Asian countries are increasingly divided into “old” and “young”; the leader will be determined by demography, says the father of the “Singapore miracle”, Lee Kuan Yew, in his Forbes column

China's booming population is very different from India's expanding population. China now has 1.35 billion people and has had a one-child policy since 1979. China's fertility rate (the number of children an average woman bears during her childbearing years) is now 1.6 and falling rapidly. This spells trouble for the country in the future, since only at a birth rate of 2.1 does natural population replacement occur.

China's leading demographers, sociologists and economists - more than 20 in total - recently called on the government to end the one-child policy.

The ideological origins of this policy should be sought in the period of the country's development after the Cultural Revolution, when China lacked food and resources and people were afraid of a high birth rate. Unfortunately, it will now be difficult to reverse the population decline that has resulted from these policies. It is unlikely that Chinese women will achieve a fertility rate of 2.1. For example, educated women with high salaries do not want to burden themselves with two or more children. They get married late, when they are over 30, and put off having children because they want to enjoy life, especially travel abroad. Even worse, many don’t get married at all. According to some estimates, 10% of women in China remain unmarried. In Singapore there are 20% of them. But in every country - both developing and developed - the older the workforce, the lower the overall level of entrepreneurship and creativity.

India is in stark contrast to China. Its population is 1.21 billion people and its birth rate is 2.5. India's population is estimated to be 1.4 billion by 2026.

India has over 2,000 ethnic groups and over 400 vernaculars. Each state elects its own ministers, and the authorities in Delhi do not have full control over what happens in the states and cannot greatly influence it.

India has 22 officially recognized languages, but an estimated 41% of the population speaks Hindi and about 10% speaks English. A candidate taking a national examination to enter the civil service, for example, can use any of the recognized languages, only in some cases and for some tasks he needs English. According to the Constitution of India, the official languages of intrastate and interstate communication are Hindi and English. Yet any Prime Minister in Delhi, no matter what language he speaks, will be understood only by a limited segment of the country's population.

China has one written language, only the pronunciation differs. The leaders in Beijing can be listened to and understood by the entire nation.

I recently returned from a trip to Japan and Hong Kong. In Japan, the birth rate is 1.39, in North Korea - 1.23, in Hong Kong - 1.11, in Singapore - 1.20. At the same time, Japan, it seemed to me, is aging, and Hong Kong is cheerful and energetic. I can't help but think it's because 220,000 people travel from China to Hong Kong every day and many Hong Kong residents have a second home in mainland China.

Singapore welcomes immigrants from China, India and other countries in the region, adding dynamism to its economy and society. Hong Kong's population is growing due to immigrants - legal and illegal. Japan is a country of purebred Japanese. It is rejecting migrants, so its population is shrinking and aging - a trend that will be difficult to reverse because its birth rate is falling too quickly.

Will China or India become the leader in Asia?