I. Pitalev / RIA Novosti

Gazprom's export plans were discussed yesterday by Deputy Chairman of the Management Board Alexander Medvedev. He began his speech in the traditional half-joking manner: how much negativity there was about Gazprom this winter - both deliveries are declining, and export forecasts need to be revised, as a result "if you don't praise yourself, you won't get any praise from the press." There was no reduction in deliveries in the winter, the top manager emphasized: in early February, due to record cold, requests from individual EU countries exceeded the "average expected" by about 50%. Yes, not all additional demand was met, Russia also had frosts, but all contractual obligations were fulfilled, and exports grew compared to last year's level. So the forecast for this year is at least no worse than 2011. And in monetary terms, growth is expected, Medvedev added.

The total cost of gas to be exported in 2012 will be a record $84.5 billion (versus $78.2 billion last year), Medvedev noted. About $61 billion is the forecast for revenue from non-CIS countries (plus $4 billion), and about $23.6 billion from former Soviet Union countries (plus $2.4 billion). Total supplies will be at least 222 billion cubic meters (versus 221 billion a year ago). "But the most important thing is not the volumes, the most important thing is the revenue," Medvedev emphasized. In addition, all these figures do not include the so-called virtual export, advances that are paid for the future if the actual gas sample turns out to be less than the contract volumes on a "take or pay" basis.

True, based on the results of five months, exports to distant countries have decreased by almost 14%. And the main client in the CIS – Ukraine – plans to buy at least 10 billion cubic meters of gas less than last year: then it needed additional raw materials for settlements with the Swiss Rosukrenergo. And the plan for this year is almost a third less than last year – 27 billion cubic meters. Ukraine sent the same request to Gazprom for 2013.

Medvedev noted that the contract with Ukraine includes an obligation to pay for a minimum volume of gas (41.6 billion cubic meters – Vedomosti). And given the past winter, the current pumping of raw materials into underground storage facilities, and the upcoming heating season, Gazprom expects a much higher drawdown from Ukraine – exactly around 40 billion cubic meters per year, as in 2011. Moreover, Gazprom is not going to revise the contract with Ukraine: there are no official negotiations at all, Medvedev noted, only consultations.

It is unlikely that Gazprom will fulfill its plan for 2012, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Karen Kostanyan: taking into account the decline in demand in Europe, which Gazprom Chairman of the Board Alexey Miller recently spoke about, and also taking into account Ukraine’s plans, exports will be in the region of 200 billion cubic meters, which, accordingly, will also be reflected in revenue.

And the strategy of maintaining a high price is a risk of losing market share in the future, some contracts will simply not be extended, adds Mikhail Korchemkin, director of East European Gas Analysis: “Gazprom’s management is behaving as if it wants to squeeze as much money out of its clients as possible in the next 2–3 years and invest these funds in the construction of gas pipelines. And then let the grass not grow.”

However, Medvedev does not agree with this either. By 2030, Europe alone will need an additional import of 200 billion cubic meters of gas, so the new South Stream gas pipeline project is entirely justified. And if we talk about the more immediate future – 2015 – Gazprom’s exports to distant foreign countries could grow to 180 billion cubic meters. True, with “adequate demand,” the top manager stipulated.

Gazprom is preparing a record