Translated material
Roulette or lottery
Two lines of the same course
Roulette or lottery. From Minsk to Amman, from Paris to Beijing, from Tashkent to the Mexican Los Kabos and Jerusalem-the geography of the first visits of the newly elected President Vladimir Putin covers almost the entire globe. It is pointless to look for priorities: the schedule is made so that no one is offended, and any step in which you can suspect the signal is neutralized by others 
How scary to live!
Vladimir Putin was quite clearly outlined in an article published a week before the presidential election. Briefly it can be reduced to the phrase "God, how scary to live." Even the anti -Western pathos of the article is not at all the same as before, during Putin’s previous presidency. Previously, Russia opposed specific enemies, mainly in the West. Now the danger comes from the international environment itself, chaotic and uncontrollable.
Actually, the reproach of the West is not the same as before - instead of complaints that Russia, they say, do not like and do not respect, the general accusation: everything that the world leaders are doing, whether it is the introduction of a single European currency, the pressure on individual countries, the active support of the Arab Spring or the inflationary pumping of the American economy - all this only aggravates the situation. And how to isolate from all this is incomprehensible. In general, the pathos is not at all offensive, but deeply defensive.
In one Putin, no doubt, is aware: Russia completely and completely depends on the world situation - both economic and political. Moreover, the dependence rises, and the ability to influence the external environment is reduced. It remains only to curse universal incompetence and irresponsibility and at the same time train the reaction in order to at least be able to quickly respond to all new challenges.
The Russian foreign policy success of the 2000s is a kind of bubble, pouting mainly due to mistakes and stupidities of others. But if earlier they could be used for their own good, now they are fraught with an avalanche, which will bury and "rising from the knees" Russia.
Two lines
Growing chaos in international relations, and in this the Russian president of rights, involves two possible lines of behavior. You can be active in calculating fish in muddy water. Chaos is not only a threat, but also the revealed opportunities: the usual schemes and hierarchies are destroyed, so Ideally a winning shines. But this is akin to the gambling game - the risk is great, there is no guarantee. Another approach is moderation and accuracy. Do not accept obligations, do not make sudden movements, to maintain the status quo, waiting, how it all ends. The Kremlin seems to have chosen the second option, although he is trying to compensate for real caution with virtual determination. But even rhetoric clearly does not reach the “best” samples of the late 2000s. There is no former passion.
Putin rightly noted in his very first election article: the post -Soviet era is over, and its agenda is exhausted. This applies to everything, including foreign policy. From the beginning of the 1990s to the end of the 2000s, Moscow was different, but was engaged in one thing: proof that with the end of the USSR, Russia did not disappear from the world arena as a great power. What they could have proved: to develop further, constantly looking back at the Soviet past and comparing himself with it, is more impossible. We need new goals, only measures to strengthen prestige, which in many respects the course of the 2000s was in many ways, you can’t do. However, to develop a strategic line in conditions when the usual coordinate system entered the phase of final decay (gradually it covered all world institutions) is useless. There is only one thing left: just in case, to cultivate the entire clearing, waiting for the horizon to cleor. And this is no longer a roulette, but a lottery, because no one knows what the clouds.