Kudrin: The country is on the threshold of an unprecedented crisis, and in the government they are not aware

Ex-Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin said that Russia is at the beginning of the full-fledged crisis of a new type, and the current leadership of the country does not realize the scale of the problem.

The reason will be Greece's exit from the euro zone, which, according to Kudrin, is "practically inevitable." “For some indicators, we are worse, we have fewer reserves. It seems to us that we have more experience - we know what to do, we have passed it once. But this new crisis will not be similar, it will have our own characteristics. Therefore, we will have to rely on how everything is done is wrong. We will have to watch how this special, new type of crisis will unfold,” the ex -minister said in an interview Petersburg Economic Forum.

“I think that we are at the beginning of a full -fledged crisis, very serious. It is provoked, except for the previous factors, even with debts. The problem of Greece is not solved and, most likely, will no longer be resolved. Greece is practically inevitable for me,” Kudrin said. “This will happen within six months a year. Maybe they will try to delay something, but practically this is inevitable ... in fact, in essence, on the essence, in essence, in essence, in essence. Kon will be a question of preserving the euro.

"Every second speaker at the forum said: of course, this scenario may be the main one if the European Union does not take any serious counteraction measures. Probably, this counteraction plan will be developed before the end of the year. It was late. It had to be developed six months ago," Kudrin said.

Following this, he moved to criticism of the Russian authorities. "The government is now making decisions without evaluating this scenario as real, not preparing for it. Therefore, we argued a little with (the first deputy prime minister) Shuvalov in that part whether it is necessary to increase the cost of modernization. These income will not be with such a scenario. But on the contrary, that bar of expenses that we will lift, we will not have to be kept right away, and still reduced everything back, and still barely the barefoot. Continue to maintain basic social expenses. "

Kudrin did not find all allies in such a severe assessment. “The forum was at a decent level,” he said at a press conference. “A serious discussion of key world problems took place. However, the situation in the world economy is much worse than it was presented,” the ex -minister of ITAR -TASS quotes.

The shifter Kudrin reassures: reduction of the ruble non -critical

The Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanov, who took this post after Kudrin’s departure, does not consider the situation to be critical with a decrease in the ruble: “There used to be even more falling,” he told reporters. According to him, "volatility is in connection with a change in oil price."

According to Siluanov, "the Central Bank does not interfere very much in the results of trading." "The Central Bank will intervene when the bivalve basket rises closer to the upper level - 38.15 rubles per dollar, " Interfax quotes the Minister.

Suluanov suggested that now there is a "minimum level of central bank interference." The head of the Ministry of Finance explained that this is due to the agreement that "if the level approaches the upper border of the bivalve basket, then there will be a more active part. In the meantime, all this is within the framework of the corridor."

The head of VTB Andrei Kostin also does not foresee the strong weakening of the ruble. “The Central Bank has enough opportunities to keep the ruble exchange rate within the corridor,” he said.

Kudrin predicts the fall of GDP

Alexey Kudrin predicts the Russian economy of GDP drop by 3 - 4 percent in 2013. If it is exceeded, then we can talk about the crisis.

“It is highly likely that this will most likely happen next year,” he said, answering questions from journalists as part of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. At the same time, the ex-minister is convinced, for the cyclic development of the economy this fall is "inevitable, and it is not necessary to fight it, since it will never prevent it from any money."

The real crisis begins when the GDP falls more than 3-4%, he believes. So, in the previous crisis, the fall was 7.9%.

The ex-minister also believes that the government should have a program, a script for working at a price of oil at 60 dollars per barrel for several years. “This is what I would think, we need to have,” he said.

In general, in the conditions of the upcoming crisis, from his point of view, it is necessary to "do nothing, that is, not to increase the costs, but not to reduce the programs that are already outlined, they are already valid." “All that is planned to be done: there is no need to nervous either the industry or those who count on these funds, but you need to reconsider those programs that are launched again, because even this bar of expenses when falling oil prices will be very difficult to keep,” Kudrina ITAR -TASS quotes.