Andrey Levkin: Ukraine is as if worried

In Wednesday, energetic messages appeared in the Russian media space: they adopted such a law on the language that mass protests begin, in Kyiv 5,000 riot police from Berkut surrounded the opposition rally, the speaker of the Rada Litvin was resigned, President Yanukovych is about to dissolve the Rada, etc. Some clarification of the situation.

Formal side. The law, which was already adopted in the second reading, is called "on the foundations of the state language policy." It is not about the introduction of Russian as a second state, this is about the expansion of the right of regional languages ​​- this refers to their introduction into state defense in areas where such languages ​​are native to half (or something) of the population.

It's not only about Russian. In particular, the Crimean Tatar language can become regional in Crimea, Hungarian-in the Transcarpathian region, Romanian in Chernivtsi. The expansion of rights suggests that the authorities officially publish their decisions in Ukrainian, regional languages ​​and minority languages. They themselves choose citizens in what language, along with Ukrainian, their passports, marriage certificates, etc. will be issued.

The degree of idealism laid down in the law cannot be evaluated from the side, so you should not climb into the topic, only the most common frame. In principle, this is a law that the Council of Europe - the Eurohartia of Languages ​​from Ukraine, then yes, yes. The opposition’s objections to the law were that everything is fine, only Russian should be excluded from the list of languages. Because his recognition as regional poses a threat to Ukrainian. In general, it should not be mentioned in any government papers. Well, yes: everyone is talking on it, but officially in the country it does not seem to exist.

Yes, there were two cases when the Eurohartia did not spread to Russian. In Estonia and in Latvia. There, the EU was convinced that there is a problem like the consequences of occupation in the person of importing troops, migrants, members of their families, descendants and so on. It was difficult to prove a certain conviction there, but it is difficult to prove that Ukraine was occupied by the USSR.

Another argument is that there are so many Russians that oh. And what, for this reason, their language should not be taken into account? Why, in fact, is not the other way around? Well, the opposition claims (not without reason) that the Russian will introduce Russian and as the second state. But so far the law is not about that, and here - if there are so many Russians that they can carry out the introduction of Russian as the second state, then this is probably a certain reality? In Finland there are two state and nothing, the situation does not depend on the law, but rather. It is unlikely that the Russians should change all their ethnic identity because they arose in the territory, which later became Ukraine in the current borders? And all this despite the fact that in life this separating the abyss is not felt in any way. In a word, an extremely intimate ontological business - let them deal with him there themselves.

A variety of brutality

It can be assumed that the party that energetically held the law was very brutal in its actions. But on the other hand, there are active feelings. After the law was adopted, O. Telnibok on behalf of his “Freedom” declared national mobilization to give a “rebuff to the aggressors”. In connection with which he remembered and actualized by the statement of Yuri Ilyenko (film director, from the “White Bird with the Black Mark” to the “Prayer for Hetman Mazepa”, plus the operator at Parajanov in the “shadows of forgotten ancestors”), made by him two years ago, shortly before his death. Ilyenko proposed adopting the "Constitutional Law on the National Information Space of Ukraine."

It is also energetic there: “ With the mandatory article that the exclusive right to work in the national Ukrainian space belongs to the state language of Ukraine ... If you want to work in Russian, - please, as in the Bessarabka, or in the air over Luxembourns, or in the casino - for green crusts. And considerable. Do you want English, Yiddish, Surzhik Verka Serdom, please unfasten Advertising, make the profit from profit, pay for losses.

This, of course, is the translation, the original here. Of course, it is not claimed that Yu.Ilyenko’s position in terms of the totalitarian-ethnic state shares all Ukrainian-speaking ones. This is only to the fact that there are usually passions there about this. And this is strange not only because there are no household grounds for them, but the passions revived 20 years after they had already happened a little. Well, perhaps there now someone decided that the time had come to clarify the state identity-and even more not more delicately in this topic. Therefore, further the purely technical details of the political process. What is there with the new revolution, Maidan, elections, etc.

Tuesday, adopted the law

"For" 248 out of 364 deputies voted. The nuance is that on the eve of the speaker V. Litvin assured that nothing could be accepted before the holidays (from July 7), the commission did not bring amendments. But there was another scenario. The leader of the Party of Regions, A. Efremov, did not admit that "if the committee does not consider this bill within 30 days and does not make any decision, then the parliament has the right to consider this document in the session hall." In short, "if we consider it necessary to do this, then at the end of the week we will have the right to do this." This is what played.

The adoption of the law was accompanied by the opposition’s attempt to block the presidium, but - belated. They did not correlate with the situation, which was that the evening meeting was opened by A. Martynyuk, and not V. Litvin. That evening was not even in the Rada, he went to the president, to a meeting of the Humanitarian Council. Well, Martynyuk raised the question of including the language bill on the agenda - what the aforementioned A. Efremov demanded. It was then that the opposition had already realized what was going on, rushing to fight, tore off all the microphones in the Presidium of Rada. But the savvy A. Martynyuk launched a vote from the place of V. Litvin, it took place, the results appeared on the scoreboard, and that’s all.

After the vote happened, the regional of Chechetov told reporters: " Evaluate the beauty of the game. We divorced them like kittens. I do not know what they will do in the elections ." Well, yes, despite all the statements of the opposition that they will not allow the second reading, including physical opposition, everything has passed. There is real, after the adoption of the law in the first reading, the opposition justified himself for almost two weeks and explained how it happened that they could not block the rostrum. The explanation was that the law somehow unexpectedly began to vote that they did not realize. They promised that this would not happen for the second time. But now-it happened, and is there any system?

Moreover, even the press noted that the regional, "who usually take part in power confrontations," took places in the government bed, closer to the presidium - they prevented the opposition from disrupting the vote.

Protests

Then the protests began. A. Yatsenyuk said that the law was adopted with a large number of violations. They look like this: “ Firstly, this bill was not on the agenda. Secondly, the voting procedures for the inclusion of it on the agenda did not occur. The third-more than 2 thousand amendments were introduced into this law. Fourth-the relevant parliamentary committee did not prepare the comparative table. And the fifth-everything that could be violated when adopting this law was violated .” Here the regulatory damp begins, the same Efremov reported in advance that " if the comparative table of the bill for the second reading was not prepared, the law will be voted in the option in which it was adopted in the first reading ." Well, these details are already too unnecessary - we are talking about the fact that the script has worked, and that’s all. And to explain why the opposition again did everything, referring to violations, is not cool.

After the vote, four deputies from NUNS said they began a hunger strike near a Ukrainian house. The leader of the party "For Ukraine" V. Kirilenko (like - one of them) promised that the deputies would starve "until the so -called majority will cancel this law." According to his announcement, the deputies will continue the hunger strike until the law is canceled - despite the fact that on July 6, the closing of the 10th session of the parliament is planned and the next time it will gather in September.

Closer to the night, O. Tyagnibok announced the " national mobilization to repulse the aggressors " and called everyone to the Ukrainian house (this is at the end of the bog, on the European Assemean Square). Toward evening, there was something similar to a protest rally, which even switched to a clash with Berkut. The nuance was that on the next morning, on Wednesday, the press conference of V. Yanukovych was to be held in the Ukrainian house. Here are law enforcement officers and worried. Everything, in general, looked quite seriously.

V. Yanukovych wants to exhaust all the possibilities

V. Yanukovych did not go to the Ukrainian house, postponed the press conference and met with the leaders of the parliament and factions, at which there were no representatives of the opposition. Where he made a statement, indirectly assuming early elections. Well, in this form: before moving on to the procedure of early parliamentary elections " we must exhaust all our possibilities ." He means negotiations in the factions between deputies, negotiations with the heads of the opposition factions and with the head of the Verkhovna Rada. Before that, " we cannot discuss any other issues."

At the same time, V. Yanukovych believes that if the parliament is still able to work, then negotiations should be carried out in between, " moving forward on the agenda ." Since the session of the Rada is closed on July 6, there was an offer not to fuss and solve everything in negotiations during the parliamentary holidays.

As for his attitude to the law, now he does not want to draw conclusions, but will study this situation and conduct an examination of the law. Finally, his opinion is formulated as follows: " I never intervened and do not interfere in the work of the Verkhovna Rada. But I am interested in the stability of the situation in the country in general ." In other words, if you have to declare early elections, then he will do it.

Speaker Litvin performs kafka

On Wednesday, it turned out that the speaker of the Verkhovna Rada V. Litvin announced his resignation. He did it right in the hall of Rada, lyrical: “ Yesterday at 14:30 I was invited to a meeting of the president. It ended about 20 hours. At the same time, as one people's deputy said, they divorced them like kittens. They divorced me first. But by and large, they divorced Ukraine, they divorced the people. And we will still be reaping the fruits of this“ divorce. resignation ".

Words are not a statement yet, but he did not submit it. But it is precisely this decision of Litvin, if it is formally implemented, and will create a parliamentary crisis. You can’t choose a new speaker, this requires 300 votes, do not find. Moreover, if the speaker was in the Rada, then after 15 days the law on languages ​​would be automatically considered signed - regardless of the presence of the signature signature. Otherwise, the document simply cannot leave the Rada to sign the president. Actually, not a single law can get out of the parliament then, its activity is paralyzed. So V. Litvin can not only create a crisis, but also block the president with the opportunity to return the law to the Radu - he will not even receive it.

Most immediately began to fuss, adopting a law on a change in the regulations of the leadership of the parliament. Now the election and dismissal of the speaker is accepted by an open vote 226 voices. That's just this vote cannot unlock anything - changes to the regulation can enter into force only after they are signed by the head of the Verkhovna Rada, that is, the same V. Litvin. Or a new speaker, but - still chosen as a law. Actually, I wonder how the speaker can resign due to the fact that the law adopted by the majority does not support? This is just the devil knows what.

They were going to deal with this on Thursday there, but the option is quite obvious when let Litvin write a resignation statement, the majority does not claim to be a resignation, he doesn’t do anything there, but formally is listed as a speaker, which is why they go to the president with a delay of 15 days, everything works, no crisis and early elections.

If suddenly the election is still

July ratings (on average) at the "regions" and "Fatherland" (now this is the opposition in total, there Yatsenyuk and Gritsenko)-about 27-28% (from voting). Klitschko and his "blow" is 8- 10%, KPU- 7-8%. Somewhere near 5% of the passage-"Freedom" and N. Korolevskaya with its "Ukraine-forward!".

If you put it on power-opposition, it turns out approximately equally, and Klitschko turns out to be almost a key character. At least for the opposition, since they are not quite clear to them. He, like. Against the authorities, but the union (that under the label of the "Fatherland") did not go. Moreover, he recently stated at a press conference that the “blow” insists on the rating selection of candidates for people's deputies in majority districts from the opposition. And this is when the combined list of majoritors there is not without problems already compiled.

Actually, Klitschko can be understood - he has not yet gone to the Rada, well, he wants to get there on his own. In general, while his Messide boils down to the fact that he is a new face in Ukrainian politics, after which he clarifies his excellent qualities. There is no other content yet. However, yes, he is also against the authorities. Generally.

A gift of the opposition

Immediately after the vote, the regional Sergei Kivalov said that the opposition received a gift in the form of the adoption of a "linguistic" law: " Now they have a new reason for criticism, for political speculation and their favorite business - rallies ." What is the complete truth, but is this a big gift too much?

It is clear that it depends on how the opposition will dispose of this chance. On Tuesday evening, they had enthusiasm. V. Klichko immediately arrived in the European Square to support the Ukrainian language. He stated that " today was the day of the political suicide of the Parliament of the current convocation ," he called for the Radu, and the president - to impose a veto on the adopted law. According to rumors, on Wednesday in the morning he even suffered from tear gas.

On Wednesday, A. Yatsenyuk, N. Tomenko, A. Gritsenko joined the rally - yes, they are trying to use the situation. But it is not yet clear what could be with the dissolution of the Rada and how much the opposition is ready for this, even if A. Yatsenyuk immediately reported that the opposition was ready to present the first 50 candidates from the list. He also added that, according to his calculations, a large -scale economic crisis awaits Ukraine in a few months - that is, the opposition does not calculate the situation with the Law on languages. Moreover, they also require the conduct of simultaneous early parliamentary and presidential elections - which also does not speak of confidence in the results of parliamentary. It is clear that this idea is meaningless, V. Yanukovych does not want to resign at all, and why?

That is, the opposition does not show confidence in tomorrow. Moreover, activity on the European Square is not at all reminiscent of the Maidan. It does not remind. It is not even known whether the deputies who announced this on Tuesday continue to starve.

But here is another story. If the situation hangs with the law, then this will determine the main theme of the election. And then a more or less understandable state of political forces will be reformatted. As a result, the authorities will clearly lose such an asset as the successful holding of the euro, but the opposition resumes all its failures.

Another thing is that inside the opposition is also not easy: the difference in their approaches will be leveled. For example, what will happen to V. Klichko? Earlier, he held the rating at the expense of his novelty, and having made a statement by law - no longer distinguished from the rest of the opposition, which, however, is not included. Not to mention the fact that he can lose Russian -speaking voters - however, the structure of his electorate is not entirely clear, he has not yet passed through the general Ukrainian elections.

As a result, the situation now looks like the elections can pass "from scratch." Only one position will be taken into account - the attitude to the Law on languages. Which, in general, is completely mysterious and certainly incomprehensible who needs.