pensioners or workers at Uralvagonzavod, to whom the Ministry of Finance is going to cut defense orders. In the end, everything can be blamed on the stock market speculators, the global crisis and the too wasteful Greeks, who put the European economy in a very interesting position.
In practice, the devaluation of the ruble will inevitably result in inflation, and quite soon. From the fact that imports have become less profitable, Russian cows will not increase their milk yield, and chickens will not begin to lay better. Just a dozen imported eggs that cost $1.5 will cost not 45 rubles, but 63 (at 42 rubles per dollar).
If the government decides to resort to the help of the "second variable" - the exchange rate of the ruble - to solve budget problems, Putin's social largesse will result in an inflationary tax on the entire population, and the country will be thrown back in terms of inflation in the nineties.

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