Islamist leads Egypt: risks and prospects

The Islamist candidate from the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohammed Morsi, won the presidential elections in Egypt. According to the High Election Commission, just over 51% of voters voted for him. 48.3% of voters voted for his rival, Air Force General and former Prime Minister of the country Ahmed Shafik, who is considered to be the successor to the policies of ousted President Hosni Mubarak. Elections in Egypt ended on June 17, the official results were announced only on June 24. PublicPost learned from orientalists what to expect from Egypt's domestic and foreign policy.

Evgeniy Satanovsky, President of the Middle East Institute

"Egypt is falling into another hole, from which, quite possibly, the country will not get out"

There is an Islamic revolution in Egypt. Morsi's victory means that the army is not holding back. She was unable to remove the Islamists from power, as in Algeria. (However, the Egyptian army is in a different situation than in Algeria in 1992. Then all of North Africa was exclusively secular. Islamists were crushed in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. The Algerians could afford it. And now the Algerian junta is the last secular power in the Arab world after the Syrian one is overthrown.) But, nevertheless, the army will not withstand the obvious blow. Accordingly, either it will be Islamized, or the Islamists will have to expose it to a blow in which it will be destroyed. And this, of course, is only possible in conditions of war with Israel. Nothing more optimistic can be said here.

It is impossible to cope with Egypt's economic, environmental, demographic and other problems. This is impossible for anyone: neither Morsi nor any other politician. At the same time, expect that Egypt will receive enough money from America, Saudi Arabia or Qatar - the main sponsor of the Muslim Brotherhood - to feed a country of almost 100 million people when the money in the treasury runs out (and from Mubarak's 36 billion in gold and foreign exchange reserves in a year from small 15 left), not necessary. As a result, we expect Egypt to fall into another hole, from which, quite possibly, the country will not get out. Not the first time in Egyptian history.

Elena Suponina, Arabist, international columnist for the Moscow News newspaper

"The victory of the Islamist is the best of all possible evils"

I do not share the point of view of those who sound the alarm bells because of the Islamist victory in Egypt. This was quite expected. Islamists in this country, and indeed now in the Arab world, are very popular. They did a lot in social terms even under the previous regime: they opened free, accessible clinics for the poor, schools. Thanks to this, their popularity grew greatly. I personally met and interviewed Mohammed Morsi. And I got the impression that this person is quite adequate, sincere and educated. It is noteworthy that he received his education not only in Egypt, but also in the USA. He may not yet have the polish that more experienced officials usually have, but he has very rational ideas and understands the seriousness of the problems facing Egypt. And this understanding pushes him to the need for cooperation with other leading political forces in Egypt. Moreover, I am sure that very close contacts have now been established between the military in Egypt and the Islamists, and they are trying together to lead the country out of the political and economic crisis.

The economic situation in Egypt is very difficult: the country is heavily dependent on foreign loans and borrowings, unemployment is rising, and the population is increasing at a rapid pace. With 82 million inhabitants, the annual population growth is about 1 million 300 thousand people - this is a lot. This means that more and more people need to be fed, treated, trained and provided with jobs. It will be very difficult to cope with this. In addition, political instability will continue in the near future. Because despite all the agreements, the struggle for power continues, and there are very serious disagreements between the various political forces of the country about what the future of Egypt should be and how the country should build relations with its neighbors, including Israel. But, in any case, the victory of the Islamist is the best of all possible evils, because the Islamists represent a real force in Egypt.

Grigory Kosach, professor at the Center for Contemporary Oriental Studies at the Russian State University for the Humanities

“It’s too early to talk about fundamental changes in Egypt’s domestic and foreign policy”

Egyptian Islamists have a very clear idea - more social justice. And, most likely, this idea will begin to be implemented. Moreover, this idea is shared in principle by all participants in the political process in Egypt. But there is no need yet to expect any very drastic changes from the Islamist rule. There is a situation where the victorious president and those who stand behind him are in a state of very serious conflict with the Military Council. And the situation of this conflict is known, it is developing consistently: first of all, the Egyptian parliament was dissolved, a constitutional document was published that significantly limits the powers of the Egyptian president, today negotiations are underway between the victorious president and the Military Council, in which Baradei acts as a mediator (Mohamed ElBaradei - Director General of the IAEA, planned to run as a candidate for the presidency of Egypt - PP). So you still need to wait some time. Moreover, the victorious president has already stated that Egypt will maintain all existing agreements, that Egypt will maintain peaceful relations with all its neighbors. Naturally, if these neighbors do not attack him. The newly victorious president has already been welcomed by the American administration; Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel respects the choice of the Egyptian people. So let's wait. It is too early to talk about any serious changes in Egyptian domestic and foreign policy.