What will happen next.....

Some time ago I wrote a post “Putin will not leave...”, in which I quite accurately predicted the development of events to this day. Despite the fact that my post then caused a very mixed reaction, I think today everyone who is able to think and analyze has understood that the post was correct and that events will develop exactly as I said. What makes me especially happy is that my thoughts are finally beginning to reach some of the most sane opposition leaders (for example, Gudkov), and they are beginning to propose something somewhat reminiscent of a strategy. Therefore, I decided to tell you what will happen next while there is such an opportunity and while the Echo website is not closed.

1). Today the Duma will adopt amendments to the law on information, which will allow blocking opposition sites. We will all, of course, be indignant, scream, stomp our feet, write angry comments, but this will not change anything. The authorities don’t care about this and will grind it away...

2). In the near future, well-known changes to the law on non-profit organizations will come into force, also despite general indignation.

3). The article about libel will be returned, and perhaps someone will even be exemplarily punished for it. And it doesn’t matter that it is almost impossible to collect evidence for slander. In our “most independent and fair court in the world,” which gives a fine for the murder of 12 people, and 7 years for an “incorrect” prayer service, no problems with evidence will arise.

All this does not mean that the country will immediately turn into “totalitarian North Korea.” No, everything will happen very gradually, so as not to cause an explosion of mass indignation. Opposition sites will not be blocked simultaneously, one at a time, and not immediately forever, but first for a while... And so on, all measures will be applied not totally, but selectively, like all the norms of our legislation. We, of course, will make noise, be indignant, sometimes even go to rallies, which the authorities will either harshly disperse or allow quite gently. We will see that nothing is changing and we will gradually get tired of all this hectic activity and understand that it is absolutely useless. The focus will gradually shift, that is, if earlier we regarded as a victory the fact that something would change as a result of a rally, then soon the very fact of holding a rally will already be regarded as a victory... Why am I so pessimistic? Because facts are stubborn things, and no matter how you encourage yourself, you can’t turn a blind eye to them for long.

Now about the main thing, why all this is happening and what to do. It’s very simple, the opposition made a lot of mistakes, and that’s why they lost this battle. It is obvious that she did not hold large rallies for a very long time and did not feel the support of the population. Therefore, she shouted that she didn’t hit, and didn’t think about the real program for victory. And suddenly, having received some already tangible support from society and having gathered the first big rally on Bolotnaya, she continued to behave within the framework of the old paradigm - that is, she did not offer a real constructive program, but continued to shout, putting more and more odious personalities in the stands. In fact, all other rallies, except the first on Bolotnaya and the second on Sakharov, were a mistake. Why? It's very simple. All these rallies had one simple task, to get as many people out of the streets as possible, since there was a feeling that if a lot of people came out, the government would “somehow” fall by itself... Why should it fall? How? What does somehow mean? Who will pick her up when she falls? None of the opposition leaders asked these questions. There was a feeling that shouting “Down with Putin” loudly enough would make Putin run away with his tail between his legs. He won’t run away anywhere, you need to understand that.

The opposition tried to talk to the authorities in the language of ultimatums, rather than trying to negotiate, saying “here are our demands, and we are ready to discuss their implementation,” which, of course, did not work. Well, because in order to put forward ultimatums, you need to have power, which the opposition did not have, does not have and will not have in the foreseeable future.

The opposition also did not bother to institutionalize itself, to create some kind of real party. When she was offered cooperation by sane politicians like Prokhorov and Kudrin, who could be accepted by the authorities under certain circumstances, the opposition proudly and irreconcilably rejected them. The opposition consistently blocked itself from all possible options for action, except for the one that led it to the impasse in which it now finds itself. What to do? We must admit mistakes and create a winning strategy. Strategy is a multi-step combination, shouting: “Give us fair elections!!!”, this is not a strategy... It is necessary to negotiate, create strategic alliances, sacrifice something, give up something, move away from your own ideological dogmas, offer options on a “win-win” basis that were beneficial to all parties. Well, or you can continue to become more radical and marginal and hope that the regime itself will fall when oil prices collapse.....