Translated material
Putin traveler
What signals does the president send the world
Foreign policy is, as you know, always the continuation of the internal, only with a different rhetoric. On the routes of the leaders' trips, you will learn a lot about which “whales” their power is based and what they intend with it, and therefore with the country, to do it further. The Middle Eastern tour of Vladimir Putin, starting on June 25, is, at first Israel, then Jordan is the eighth of his foreign trip for the first 45 days of the third term (there are much less in the country: to the Kholmansky plenate to the Urals, to the Favorite Sochi, and to the Economic Forum in St. Petersburg). The first was in neighboring Belarus, then in order - Germany, France, Uzbekistan, China (SCO summit), Kazakhstan, Mexico (twenty summit). Why is it, and not otherwise? And why exactly here, and not somewhere else? After all, it has already been noticed, foreign policy in the first post -collection weeks clearly occupies Putin more than the internal. It was also in 2004, at the dawn of the second Putin term: Ukraine, France, Mexico, the United States (the Eight Summit), Uzbekistan (SCO summit), Kazakhstan ... Since then, a lot of water has flowed. What signals Putin-Traveler sends the country and the world now-The New Times tried to analyze with the example of his trip to the Middle East at the height of the Syrian drama 
All last week, the Israeli resort town of Netanya, somewhat reminiscent of Yalta or Alushta, stood on his ears: from the encirclement of the head of the Israeli Foreign Ministry of Avigdor Lieberman, local officials were launched by the “not angry of the Russians” and meticulously comply with Putin’s guards: where, who and how to stand during the opening ceremony of the memorial in honor of the victory The Red Army over Nazi Germany with the participation of the President of Russia. 400 representatives of Russian special services arrived on three aircraft security on three aircraft, and with them two armored limousines. For the President of Russia and his retinue, the Jerusalem Hotel “Tsar David”, one of the most expensive and prestigious throughout the Middle East, was reserved. For the rest of the delegation, 270 rooms were removed at the Dan Network on the Oil Mountain in Jerusalem, and the rest of the numbers, again, “on the advice” of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, were simply removed from reservation.
Generous gestures
They say that the script of the opening ceremony of the memorial at the request of the FSO was rewritten three times. A few days before Putin’s visit, it became known that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would not take part in it, although the initiative of the construction of the monument, according to the official Israeli version, was “nominated by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his visit to Moscow in February 2010 and supported by the leadership of Russia.” (According to the unofficial, the idea initially belongs to the Russian Senator Boris Spiegel, who allegedly “threw it” to the Israeli leadership.) True, the reason for the lack of Netanyahu, although banal, but respectful: the premiere broke the tendon on the leg during playing football and will spend several weeks in the plaster. Which, however, does not prevent him from holding two rounds of negotiations with Putin.
The artistic advantages of the monument, symbolizing the gratitude of the Israeli of Russia (or the USSR - apparently, the Russian president himself does not make much difference between these two powers) for those Jews in Europe, which the advanced Red Army managed to rescue from the Nazi concentration camps, still cause disputes: two white wings, which fell from the ground, remind many of the fallen plashes on the concrete of Angel, so there, so there. And the frozen ** authors of the monument - three Russian sculptors: Salavat Shcherbakov, Vasily Perfiliev and Mikhail Naroditsky .. Although Putin will probably like Putin. The idea of creating a memorial and its financing together was supported by Russian businessmen of Jewish origin: they talk about $ 2 million allocated for the construction of the monument. The project sponsors are Mikhail Friedman, chairman of the supervisory board of the Alfa-Group Holding, German Khan, Executive Director of TNK-BP, Herman Zakharyaev, President of the STMEGI Goris Charitable Fund, Boris Mints, co-owner of the discovery financial company, and Dmitry Bosov, president of the Alltech Investment group. At the last moment, Israeli entrepreneur Mikhail Mirilashvili joined them.
The no less generous gesture of Moscow - the Russian Center for Science and Culture (RCNK) built in Bethlehem on the territory of Palestinian autonomy, also honored to be open Putin. The center is built near the place where, according to the Christian tradition, Jesus was born, it will be a school, Russian language courses, and other cultural and educational sections designed for local residents. All expenses are due to the Russian budget.
"Plan B"
Vladimir Putin arrived in the Middle East three days after the pilot of the MiG-21 fighter of the Air Force of Syria, Colonel Hassan Hammadech, landed at the El Mafrak air base in Jordan, after which he asked the authorities of this country to provide him with political asylum. So the incident looks in the presentation of the Reuters agency. And here is another version-the Chinese agency "Sinhua", which exiled to a certain Lebanese resource: “The plane made a forced landing in Jordan due to technical problems. As expected, in the near future, Jordan will transfer the plane and his pilot to representatives of the Syrian authorities. ” Feel the difference?
China, like Russia, supports Bashar al -Assad in the UN Security Council, and in the air, and on Earth. But at the same time, Jordania assists a special role in the future fate of the Syrian president. According to the diplomatic sources of The New Times in Israel, Chinese and Israeli experts at the UN in conditions of strict confidentiality are discussing “Plan B”-the voluntary departure of Bashar al-Assad with the transfer of presidential functions to Vice President Faruk Sharaa-to the extraordinary presidential elections *** The head of the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov recently called such an option “Impossible” .. At the same time, Assada should leave according to the plan for the Jordanian monarch - King Abdalla. He must provide Assad and his family guarantees of security. In such a situation, King Abdullah simply cannot but “transfer” the pilot who escaped to Jordan to the Syrian authorities. Which does not mean that it will actually happen.
On the eve of Putin’s Middle Eastern tour, rumors circulated among Israeli analysts: Moscow was already notified by Jerusalem and Amman about this version of the “peaceful scenario” in Syria, reacted favorably and, realizing the futility of further support of Assad, “I was ready to pass it” - they say, during Putin’s visit, it remained only to agree on several points plan.
Between the devil and the deep sea
Due to the inter-Siri conflict in the Middle East, a unique situation has developed: on the one hand-Russia, China and Iran, on the other-the USA and Western Europe, and Israel balances between them. Israel, who has already learned how to live in the neighborhood with Assad and with a Mubarak overthrown in Egypt, is not enthusiastic about the explosion of protest activity in the Arab world, if you notice, our position is closer and more understandable, but for obvious reasons they are openly trying not to talk about it, ”the Russian diplomatic source in Israel assures the New Times. In Jerusalem, he continues, do not support the participation of the CIA in the preparation of the Syrian armed opposition in the camps on the Syrian-Turkish border * * The newspaper The New York Times wrote about this on June 19. And they ask the Americans to "do not rush events." Americans and Europeans misunderstand the essence of the Syrian conflict and underestimate the influence of Syrian events on the world energy market, “but China understands” - this kind of revelations have to be heard from many Israeli experts.
Firstly, the Syrian drama has several levels, explains the former head of Mossad and the ex-director of the National Security Council Efraim Halevi. “It is based on a conflict between the Alawitic minority (7%) close to Shiism and the Sunni majority, which make up 75% of the population,” the largest Israeli newspaper Ahronot quotes Halevi. - At a higher level - the rivalry of Sunnis and Shiites for hegemony in the Middle East. At the head of the Sunnis are Egypt and Saudi Arabia, against which Iran are opposed to the Shiites communities in Iraq, the Gulf countries, primarily in Bahrain, and in the east of Saudi Arabia. ”
Secondly, the Syrian conflict must be considered in conjunction with Iran, which the West also does not. For Iran, the preservation of Assad is now even more important than a nuclear program. The fate of the far -reaching ambitions of Tehran, including in relation to Israel, will be determined by the outcome of the struggle for Damascus, continues Halevi: “Syria - Achilles heel of Tehran. If the Syrian drama ends with the fall of Assad, the balance of forces in the region will change and so strong blow will be inflicted on the Ayatall regime that he will be forced to abandon the nuclear program for his own survival. But if Assad is able to stay in power with the support of Russia, China and Iran, we will find inter -block confrontation like the one with which we lived over the past 50 years of the twentieth century. ”
There is only one way out: the USA and Russia are obliged to achieve the community of interests, which will be beneficial to both of them. Washington will have to pay the price of Moscow - in the form of preserving the orientation of Damascus in the military sector. In return, Russia will need to pay the price to the Americans in the form of overthrow of Assad and its replacement with another figure. Which one? From the environment of Assad? This is unlikely. Of the opposition figures? There is not one among them that would suit everyone. The Russian diplomat is the interlocutor of the magazine on this subject is optimistic: “The issue of Assad’s successor will be decided in one way or another within a month or two. And all this time, Russian ships of the Black Sea Fleet, which supposedly are about to enter the Syrian territorial waters to save our base in Tartus, will calmly stand on the raid of Sevastopol. ”
Plan “B”, if it exists not only in the fantasies of diplomats and experts - this is the same attempt by Israel to reconcile the interests of Russia and the USA in Syria. For her success, only the smallest is required - the consent of Assad himself.
Adasa Falk, political scientist (Israel):
“The Israelis never forget that they live in a very small country surrounded by either enemies or countries in which the Arab Revolutions have been blazing for more than a year. It is not clear how the case will end in Egypt, complete ambiguity with Syria. Iran also leaves no reason for optimism. We can talk for a long time that we are surrounded by low -predictable Arab regimes, many of which Moscow supports, trying to maintain its influence there. But we must not forget about reality: despite the “Arab Revolutions”, Israel has not yet suffered, except for a single incident in Cairo, where the attack on the embassy took place. In addition, we must admit that the Western powers cannot do without the help of Russia in their attempts to deal with Syria and Iran. It is unlikely that Moscow supports the Syrian regime of only trade and economic reasons, especially since in this case we are talking about only losses. It is obvious to me: Russia is much more responsible than the West approach the settlement of conflicts in the Middle East. Everyone has an example of Libya, turned into another absolutely uncontrollable jar of spiders, stuffed with modern weapons. In recent years, the foreign policy of America has been characterized by continuous failures in the Middle East, in Afghanistan, Iraq, in the Balkans, in Africa ... Barack Obama must say thanks to Vladimir Putin that he does not give him a chance for another mistake before the election.
Another obvious thing is that the conflict zones in the Arab world are now located next to Russia and Israel, but not with the USA or Europe. This naturally brings together Moscow and Jerusalem in the coordination of foreign policy efforts. The West is free at any moment to leave almost all the “hot spots”, leaving them to blaze in the immediate vicinity of our borders. The troops of the Allies are already leaving Afghanistan, in line of Iraq, although in one and another country the situation is far from calling it normalized. Why is Israel Syria, devoid of the slightest legitimate power, or Iran, "equipped" following the example of Iraq? "
Alexander Soldatov, editor -in -chief of the portal Credo.ru:
“In all these missionary initiatives of the Kremlin on the Holy Land there are no special foreign policy interests, but domestic political ones are an abyss. Russia has always included Palestine in its sphere of influence: at the end of the XIX - beginning of the 20th century there were a lot of Russian schools, monasteries were built that obeyed Moscow. Then most of this property was either sold or taken under control by the Russian Orthodox Church abroad ... Patriarch Alexy II began to embody the ROC's dream of gathering around the world under his wing everything that is possible, including monasteries on the Holy Land. So today the slogan “Palestine will be ours” for the Russian ruling group is more relevant than ever. Although, except how to amuse national pride, no more visible advantages from this activity flow.
The Holy Land is generally popular among representatives of a variety of Russian power structures who turned to "criminal-magical Orthodoxy." They are not that religious, but believers. They believe in God, they don’t observe the rites, they rarely go to church, but sometimes they fast. And most importantly, it is believed that all issues in the world are solved by the priests and money: we, they say, do not understand anything in your religion, but we can give money, and you will conquer there, pave everything we have done. ”