: Dmitry Oreshkin: "Putin has no problems"

Political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin told Polit.ru that in the future we will find a return to the Soviet Union in a particular script. According to the expert, if the state has chosen the path of repression and “twisting of the nuts”, it will not be possible to get off it later.

Dmitry Borisovich, it does not seem to you that the laws on toughening punishments for violations at rallies, amendments to the laws of NGOs, the media, the return of punishment for slander - does all this look somewhat hasty from the authorities?

For more than a decade, Russia has not known such a level of protest mood, such a sharply growing rejection of Putin’s actions. The authorities reacted with the highest possible speed.

And where does all this rejection, discontent, which was not there before? What's happened?

The balance of relations between the authorities and citizens was violated. Sooner or later, the requests of society are growing, there is a need to increase investments in the economy, people begin to wish for more attention to themselves. Putin is “sharpened” to something opposite. The heir to the Soviet regime, he exploits the country's resources, including human, to solve his political and ideological problems. And here there is a conflict: people want more and more, and we give them power less and less.

People demand not only money that Putin understands, they require respect, honest elections, change of power, or at least the possibility of changing power. They begin to see the meaning in protecting their rights, and so on.

And was this conflict predictable?

Certainly. Society simply tired of believing in a fairy tale about Russia rising from the knees. It gets tired of believing in its dependence on power. It begins to seem to people that they themselves earn apartments, cars, and do not receive them as a gift from Vladimir Vladimirovich.

Is this mechanism fair for any society?

This mechanism is fair for any country where the modern economic model is being implemented. People begin to present more and more requirements for management effectiveness, including the management of the country where they live. And sooner or later, any Lukashenko, Putin or Kim Jong Iris ceases to satisfy people and elites.

Well, our elites are now loyal to power, at least outwardly.

Yes, this is the period when the loyalty of citizens staggered, and the elites are loyal. In such a period, there always occurs “twisting of the nuts”, which we observe in the above laws. This is the process of trying to solve a fundamental problem - citizens are unhappy.

That is, the authorities postponed the “gingerbread” and took up the “whip”?

Gingerbread doesn't work anymore. Positive incentives for building support are exhausted. Only economic ties are understandable to Putin and his environment. I'm talking about the connection between the loyalty and income of the population. The authorities today would be ready to increase the income level, but the higher the income level, the higher the interest for citizens in the most complete realization of their civil rights. If you still increase salaries now, this will not cause delight in society. Yes, and you can’t increase salaries at once, the economy is not so rapidly developing. And the volume of requirements is growing violently.

What to do, tighten the nuts even more?

Exactly. But there are two exits. One option is to radically change political management. That is, Putin should leave. Its manual management of the country is not able to ensure efficiency simply technically. Another option, if Putin cannot leave (and he cannot, his whole team will be at the threat of persecution, they will immediately remember Yukos, falsification of the elections and other and other) and positive incentives do not work, which means that it remains to increase their support using more and more negative incentives.

Is this how to “go to Stalinism” turns out?

Well, yes, without serious and mass repressions they cannot solve this problem. To shut someone, send someone, censorship, to be silent, limit the Internet (protest takes on a network character and is associated with informing), and disperse more or less independent people from the media. All this is very natural. And here the design rhetoric is not at all important, which will repeat that everything is done to strengthen the state, lifting from the knees, for the sake of peace and good. All this will be forced, and there is nothing surprising or unpredictable in this. In the end, they will have to create an atmosphere of total fear, when everyone was afraid - just like under Stalin.

And, you think, these measures may be sufficient to provide power for a long time, and therefore its regime, stability?

Tactically - unconditionally. On a certain period of time. Now, after all, how, 100 thousand went out into the streets, dispersed, 200 thousand went out - they dispersed. All this is still flowers. The berries will begin when the stratification begins in the power itself. Suddenly, at some point, it turns out that not everyone wants to get on the Magnitsky list, someone simply does not want to stir their hands in the blood and sabotage will begin in power. At the same time, we will most likely not see a more powerful wave of popular anger in this case. Rather, on the contrary, people will be afraid.

Again kitchen protests ...

Of course, what else? It is this task that they are pursuing - to drive office hamsters under the shop. But at the same time, the information about what is the regime (thanks, in particular, the case of Navalny and Pussy Riot ) will reach more than more people. More and more often the question will sound - "Why do they do it?"

And here again, even greater repressions will be needed, or we will move on to the Brezhnev version, when the leader surrendered and l land on, the state was weak and eventually collapsed.

And how soon can we see it with your own eyes?

It's hard to say. Putin has no problem now. The security forces are loyal, he pays the state employees to the state employees (they would like more, but they will overdo it). The elites are also loyal. That is, Putin controls the situation. But this control requires, albeit slow, but constant twisting of nuts.