Why is Turkey a war with Syria

The Turkish government appealed to the country's parliament to receive official permission to conduct military operations in Syria. The request states that the Syrian crisis threatens the national security of Turkey. On the eve of the Turkish Akchkala, the Syrian artillery shell exploded, 5 people were killed. In response to this, Türkiye opened fire on the territory of Syria, several Syrian troops were killed. Ankara assures that the shelling of exclusively military positions was fired.

PublicPost asked experts to predict the situation in the region, assessing the probability of a large -scale military conflict between countries.

Leonid Ivashov, President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems:

"The leadership of Turkey, the ruling elite could not withstand the course that she not so long ago tried to realize: embedding into the Islamic world as one of the leaders. A few years ago, between Turkey, Iran and Syria, the contours of allied relations based on the Kurdish, anti -American and anti -Israeli problems began. Then from the USA and, probably, the special services of the Israeli were undertaken, powerful an analges were undertaken. On this course, Erdogan and Gul could not stand it, they again entered the course of the US geopolitics and the transnational community.

Today, Obama, going to the polls, cannot offer anything as an indicator of his foreign policy success, so it is important for him to solve the problem with Syria, to report to the American voter that he has achieved a change in the regime. Those changes that occurred in Libya, in Egypt, in Tunisia, were disavowed by the anti -American performance and the murder of the ambassador to Benghazi . So the Turks, most likely, is the Obama administration today.

Most likely, the conflict between Turkey and Syria, initiated by the West, will develop. It is difficult to predict: for this you need to know the position of Russia and China, as they, together with Iran and other countries, will defend the principle of non -interference in the internal affairs of the sovereign state. If Russia perceives this seriously and will show the initiative, and not weave in the tail of Western accusations and proposals, then China will follow it, etc. The Shanghai organization of cooperation can form peacekeeping forces, an intermediary mission and work in Syria. Syrian leadership has already done such an appeal. This will be one of the options for the development of events. The West and East have already agreed on the Syrian bridgehead, but in this option there will be at least equality of forces.

For Turkey, the war with Syria is not its interest. But Turkey was broken, and today it works in the line of the United States strategy and the world oligarchy. Two flashing beacons are hung on the Turks to which the country should go: this is a reception to Europe and the promise that Türkiye will become the new ancestor of the Islamic caliphate. The tricks were hanged, although many analysts understand that the West will not revive Islamic Turkey and strengthen it. Western strategy - "share and reign." So the prospects here are not quite rosy. "

Alexander Golts, military analyst:

"What happened on the Turkish-Syrian border is the classic Casus Belli, a reason for the war. If Russian pro-government commentators were right, claiming that the treacherous NATO sharpens their teeth, claws and everything else to get the possibility of an invasion of Syria, then the alliance, of course, would have been used instantly. Meanwhile, the real events look completely different. Yesterday. Yesterday. Yesterday. Yesterday. Yesterday. Yesterday. The North Atlantic Council at the level of the ambassadors did not come to any decisions.

Ankara in the war with Syria is not interested. In order to fight, win and occupy, completely different forces and means are needed than those that Türkiye and the North Atlantic Alliance itself have today. ”

Georgy Mirsky, chief researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences:

“I don’t think that a separate Turkish-Syrian war would be possible. Most likely, it will be part of a common planned multi-stage operation that the Arab League, Turkey and some Western countries will finally overthrow the overthrow of the Bashar Assad regime. We, as a rule, do not write about possible motives of the Turks. And here we need to understand one thing: there were no centuries in the region in this region The Arab countries with the Arab peoples were subordinated to the Turkish Ottoman Empire, next to which there was another powerful empire - Persian, subsequently, it was called the ancient heavyweight for many centuries It was a few decades ago: such as Gamal Abdel Nassad, Hasir Arafat for a long time, the current leaders of all these countries - Pigmes compared to them. Although Iran is a Shiite country, and the Arab countries that I am talking about, Sunni, I believe that Ahmadinejad managed to accomplish a feat-to overcome, firstly, the traditional hostility of the Persians and Arabs, and secondly-the traditional hostility of the Sunnis and Shiites. Therefore, Iran was a heavyweight, a regional hegemon.

And at that moment another beast appeared - the gray Turkish wolf. For a long time it was assumed that Türkiye is part of Europe, no one thought about it as an Asian country, but no, they returned again. And now we have to see the clash of two heavyweights - Iran and Turkey - in the struggle for hegemony in the region, in the struggle for the soul of the Arab world. But this does not mean that the war is about to begin, everything will be a little different.

I think that after some time the Turks will really begin to make sorties to the northern regions of Syria, the situation will begin to aggravate, and in the end the Turks, as well as Qatar and Saudi Arabia, decide to create a security zone under the pretext that it is necessary to give asylum to the civilian population. In fact, the army of the rebels of a free Syrian army will begin to consolidate and strengthen there. For her, this will be the territorial bridgehead that has not yet been. Bashar Assad, having seen this, will bring down his tanks and aviation just on these security zones, which in turn will give the rebels to turn to the West with a request to introduce no -flying zones according to the Libyan model. There will never be any landing of the Western troops there, but it is quite possible that the combination of the actions of the Free Syrian Army, the Turkish army, volunteers, which Saudi Arabia will provide, plus NATO aircraft, will lead to the Assada regime staggering. Then the hour of Iran will come to enter the war. Iran would never allow Bashar al-Assad, the head of the only partner country of Iran, to be dropped. Iranian troops will come in, and then different options are possible: Hizbollah, which can intervene on the side of Iran, Egypt is not clear how it will react to this ... One way or another, all this is bad, and Bashar Assad must understand this. He put the wrong horse. It will end badly. "