Translated material
War of nerves
Türkiye is trying to reason Assad
On October 10, Turkish fighters forced the Syrian passenger airbus A320, which followed the Moscow -Damascus route. Then, within five hours, the Turks, they say, withdrew the Russian “military cargo” intended for Syria from the airbus. Ankara accused Moscow of “smuggling weapons” in Damascus. Another plot developed in parallel: literally the day before the interception of the liner, Vladimir Putin and the Turkish Prime Minister Rajep Erdogan agreed to postpone the working visit of the Kremlin owner to Ankara, outlined on October 14–15. The key topic of the meeting was to be Syria: Erdogan was waiting from Putin to answer the question "What to do with Bashar Assad?" - After all, Ankara is a step away from the war with the ally and the protege of Moscow. How Türkiye behaves after a scandal with an airplane and a sharp cooling of relations with Russia - the New Times sorted out 
* * On October 12, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that there was equipment for radar on the plane. . Full -fledged contracts for such a tiny time are not executed, so it was about “gray supplies”, and possibly even without the knowledge of the Kremlin. However, the Turks will most likely not give detailed information about the cargo. Information about him, as well as about the flight of the liner, as the sources of The New Times in Ankara assure, the Turkish special services received ahead of time. “It has already happened: when Odjalan (the leader of the Kurdish Workers' Party (KRP). - The NEW Times) wanted to hide from the Turkish special services in Kenya, they were waiting for him already on board the aircraft - the information came from the CIA,” the diplomatic source in Ankara says on the terms of anonymity. Of course, he knew in advance about the interception of the Syrian liner and Prime Minister Erdogan. Among the diplomats in Ankara, there was an opinion that, most likely, Erdogan personally informed Putin in a telephone conversation on October 9 of the prepaid operation and they decided that it was better to postpone the planned meeting until more favorable diplomatic weather. It is no coincidence that the 10th at the peak of the scandal and mutual diplomatic reproaches of Ankara and Moscow in the Kremlin suddenly called the new date of Putin’s visit to Turkey-December 3.
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Radzep Erdogan (left) agrees with Vladimir Putin on many issues, except for one - who shot Syria? The scandal with the Syrian Airbus A320 happened at the moment when the situation on the Syrian-Turkish border is heated to the limit. From Syria, Turkish territory has been fired at six times over the past ten days. Moreover, in the latter case, as the Ankara assures, "the artillery of the regular army was occupied absolutely fire." It is clear that this is the price that Ankara pays for the support of the Syrian opposition: on the Turkish territory there are bases of the Free Army of Syria (CAS), consisting mainly of the Sunnis, and its headquarters under the command of General Riyad Assad. Four Turkish policemen and five civilians and five civilians died from the shallow shells in the county of Akchakala (Province of Chanlyurf. Observers are wondering: who has the first one - Erdogan or Assad - will not stand the nerves.
On October 9, the head of the Turkish General Staff, General Nenzet, arrived in the districts border with Syria. “Another such salvo - and let Damascus blames himself,” he said. The Turkish parliament has already given the Army Cart Blanche to the fighting abroad. Türkiye and the support of NATO leadership, a member of which is a member. In turn, Bashar Assad, according to sources in Ankara, ordered his generals not to conduct fights with the opposition near the border with Turkey. “In fact, it is so far to be completely unclear who is firing at Turkish territory,” says Turkish analyst Karim Latif. - This can do the opposition detachments that are not controlled by the leadership of SAS - in order to involve Turkey in the war and speed up the end of the Assad regime; And there may also be Syrian Kurds - another “headache” of Ankara. ” However, the professor-political scientist from Istanbul University Sadraddin Kylyda believes that the official Damascus is quite capable of deliberately provoking the Turks: “Having drawn Turkey into Syrian events, Assad will tell the world: look, we said that we were fighting an external threat-here is the proof.”
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Among the diplomats in Ankara there is an opinion that, most likely, the Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan in a telephone conversation on October 9 personally informed Putin about the preparatory interception of the Syrian liner and they decided to postpone the planned meeting until more favorable political weather
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The wounded Syrian refugee (in the center) just crossed the Border of Orones Old “Stenosis” by Bashar Assad’s border boat with Turkey and considers him a traitor. He once called the Syrian policy in relation to Turkey "a splinter that turns into an abscess over the years." “The crisis of bilateral relations has risen long before Assad’s regime began to massively kill the Syrian Sunnis, which Turkey, disputing with Saudi Arabia Palm of the championship in the Sunni world, cannot allow,” says The New Times Sadraddin Kylydzh. “Also, the Assad-Ototets supported with money, weapons, and the diplomacy of the separatists from the Kurdish Workers' Party-Abdullah Ojalan lived in Damascus at one time.”
After the Assada-Sina came to power in Damascus in 2000, the relationship was noticeably warmed up: he and Erdogan began to be friends with families, and rested together in Antalya twice. When mass protests began in Syria in Syria, Erdogan called Assad: “Bashar, don’t shoot the people, otherwise I will not help you.” The head of the Turkish Foreign Affairs Ahmed Davutoglu flew to Damascus for almost a dozen times, convincing Assad to start a dialogue with the opposition. “Assad made promises: to accept Galune
* Burkhan Galyun, the leader of the opposition National Council of Syria based in Ankara. , to create a transition government, etc., but not one of them has fulfilled, ”says Sadraddin Kylydzh. - After that, Ankara interrupted all relations with Assad. He, in turn, recalled his father’s “legacy” - began to support the RPK with the weapon and money. ”
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Now the question is who has the first one to stand the nerves - Erdogan or Assad
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Residents of Akchakale (Turkey) mourn the fellow countrymen who died as a result of the artillery at the part of Syria, the Russian map “Assad regime is supported not only by Russia, but also by China and Iran. But if Beijing and Tehran provide Damascus only by political and military support, then Russia - political, military, and financial, - thought Turkish analyst Karim Latif. “Erdogan realized: Putin has the key to solving the Syrian problem.”
During the July working visit to Moscow, Radzep Tayyip Erdogan, as he could, made curtsies to the Russian side. Türkiye, he assured Vladimir Putin, would abandon the idea of joining the European Union if Russia agrees to accept it in the Shanghai organization of cooperation (SCO). In addition, they finally agreed that Russia will build the first nuclear power plant in Akkui (Turkey) (the contract price is $ 20 billion), and under special conditions: Russia will own a control package of shares of a Turkish company that will manage the station. Erdogan gave oral consent to Putin to participate in Russia in the construction of the Samsun -Jahan oil pipeline, according to which Azerbaijani oil will pump through the territory of Turkey to Europe. Finally, at the beginning of June, Erdogan personally approved the Sberbank of the Russian Federation of the Turkish bank-Denizbank-for $ 3.5 billion. In exchange for all this, Erdogan wanted to get a single signal from Moscow: its support for Bashar al-Assa regime is not eternal, politics adjustments are possible. When they reached Syria, he asked Putin: “How would Russia relate to the formation of a transition government in Damascus? And without Bashar Assad. " Putin answered in the spirit that we would not object to such a turn of events, but who could lead the transitional office? Erdogan had the answer ready: Faroca al-Sharaa, Syria Vice President, Sunny, he is not lined with crimes against the people, the Syrian opposition does not mind his candidacy. In Moscow, as it turned out, this figure also did not cause idiosyncrazia. “But then you need to come up with some kind of exit for Assad,” Erdogan insisted. Putin promised to think.
Three armored brigades of the Turkish army have already been deployed on the border with Syria, the price of thoughts has passed. The idea with the transition government remained on paper - Moscow is still “thinking”. “Perhaps Putin consciously takes time, but there is a tremendous risk in this,” a high -ranking Turkish diplomat remarked in a conversation with The New Times on the basis of anonymity. - If the Syrians continue provocations on the border, Erdogan will not wait until Putin arrives in Turkey with his plan for Syria: Turkish troops, and specifically three elite armored brigades, will cross the Syrian border at the end of October. They do not need a march-brush to Damascus: for example, a 50-kilometer security zone will be created-under the pretext of protecting the state border and camps of Syrian refugees, as well as the fight against Kurdish separatism. ”
The creation of a buffer zone, emphasizes the source of the magazine, will mean not only the occupation, but also the actual disintegration of Syria. And Russia, taking into account its own South Ossetian experience, will have nothing to object to it-neither in the UN nor anywhere else.