Siberia woke up and fell asleep

On Sunday, mayoral elections were held in Omsk. The United Russia candidate Vyacheslav Dvorakovsky won. While Moscow and St. Petersburg are experiencing a boom in civic and opposition activity, Omsk unexpectedly saw record low turnout. A week ago, under the same conditions, elections for the mayor of Krasnoyarsk were held, and a representative of the ruling party predictably became the head of the city. Experts and political scientists explained to PublicPost why Siberia is not interested in elections.

According to the Omsk Election Commission, 17.32% of citizens took part in the mayoral elections. In 2006, these elections would not have been recognized as valid, but in December, then-President Vladimir Putin abolished the minimum voter turnout threshold (for regional elections it was 20%). In Krasnoyarsk on June 10, just over 20% of voters went to the polls . The low turnout of Siberians indicates the onset of political apathy after the turbulent electoral cycle of 2011-2012, political scientists told PublicPost. Elections in Omsk and Krasnoyarsk showed a decline in sentiment, fatigue from election campaigns and from traditional candidates - both from the party in power and from the systemic opposition.

Experts explain the empty polling stations in Omsk and Krasnoyarsk by non-political factors - the holiday season and the dacha period. “The elections were held in the middle of summer, when it is psychologically difficult to tune in to political battles. Many people prefer relaxing at their dacha to voting,” says Deputy General Director of the Center for Political Current Affairs of Russia Alexander Shatilov. Andrei Buzin, an expert at the Golos Voter Association, agrees with him: in the summer, elections very often take place with such low numbers, especially in conditions where they are not of interest to voters. In the fall, he believes, turnout will increase significantly.

Dmitry Oreshkin, political scientist

“The homely truth is that if people really cared about these elections, they would not have gone to the dacha and to the river. They would have gone to vote. Since they did not go to vote, they spat and gave up the question of appointing a mayor. And the authorities have their own right: if the voter is not interested, then he delegates his right to elect the mayor to the hands of the authorities, and they use this right.”

“There is not enough competition,” Andrei Buzin explains the low interest in the past elections. “Elections are, first of all, competition. And our elections suffer from its absence.” In Omsk, in his opinion, after the candidate from Moscow, economist and political scientist Vladislav Inozemtsev, was not allowed to participate in the elections, the elections lost their attractiveness even for a small politically active part of the population. As a result, it was mainly the passive, controlled electorate that went to the polls, which traditionally chooses the conservative path and votes for the party in power. “Omsk and Krasnoyarsk show that regional elites are mastering Moscow’s technologies with some time lag. Moscow implemented a low turnout strategy in the 2009 elections to the Moscow City Duma, when the real turnout was at the level of 22%. This greatly simplifies the situation for the administrative resource - for The elections are held by pensioners, military personnel, doctors, employees of dependent large enterprises, which, as a rule, support the current government,” political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin explains the situation in Siberian cities.

In the elections for the mayor of Omsk, the candidate from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Viktor Zharkov received 30% of the votes and took second place, and the representative of A Just Russia, Irina Averina, took third place with 6%. In Omsk, unlike Krasnoyarsk, the opposition demonstrated its inability to present a single candidate. This showed that the tendency towards unification works so far only in isolated cases. “Both the communists and the Socialist Revolutionaries are trampling on the same socially oriented electoral clearing. Therefore, as experience shows, related political forces are often the most irreconcilable enemies, and it is very difficult for them to come to an agreement. In Omsk, this led to the fact that the opposition beat not with its fist, but fives,” explains Alexander Shatilov from the Central Committee of the Russian Federation.

Alexey Mukhin, General Director of the Center for Political Information

“For the opposition, this is bad news. For United Russia, which is now rebuilding on the fly and trying to meet the demands of the times, this is good news. The inability of the opposition to unite reduces its competitive abilities for the ruling party. Therefore, the elections in Omsk turned out to be much more more symptomatic of the current political context than the elections in Krasnoyarsk or other cities where the opposition tried to create a competitive environment for United Russia.

Experts believe that the situation in the regions will begin to change in 2-4 years. On the one hand, the party in power will be able to maintain the status quo for the next year and a half. “The authorities have now given instructions for United Russia to hold large regional centers and gubernatorial positions. For the remaining elections - for local self-government, legislative assemblies - options are possible up to the conclusion of coalitions,” says Alexander Shatilov. On the other hand, during this time the situation with civil society will begin to change in the regions. This shows the experience of Moscow, which evolved from the 2009 Moscow City Duma elections to mass participation in surveillance and protest marches in 2012. “I think in about 2-3 years the situation will change both in Omsk and Krasnoyarsk,” political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin is sure. Andrei Buzin agrees with him: “Civil movements are spreading from the center, but there is a delay of about 3-4 years. So there are chances that in 3-4 years political activity will reach large cities and regions.”