Andrey Levkin: Ukraine will not rage

Andrey Levkin Illustration: Sergey Elkin

On Sunday in Ukraine - the next elections, parliamentary. They will be extremely predictable and even almost without passions - here is not visible from the side where passions can come from. The Party of Regions will receive its 226 seats in the Rada, and that’s it. Well, or will not get it. But hardly.

In Ukraine, the regime of "sociological silence" is introduced quite early. Two weeks before the election, all surveys become closed. And this story ended on the fact that the Party of Regions receives most of all, the "Fatherland" (that is, the united opposition) and the blow (this is the abbreviation, it also somehow deciphered, I don’t remember) Vitaly Klitschko beat in second place. "Freedom" retains the chances of falling into the Rada . Here it would be possible to give a summary for all sociologists, only at least the numbers have vary, but all the regions came off from the second place at least 7%.

The numbers for an example ( the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, together with the Kiev International Institute of Sociology): Party of Regions (23%), Blow and Fatherland (16% and 15%, respectively), 10% at the Communist Party and, for the first time during the surveys of this company, “Liberty” minimally takes place in Rada. In other cases, the blow and "Fatherland" change places, "freedom" is either closer, then further from passing (there is a barrier there is 5%). " Ukraine - Forward!" There is no chance, 2% or a little more. "Our Ukraine" Yushchenko is a half percent.

The second half of the deputies

But this is not all. Because the elections will now pass through the mixed system. 225 - according to party lists, 225 - in single -mandate districts. Well, this part is quite in the fog, since no one publishes their ratings is boring. Unless in some iconic districts (mainly Kyiv), but there is no general picture. But common sense hints that pro -government has more chances there. Not even that admin resource, but simply they are better organized. The opposition has a disaster with this.

But, of course, there are experts, the same “deminitians” (they are used here because they are clearly not pro-government and not too pro-optical), they gathered a sort of focus group from the leadership of eight Ukrainian social services. Conclusion: in most cases, permanent candidates will win among majoritarianists, or most of the majority workers will then become allies of the regions.

There, everyone gave mainly quality assessments - the type of above. But the chief "UKRANIAN SOCIOLOGY SERVICE" A. Vishnyak even brought a layout in the parties: "In the districts from PR from 100 to 130, from the opposition from 30 to 35, from the blow to 15, from freedom to 10, from the Communist Party to 3, from small parties - 15, self -nominees - from 40 to 55 ".

What will be in total

Well, then political scientists have already begun to draw general conclusions. So, in . Pesenko, A. Chernenko and M. Pogrebinsky at a press conference came to the conclusion that after the election the Party of Regions could not form a constitutional majority. That is, this is a conclusion in a good way, because the constitutional majority is already too much.

According to Fesenko, the regions in total will receive from 180 to 200 seats. He even clarified that 75 mandates - on party lists and about 115-120 - in majority districts. But for PR this does not matter, they will be able to form the majority at the expense of majority-nominations. But the constitutional majority will not be able to do this. Other experts - in particular, M. Pogrebinsky - believe that the relative majority of the regions will be able to form only at the expense of their deputies.

That is, this can be considered consensus: yes, it wins, even can do the majority, but not constitutional. This is, as it were, even such a label for the European Union - with such a scatter, the elections can be considered honest. Yes, by the way, with such preliminary assessments, mass indignations regarding the results are impossible.

In this case, they quite agree in the pr, whose leader of the faction A. Efremov said at a briefing a couple of days ago that “ we expect to get a third according to the lists and at least, I think we will receive our supporters in parliament of about 140 people in majority districts. I called the minimum number. There may be more .” At the same time, " we are not going to make a constitutional majority. It is impossible to do it with one political force, but to compete and ask for support voters to form a majority - we are doing this ."

"Fatherland"

With the "Fatherland", that is, with the united opposition, there was some kind of story that it is difficult to explain. If a year ago or even at the beginning of 2012 they competed with PR, then they are already fighting the elections with Klitschko. A purely novelty Klitschko cannot explain the situation. He was not so new, he was elected to the City Duma in Kyiv.

In this situation in the "Fatherland" they are engaged in some kind of platonic policy. A. Yatsenyuk was the main one there, and he mainly such ideas that every time the question arises of who, the property is, is he talking? He recently said that in the next parliament the democratic majority will be formed and added that " the United opposition has a clear plan of changes, which provides for the adoption of 80 bills with a new parliament ." And in this regard, he proposed to sign a coalition agreement in advance. But a little later, he already announced that the opposition would in no case take part in the formation of the government - " if he wins the parliamentary elections ." Well, this is because all the same in the country it all depends on the president, so let him answer, then to lose the presidential election.

As a result, they signed an agreement only with “freedom”, and Klitschko said that all democrats would unite only in the Rada, not earlier. Yes, the "Fatherland" agreed with him, nevertheless, some majority workers, but even there it was not without a scandal - "Fatherland" did not withdraw candidates in the districts, in which - on the sociology of the blow - their people had the best positions.

But there is still such a problem: this is exactly what Batkivshchina, but the United opposition - several parties suspended their activities and brought their leaders into it. The same Yatsenyuk ("Front of Changes"), A. Gritsenko ("Civil position"). Moreover, if Gritsenko had little chance of passing a list, then the “front of changes” had no problems with this, he gained stably on the polls of the beginning of the year 7-8%.

So before the elections, A. Yatsenyuk’s position is no fundamental growth of the “Fatherland” rating after the creation of the combined opposition, moreover, it loses its position in comparison with the blow. The project did not work. And it is very likely that Klitschko will fully crush all the prospects of the “front of the changes” and “civil position” - how do they restore separately after such a joint result? And this happened precisely under the leadership of Yatsenyuk. There is some feeling that as a leader he is no longer perceived there. But here it is clear: this is not his format, to perform Tymoshenka. As for her, she seemed to disappear somewhere before the elections. In the sense that the united opposition is not particularly connected. This is on indirect signs - now she continues problems with the hospital and new criminal cases, but no one, even her supporters, connects all this with the elections.

HIT

Everything is visible here by numbers. In the sense - second or third place, but nothing else to see. Because Klitschko did not make anything sane, not counting the statements that he opposes the authorities and that everything should be Chotko. When he once decided to make a program statement, it turned out very ambivalently. In an interview with Kommersant-Ukraine, he promised that there would be no corruption in his parliamentary faction. He, of course, was asked - how would he fight with her and what does it mean by corruption? The answer was strategic, but contradictory: " only by authority, moral qualities. We will initiate the creation of an anti -corruption agency ." Journalists thought: so the moral qualities of deputies or an agency - and what, should it be created only for the sake of corruption in the Rada?

Klitschko explained that he wants a certain punishing body for everyone who can be reckoned with the authorities: “ We intend to introduce a law that allows voters to recall officials, judges, deputies, if they do not perform their functions, or act in their interests, or turn into“ carcasses ”(“ tushks ”are called deputies who fled to another faction, usually for money or other bonuses). There is still what is interesting: Klitschko, it seems, does not yet know about the separation of the authorities. Perhaps this is some kind of personal feeling- power for him, this is one big and the whole than you need to take possession.

Z ATO with tactics in a blow normal, there is the sane head of the headquarters V. Kovalchuk. Moreover, recently he has been moving from tactics to strategy. So, saying that opposition parties will not be able to create a majority in the new Rada, he also made a couple of statements that can be considered the basis of the new strategy of impact. Firstly, “ why“ Fatherland ”allows themselves to talk with a blow from the position of an older brother? We entered into negotiations when we had a rating 2.5 times less. But, gentlemen, partners, the situation has changed. We have comparable ratings for today. Moreover, they are with you, and we are growing .” That is, everything has changed, the "Fatherland" is no longer the flagship of the opposition.

Secondly, Kovalchuk assures that the blow in the coming years will become the main alternative to the Party of Regions and added that they will not create a majority with PR and KPU. They will or will not be - then we will see, but it is characteristic that the "Fatherland" is not mentioned here at all (if we keep in mind the confusion in a good sense).

Yes, another nuance. In truth, everything that is now has a blow is only a rating. They go to national elections for the first time, and in such cases the rating does not at all hint at the percentage that they can get. They just have no voter yet. Say, the rating could give fans of Klitschko boxers, but these fans would never occur to me to vote. And the rating was asked - answered.

Rest

The rest include the Communist Party, the "freedom" of Tyagnibok, "Ukraine - forward!" N. Korolevskaya, well, "Our Ukraine" is understandable to whom. The Communists feel great. If before the campaign they had 4-5%ratings, now about 10%. The only thing that can worry them is how many places will have PR and, accordingly, whether she will be needed for the majority. Tyagnibok has some chances, Korolovskaya has almost no, although it was she that the same new political force, which, supposedly, was waiting for the Ukrainian people. In general, it is not clear with her. In the summer, she went to the passing barrier - really, according to the sane social services - but for some reason the collapse began for the elections. The strangest thing that he coincided with the advent of a football player (already former) Andrei Shevchenko in her list, but he certainly didn’t rise - he rarely performed in public, and looked quite reasonably. Maybe there they screwed a campaign from Russia at the last moment, this does not understand. Well, yes, it is unlikely to be happy to upgrade more than half. Unless a third.

Of course, there is also another topic - that all this will mean and mean. But more on this after the appearance of the results, about Monday.

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