Looking back a hundred years...

Exorbitant penalties have been introduced for any attempt to organize or participate in a street protest. They complicated the activities of non-profit organizations involved in politics. Yesterday, under the pretext of protecting children from the Internet, a decision was made to block objectionable political resources on the Internet. They are returning an article on slander to the Criminal Code, which will be purposefully applied against attempts to call crooks around the government crooks and criticize any government. Now, judging by the statements of the new Minister of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Mr. Kolokoltsev, they also intend to strictly control foreigners on Russian territory, limiting the possibility of Russian oppositionists interacting with them...

What exactly happens next? What to expect, what new tightening of policing?

I believe that opposition activity will move underground. Not in one day, but in a year we will get a new alignment of the opposition structure in Russia. The petty hundred-party bustle, a certain number of public opposition figures will remain visible, protest statements will be regularly generated, lamentations about the suppression of political freedoms, etc. will continue. But all this will mean absolutely nothing, since real opposition activity will be hidden from view.

Find a history textbook of the CPSU. Read about 1907. Onset of reaction. Disputes between liquidators and otzovists...

“Punitive detachments and military courts raged everywhere... Thousands of participants in the revolutionary struggle were executed, tens of thousands were sentenced to hard labor... The number of members of legal trade unions fell from 245 thousand at the beginning of 1907 to 13 thousand by the end of 1909... Active workers were put on “black lists”... The Tsarist secret police intensively planted provocateurs who spied inside revolutionary organizations and betrayed revolutionaries... Mass arrests of party members began... The workers' press was strangled... Ties between party organizations weakened... The government needed an obedient Duma... Tsarism, the landowners, the bourgeoisie and their parties waged frenzied chauvinistic agitation... Clericalism was active... There was a dull ferment among the masses..."

What happened during that period? The RSDLP balanced between otzovist and liquidationist tendencies in its struggles and debates. Some party members (otzovists) demanded to completely leave the Black Hundred legal platforms for the revolutionary underground. The other part (liquidators) insisted on a complete renunciation of “illegal” actions. They say, let’s negotiate with the authorities, exhort them through speeches and in the authorized press, and seek political relief. Processions are only peaceful and permitted. Etc. Lenin carried both over the bumps, insisting on a balance between the legal and illegal. As a result, the Social Democrats listened to him and kept both. Although the main activity was hidden underground, legal channels of influencing the masses were also used to the maximum.

If something like this happens now, secretly prepared actions will increasingly come as a surprise to the authorities and their devoted watchdogs. Negotiations on phones with unregistered numbers. Anonymous cell leaders under pseudonyms. Conspiracy meetings with preliminary clearing of “tails” and May Day under the guise of going to the river with barbecue. False mustaches and wigs. Databases on foreign servers. Well-established system of uncontrolled financing. Clandestine printing houses that allow you to quickly and secretly print copies of leaflets and political brochures. An intricate and flexible system of permanent and disposable sites and online magazines, which does not allow us to identify the sources of revealing fakes or track the threads thrown through some Paraguay.

So I think that the authorities are probably preparing for something like this. Perhaps, projects for new amendments to laws are already being born. From the above it follows that the rule-making attack on opposition activity can now go in this direction. It will be quite in the spirit of 1907 that the power of the secret police will increase. Those. The police's ability to eavesdrop, spy, and install hidden cameras and microphones will expand. It will be allowed to open mail (regular and online), block communications, conduct surprise searches in any desired premises, detain and hold any desired person under flimsy pretexts or without explanation at all. The ability of lawyers to intervene will be limited.

This can still be done, but it is difficult. Court sanctions are needed, motivations are required, excuses have to be made in terms of encroaching on human rights, etc. It will soon become very simple. Putin orders, the Duma will vote. Explain the need for protection from extremism and the interests of children. Take a look for yourself, the draft budget has already included a further increase in funding for law enforcement and security forces, a very significant one. Apparently, there will be an increase in numbers, feeder occupancy and technical equipment. The number of murderers and robbers in the country is not growing. For whose sake is the increase planned, with whom are they going to intensify the fight? The answer, I think, is obvious...