Great -power whirlwind

It is impossible to understand the essence of the Kremlin’s behavior without evaluating its foreign policy and foreign policy ideology. The most important element of state historiosophy, "sold" by the population, is "Russophobia" - the idea that the West always for some reason* hates Russia, envies it and seeks to harm it. The teaching is irrational ** and therefore very convenient. The main thing is that it projects the psychological car model of the inhabitants of the Kremlin, old and Smolensk squares to the outside world: we are good, we are in your soul, and you want to offend us.

After the wilting of the Soviet Union even after in 1994, the young “democratic” Russia was tired of being a younger ally of the United States, a new ecological niche for diplomacy was almost to be found - to be a mediator between the West and what was later called the “axis of evil”. There must be a full -fledged "axis" for this. 22 years ago, it was where Iraq, Iran, Libya, Syria, North Korea were walking around ... The position of the "honest McLan" is an important and respected in any community where there is a cruel struggle, but there is a mind that makes a compromise.

Unfortunately, the special services, the intriguing genesis of the post -resistant ruling class imposed its indelible seal to the efforts of Moscow. In the fall of 1990, in the midst of the crisis around the Kuwait occupied by Iraq, Moscow, on the one hand, supported the Anti -Saddam coalition and “properly voted in the UN Security Council, but, on the other hand, Hussein continuously waggered - they say, hold on, brother. Everything went like the written: confident that at the last moment Moscow would not leave him, Baghdad refused any compromises, and the military operation became inevitable. Having heard his Arabists, secretly adoring the Baas party, Gorbachev decided that the Western coalition was prepared for the Second Vietnam, it would be bogged down in the quagmire of the counter-partisan war and will soon be ready for everything, if only the USSR with its strong Arabic connections helped to worthy of a dead end. Therefore, two days before the expiration of the term of ultimatum Hussein, Soviet troops conducted an operation to capture the Vilnius TV tower. The perestroika government of Nikolai Ryzhkov was resigned, and the set of figures was brought to power that later almost without a trace entered the State Emergency Committee. But instead of the American offensive and flame of the People’s War, Gorbachev received mass demonstrations demanding his resignation. The Americans, without moving, tested the doctrine of the Douis about the victory at the expense of some attacks from the air. At the peak of Antigorbachev performances, America conducted a 100-hour operation ended with the collapse of the Iraqi army and the liberation of Kuwait. And stopped. And Gorbachev was left alone with the strikeing miners, who was preparing to become Russian President Yeltsin, carefully knocked out by his junta, empty treasury and triumphal America. Further is well known. But suppose that already in August 1990, Moscow would clearly make it clear that the occupation of Kuwait is unacceptable, and the military operation to liberate the emirate is justified and fair. Perhaps, in this case, Saddam would recede, satisfied with the symbolic correction of borders and a fair bunch from the Arabian monarchies. But this did not happen, and the way to the two Iraqi wars was opened ***.

The next, already completed provocation was the policy of Yeltsin and Primakov regarding Belgrade in the winter of 1999. Russian diplomacy sinusoidally hesitated from the support of Milosevich to a demonstration of unity with the West and vice versa. In the beat of these fluctuations, Belgrade either activated punitive operations in Kosovo, then promised a peaceful settlement. In the end, in February 1999 in Rambuya, the West presented Belgrad Ultimatum with a demand to immediately stop, let’s say, “Chechen options” to combat separatism. The Ambassador of Russia to France also signed it. Russia agreed with the delegation of the UN Council of Mandate to use the Former Yugoslavia Force force. The road to the military operation was open. But then, Milosevich was again winced again, and he proudly refused to obey. A month later, Primakov had to unfold the plane over the Atlantic. But the sweet anticipation of how America is humiliatingly bogged down in a partisan war with heroic Serbs also ended with zilch. America again applied the doctrine of the due. Primakov was dismissed and political non -existence, and Chernomyrdin hastily played the role of the illustrious shuttle diplomat Kissinger, persuading Milosevich to surrender.

Later, in the summer of 1999, the chairman of the foreign policy council, Sergei Karaganov, will tell on television that all this was a tricky game in order to return Moscow to the Center for World Politics.

Further is also known. On June 11, 1999, Bulgaria and Romania refused to skip the sides with the Russian contingent to Protina, leaving there 200 paratroopers. “Western Berlin” in the North Kosovo did not work, and Russia did not become the nervous center of European politics and the standard bearer of Pan Slavism. After a year and a half, the deceived Milosevich was overthrown. After another 9 years, the West recognized the sovereignty and independence of Kosovo. And only Belgrade had to be encouraged in March 1999, forcing Miloshevich to come to terms with Autonomy Kosovo. Obviously, Serbia would not have been bombing, and the Serbian minority would receive the best guarantees of its rights - up to the administrative attachment of enclaves to the metropolis.

The next, no less inspired provocation again became against Iraq. Moscow voted in the Council of Council for the ultimatum of Baghdad, or rolled grandiose scandals about American "raids" on Hussein. Then the logical invasion of Iraq began. The plans of the Moscow connoisseurs of the Arab world failed again - the Baasist regime collapsed at the speed and irreversibility of the Nazi in the spring of 1945. The partisan war this time broke out, and the Bush Jr. found the second Vietnam for America. But in Iraq, the war went with al-Qaeda and Shiite revolutionaries. Neither those nor the others wanted to see an ally in Moscow. Moscow plan also failed to create a pan -European anti -American coalition with the participation of France and Germany. Russia again was not in the center of global policy.

Libya was a little more lucky. Medvedev liked to improvise. In addition, he needed the support of America and France in case of a nomination for a second term. Support was received. Medvedev once realized that in the modern world, the ruler, who shot a peaceful movement of protest, is a living corpse. And Russia did not prevent the adoption of a resolution on the "pure sky". As a result, the Libyans were silent for six months. However, if it were not for Lavrov's hysteria about the inadmissibility of the land operation, this period would become shorter than two times.

But on the other hand, Putin, who returned to the feeder, decided to correct the omissions of his predecessor, building a policy against Syria. Diligently resurrected policy of Nicholas I and a half years ago - the protection of any sovereign lord and his right of "his subjects and to mercy and execute" **** - forced Moscow to support Bashar al -Assad with all her might. Although Moscow was offered a rather decent option-the executioner of Assad Jr. is cleaned in Minsk or Karakas, they create a transitional room where secular technocrats will be from the Baasists, and someone is more permanent from the opposition. But this option unpleasantly reminded the Kremlin of the Kudrinsky round table. And Russia mentioned its fundamental position: the Syrian people themselves must determine the fate of Assad. As a result, instead of a round table, fights in Damascus occur. And Assad, instead of the miserable fate of a fugitive monarch, received a generous choice between the versions of Milosevich, Hussein and Gaddafi.

Now, having lost Syria, Moscow intensively provokes an attack on Iran - the last element of such a powerful “evil axis” more recently. And it is clear that after the fall of the Akhmadinejad regime, Russia will completely lose the opportunity to trade “with a substantial and removal” by his trophy veto in the UN Security Council. It was Moscow, playing along with Iran and at the same time without interfering with the escalation of sanctions, according to the already well -developed scenario, the situation brought the situation to the verge of the armed conflict. Finally, Tehran still wants to ruin Moscow $ 4 billion for disruption of the deliveries of the famous S-300 missiles. 13 years ago they were threatened to support Milosevich. Then they threatened to support Akhmadinejad. But the Kremlin understands what surnames the “Magnitsky List” would begin if at least one American aircraft was shot down by a Russian rocket, and at the last moment they retreat, leaving a sovereign tyrant alone with the American military.

From all that has been said, three conclusions can be drawn. First. The foreign policy of Russia, as a Mcler between the West and the anti -Western dictators, endlessly ended. So the career of the mafia lawyer after the arrest of the leader of the group ends.

Second. Minor betrayal is the basis of Russia's foreign policy. Perhaps this is simply the inertia of the general policy, when the main content of the internal vicissitudes of the period of reforms (Gorbachev, Yeltsin, Early Putin, Medvedev) becomes a consistent betrayal of both reformers and conservatives.

Third. The only tactical technique mastered by the Kremlin is to inflate the conflict by encouraging both parties. It is already evident how this manifests itself in domestic politics: a zigzag from winter Susyukani about civil activity to spring repression. And the country entered into an atmosphere of the Cold Civil War. Actually, both members of United Russia and the police officer officials need to understand: at the first opportunity, they will be handed over (enraged by the grass of protest movement) with the same grace with which the fraternal regimes were passed.

* Orthodox fundamentalists know - out of envy of Holy Rus'. But what secular national conservatives think is a riddle for me: not because of the rivalry with England for Afghanistan and Persia, which has been drawn from the 19th century.

** Freeze from this trouble is not difficult - it must be imagined that exactly 112 years ago for the Chinese Russia was an equal participant in the Western Anti -Chinese conspiracy, and 100 years ago - for a German - an equal part of the English anti -German conspiracy. Moreover, both the Chinese and the German were partly right.

*** In this reality, the throne of Hussein would only have shocked the Arab Spring of 2011.

**** Tsar Ivan Vasilievich formulated this doctrine in a letter to the defector to Prince Kurbsky. After 450 years, this will be called sovereign democracy.