Who goes to rallies and why?

The head of the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM) Valery Fedorov and sociologist Olga Kryshtanovskaya, who recently created her own scientific foundation "Kryshtanovskaya Laboratory", presented two independent studies of protest participants, where they tried to predict the future of the opposition and the authorities.

Who are they?

Having interviewed participants in the “March of Millions” on June 12, sociologists came to the conclusion that the protest movement had become younger, wiser and radicalized. So, according to VTsIOM , now more than ⅔ of the protesters are under 34 years old. The overwhelming majority have higher or incomplete higher education (according to the Kryshtanovskaya Laboratory, about 70% versus 28% in Russia). “Now the terms ‘creative class’ and ‘hipsters’ are used to designate this social group,” Kryshtanovskaya clarified. “But in fact, this is quite clearly the intelligentsia, which has traditionally opposed the authorities, and all attempts at revolutions, some kind of social change have always come from from this group." Fedorov noted the exodus of the working class from the ranks of the opposition and the increase in the share of representatives of creative professions.

What do they want?

The VTsIOM study also notes that “for the vast majority of participants in the action (78%), self-realization is the primary value, for the sake of which they are ready to neglect the stability of their position.”

In addition, participants in the movement put forward demands for a radical change in the system. “Those who consider the protest ineffective have already stopped going to rallies,” the head of VTsIOM Valery Fedorov analyzes the results of the study. “Only those who in Soviet times were called “solid sparkists” or “fiery revolutionaries” remained. “The core of the protest” ( more than half of the respondents) - participants in three or more rallies - put forward demands, advocate a change of government and early presidential and parliamentary elections. According to Fedorov, this part of the protesters is not ready to negotiate with the authorities.

At the same time, according to Kryshtanovskaya, 40% of protesters give priority not to the fight against Putin (3% of respondents) and not against the system (25%), but against lawlessness, judicial arbitrariness - for the rule of law.

How are they coordinated?

Sociologists also noted a fairly high degree of unity among the protesters. “Two-thirds of the rally participants came to the rally in a group, an average of 19 people,” said Kryshtanovskaya. “This indicates the network origin of these groups. These are not parties - large groups where everyone knows each other. These are, rather, small online communities ".

According to a study by the Kryshtanovskaya Laboratory, 65% of respondents receive information about upcoming promotions on the Internet, with 40% of them from Facebook, 20% from Vkontakte, 18% from Twitter. About a quarter of respondents admitted that they do not give preference to any one social network and are present everywhere at once.

Who are their leaders?

VTsIOM also recorded a change in the group of leaders of the protest movement: Grigory Yavlinsky and Mikhail Prokhorov (in February 29% and 12%, respectively) gave way to Sergei Udaltsov and Ilya Yashin (in June 26% and 10%, respectively). VTsIOM named opposition leader Alexei Navalny as the undisputed leader of the rating, with 46% of respondents sympathizing with him.

“It is necessary to distinguish between popularity and support,” Kryshtanovskaya opposes VTsIOM. “And in our study, Navalny is in first place, and Udaltsov is in second place. But when we asked the participants who they came to support, a third did not know what to answer, others talked about people, themselves, dignity. 55.9% of respondents said that the opposition does not have a leader."

What to expect?

“In Russia, the young intelligentsia is stable in its protest views,” says Olga Kryshtanovskaya. “Therefore, there will be no decline in protest.” At the same time, according to the sociologist, it will be very difficult for the protest to develop a positive program, since the formation of a protest movement into a party with a clear ideology is impossible and will lead to fragmentation of the opposition along ideological lines: “A party is necessary, but impossible.”

“The leaders of the protest movement have already realized that there is no increase in the number of supporters,” Fedorov analyzes data from VTsIOM. “They are struggling to find ways out of this impasse, and there are three ways: Ponomarev, Gudkovs and others propose to structure themselves, that is, choose some kind of coordination advice. The path is quite difficult. As we know, there are a lot of leaders, and they can’t stand each other.” Another way, according to Fedorov, is to wait for situational changes in the country: deterioration of the economic situation, growth of social protest and mistakes on the part of the authorities.

Olga Kryshtanovskaya currently sees only two real threats to stability: a split in the elites and a possible economic crisis. “I don’t think that something can collapse, that the point of no return has been passed. The authorities will remain, they will not make mistakes that would lead to a serious numerical increase in the protest base. The authorities will be forced to democratize. And they are already doing this: the electoral legislation has been changed , direct elections of the governor have been introduced, the registration of parties has been facilitated. This is the government’s reaction to criticism of the opposition.”

At the same time, according to the sociologist, the situation at the moment remains alarming: “Since society has polarized into opposing political groups, both sides use the slightest action on the part of the enemy in order to stigmatize him and cause some kind of upsurge, a feeling of protest from citizens."