The ruble got lost in the currency corridor

After one -day respite, the ruble continued the fall. The dollar rate came close to the mark of 33 rubles, the euro - to 40. The Russian currency was not very helped by either expensive oil or the tax period, characterized by increased demand for rubles. The Central Bank, on the other hand, expands the boundaries of the currency corridor, demonstrating the willingness to further lower the ruble the weighted average of the dollar to the ruble, according to which the official Central Bank’s official rate has grown by 33 kopecks, amounting to 32.96 rubles. The euro went up by 23 kopecks, to 39.82 rubles. During the morning trading, the dollar stepped over 33 rubles. But by 12.30, the ruble played a little its position: the dollar cost 32.62 rubles, the euro - 39.64 rubles.

Local, short -term corrections of the course do not cancel the main trend: the ruble is actively cheaper. It’s not even believed that back in early May, the dollar cost only 30 rubles-today it is already 10% cheaper. The Central Bank recognized the obvious fact on July 25, which for the first time since December 2011 changed the boundaries of the currency corridor - from 6 to 7 rubles. Now the oscillations of the ruble are possible in the region from 31.65 to 38.65 rubles. on the bivalyut basket (55% of its cost is the dollar, 45% - euros). At the same time, the regulator announced a decrease in the volume of daily interventions from $ 500 million to $ 450 million. The Central Bank clearly does not intend to throw billions into the ephemeral maintenance of the national currency in difficult economic conditions.

At the same time, the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Sergey Ignatiev, as befits the status of the country's chief banker, shows public optimism. “I do not see a problem at the current level of volatility of the ruble,” he said in an interview with the British Financial Times.

However, independent experts consider the current fall in the ruble to be very alarming from the point of view of real economic processes. It is significant that the ruble is getting cheaper not only in relation to the dollar, but also to the euro - despite the fact that the European currency is currently experiencing tremendous problems. But if the ruble is ready to fall even in relation to the countries of the euro zone of the Unified European currency, which is exhausted by debt crises, then the question involuntarily arises of the degree of stability of the Russian monetary unit.

It should also be taken into account that for the ruble now an extremely winning position within the country: in full swing, the tax period, when the demand for national currency (in which, in fact, is paid within the country) for companies - Russian residents - is noticeably growing. But this does not hold the ruble from the fall.

Finally, the ruble falls, even despite some growth of oil quotes. Say, over the past day, Brent oil has increased by 0.6%, to $ 104.74 per barrel.

So what makes the ruble so desperately lose in price at the moment when, it would seem, he has every chance to strengthen? Specialists of the Center for the Development of the Higher School of Economics gave their answer to this question: if earlier the key factor on which the ruble was dependent was exclusively the cost of oil, now the second equally important factor was added to it - the outflow of capital from the country. Judging by this indicator, our country is still in a deep crisis. The Central Bank calculated: for three quarters in a row from September 2008 to March 2009 (that is, in the midst of a crisis), $ 75 billion flowed from the country, and over the last three quarters - already $ 73 billion. Before the end of the year it is expected that at least $ 90 billion will run away from the country.

Experts of the Center for Development consider the so -called “100/90” scenario, which is possible while maintaining oil prices at the level of $ 100 per barrel and the flight of capital in the amount of $ 90 billion a year. “The outflow of capital reduces investment resources, the tendency of enterprises to invest their own funds remains low, and liquidity problems begin in the banking sector,” the director of the Development Center Natalya Akindinova characterizes this scenario. In this case, GDP will only grow by 3% this year (instead of 4–4.5% planned by the government) and fall by 2.6% in the following. In addition, experts predict the devaluation of the ruble by another 10% by the end of this year. “Judging by the dynamics of industry, devaluation in May did not lead to an increase in competitiveness. Apparently, this is rather determined by a poor investment climate and outdated technologies, ”Akindinova believes.

How to stop the outflow of capital is well known: we need cardinal changes in the investment climate within Russia. In recent months, the president and prime minister have been talking a lot about this, but they still do little for this. As a result, most experts are convinced: in the second half of the year, our national currency will be depreciated even faster - a course of 37–37.5 rubles. For the dollar until the end of 2012, it may well become a reality.