It is impossible to endlessly improve phones and tablets - competitors are catching up. What fundamentally new product will Apple bet on?

Apple is a hostage to its own image. She needs to constantly keep the world in suspense, to come up with something that has never happened before. If she ceases to be a pioneer, she will lose her zest, her right to exclusivity. Meanwhile, the iPhone has already reached the fifth generation, competitors are improving technology and are catching up with Apple in terms of characteristics. Apple is experiencing price pressure and is forced to reduce prices. But there is no longer a way to break away - you won’t be able to polish your phone endlessly. What's next?

Of course, the iPad immediately comes to mind. But I don’t think that the tablet will be able to take over the smartphone baton as triumphantly as Apple is used to. The iPhone, which appeared in 2007, already by the end of 2008 - beginning of 2009 accounted for almost a third of the company's revenues. The iPad fell slightly short of 20% in two years. And although it now holds 65% of the market, it is difficult to imagine any new breakthrough here. The iPad, in its essence, is perhaps still not as revolutionary a product as the Apple smartphone was in its time, and the competitive pressure here was immediately much stronger. No wonder the company’s margin on iPhone is 56%, and on iPad – 23%.

The point is that now it is almost impossible to keep all the technologies secret from competitors in an already created and sold product. If only because Apple’s suppliers, of which there are many, have access to its ideas to one degree or another. And at the same time - remember Samsung - they are sometimes its direct competitors.

So in the short term, the most important thing for the company, of course, is the iPhone, in the medium term the iPad, but it still needs some new product that can surprise the planet. Some signs suggest that he is already preparing.

We are talking primarily about R&D - research and development. They usually account for about 7% of Apple's expenses (considering the gigantic size of the company, this is a lot). But in the first quarter of 2012, this item suddenly increased by 22%. The growth is similar to that in 2009 - and then a year later the company surprised the world with the iPad.

What could we be talking about this time? Most likely, about iTV - the first innovative TV from Apple. Talk about it has been circulating in the market for a long time. From time to time, one or another Apple supplier announces a new order - after which experts begin to analyze for which device such components may be useful. This summer, Foxconn said it was preparing parts that experts identified as body parts for the future iTV. Analysts from JPMorgan devoted an entire study to the future Apple gadget and even outlined certain of its characteristics. They are talking about a TV with Wi-Fi and a Siri voice communication system, like an iPhone.

If the guess turns out to be correct, Apple's TV will, of course, have direct access to iTunes, and in general it will be easily and conveniently coordinated with other products of the company. True, for customers this ease has a downside - voluntary limitation of themselves to the products of one company. Whether Apple's charisma will be enough for this in a few years is a question. And in any case, the competition in the “new TV” market will immediately be serious. Let's say, the same Samsung has been working on displays for a long time, technologies are improving all the time, and although the company has so far acted as a high-quality imitator and performer, it will not be at all easy to outdo it and other iTV players.

Life after the iPhone: how Apple will surprise the planet next time