Ukraine is slightly Polova

Elections have been held in Ukraine, there are no results yet, but there is a package of exit Pols that we do not expect. The Party of Regions is the leader, the "Fatherland" is behind 5-8%. But the blow from the "Batkivshchina" (which by the ratings bypassed) fell by 9-10%, moreover, the very special "freedom" suddenly jumped from 4.8 to 12%.

By numbers. According to the National Eccith of the Center for Razumkov and KMIS on party lists as follows: Party of Regions (28.1%), "Fatherland" (24.7%), hit (15.1%), "Freedom" (12.3%), Communist Party (11.8%). Research & Branding has a slightly different procedure for places and percent: Party of regions (31.6%), "Fatherland" (23.7%), blow (13.2%), Communist Party (13%), "Freedom" (11%). Other ec-sex gives the results that fall between these two.

Here, of course, the question is: how much will exits correspond to the results? Well, the authorities were ready to admit them in advance. At least on the eve of the head of the A. Efremov faction, he said that " the authorities did everything necessary so that people have no doubt about the holding of honest elections ." And he added that the differences between the ecnith floor data and the real elections can be 3%, " it was as much as possible in some European countries 6-5% ."

He - as for the expectations of the authorities - gave an approximate calculation: " We expect to get a third on the lists and at least, I think we will receive our supporters in parliament of about 140 people in majority districts. I called the minimum number. There may be more ." So they can become a lesser problem than 140 - the number of victorious majority workers, and a third on party lists is approximately going out.

In principle, they can be satisfied: after all, this is the first case in the history of the Ukrainian elections, when the party that was in power wins in the elections. It is clear that now we have to wait for the results, including majoritors, and count them longer, because there are more on each site. The CEC promises "final preliminary" results by the evening of October 31. However, there is an existit-floor, according to TNS and Socis in the majority districts, something like this: the Party of Regions-28%; Self -nominates - 19%, "Fatherland" - 18%; "Hit" - 10%; KPU - 9%; In "Freedom" - 6%.

It was about power. However, the Communist Party can also be leaning here. They were thoughtful before the elections. So, P. Simonenko did not answer the question of the Inter TV channel about whether the KPU will cooperate with the Party of Regions. Everything that he said was in the phrase " we will act as an independent political force, as an independent faction ." It is not in the case that the Communists suddenly decide to join the "Fatherland" or to Tyagnibok. If the regions independently gain 226 seats, then the Communist Party, although it got a good result, may be unclaimed. What to do in this case - they do not yet understand. Well, yes, while Simonenko simply does not know whether the regions will need if the majority can form it. But, of course, it will come in handy if the constitutional majority is needed. However, this is considered after the official results.

The other side

Judging by the reaction of A. Yatsenyuk to the data of the ec weaps, he clearly assumed the worst. Now he is satisfied and already says that the opposition can nominate a single presidential candidate. It seems to mean himself. But, it seems, he really got out: Klitschko had already lost to the elections under his leadership, and here - an unexpected increase and gap from him 10%. Well, it turns out that Yatsenyuk did not fail. Which, in fact, is not quite so-if we take the last ratings of parties that entered the united opposition, then it was supposed to get ahead of the regions of percent by 5-10 percent. And now they are happy that they went around Klitschko.

Klitschko behaved proudly before the elections, and the result is approximately equal to his ratings - and this is a pretty decent result for the party, which went to the general elections for the first time. You can probably estimate this way: the same “Fatherland” (and included in her list of “civil position” and “front of changes”) had a certain latent electorate, which somehow mobilized. And Klitschko of the electorate did not yet have what to mobilize here. In the end, now it is more difficult for him. At a minimum, he will have to change the tone of his statements, which he has already begun, saying that he was confident in the parliamentary association with the "Fatherland" and "Freedom". But he added (a little later) that “ there are great fears ” about “freedom” because of their radicalism.

The result of "Freedom", which, according to the ratings for the elections, barely got to 5%, is difficult to explain. Well, perhaps, at the last moment, the right-national electorate realized that there was no one to represent its interests, "our Ukraine" did not count, so they voted for Tyagnibok. Actually, there are Westerners in the world? Here, these are their voices and, apparently, not only the Westerners of the territorial ones, but also in spirit. Here, of course, there will be a new intrigue - Klitschko wanted to prove to the "Fatherland" that he is the coolest oppositionist, and now also Tyagnibok nearby. In whose prospects he did not believe a day ago. Undoubtedly, there will be a battle under the cover of general assurances in the general Ukrainian democratic case.

As a result, this was not played at all: all the time they said that the voter was waiting for new politicians, but they did not appear. Unless Klitschko to some extent new, but Tyagnibok was already in the Rada. The result of N. Korolevskaya is about 2%. That is, at least new people did not appear in this part of politics.

The view is a little on the side

But here is another story: if new people have not come from the outside, then they can appear from the inside. If the characters are not visible that could arrange themselves in the version of the new political force (as the royal succeeded), then something will happen inside the main batch, since it grows in influence. But only it is very systemic. Yes, the regional A. Efremov, the head of the faction - probably can bloom, but he is a systemic person. S. Tigipko? And he dives into politics, then emerges. Before the elections, he even gave two interviews (one of them “Lente.ru”), whose main message was to demonstrate complete loyalty to the party and the absence of political ambitions. So, most likely, for him the main thing is business, which is why he dives, leads.

But why should only be thought about politicians when there are, say, property issues? It’s more interesting, for example, exactly on the day of the election "Ukrainian Pravda" published this: " The oligarchs took up arms for the family." Conclusion: immediately after the elections in the Party of Regions, a split for economic motives will begin.

The article, especially on election day, is curious. First of all, it is reported that the elections are not much important. Because a) “ The Verkhovna Rada how was the decision of the decisions of the authorities of V. Yanukovych, they will not be in the nearest time I” and b) the outcome of the elections was predetermined: “ It can be said with a probability of 95% that the results of the elections are already known, even those people whose candidates are consistent will be held .”

Now to the matter: “ The main intrigue, according to the tradition of the current government, is not taken out. It is quietly“ cooked ”in a narrow circle of devoted. It can be expressed in one question:“ Who will rule the country after the elections, family or oligarchs? ”“ It is further reported that after the past elections everything was more or less balanced: “Rinat Akhmetov received at the disposal of electric power and coal, Andrey Klyuyev, Andrey Klyuv. -The construction of solar power plants and the regulation of the main issues in industry, Boris Kolesnikov-Euro 2012 and transport, Dmitry Firtash-the oil and gas sphere.

And here is the initial reason for the changes: “ But soon the authorities began to turn into a crazy King Kong. The main vertical, called the“ family ”, began to intensify . The following are some information that the publication considers evidence of its point of view. In general, the article has an introductory character, perhaps there is probably no question of the influence on someone here. The conclusion that is proposed to the reader is that the head of the NBU S. Arbuzov really controls the entire “family” scheme.

Next, the intrigue is presented. It is claimed that it is S. Abruzov that can become the prime minister: “ He is a key person in the vertical of“ family ”power. He is subordinated to the tax, customs, the Ministry of Finance and sometimes the Ministry of Internal Affairs. He makes important decisions on behalf of A. Yanukovych. Because he is the system of the system, no matter how it sounds .” In this regard, the UPs for good even reacted to N. Azarov constantly criticized: " Azarov, of course, is not perfect. But he is an impeccable prime minister in the current conditions of multi-clanity ." Nevertheless, it is argued that " the change of head of government will most likely happen." As an additional justification, the words of A. Efremov are given, who " stated that the Cabinet of Ministers is waiting for the change ."

The final conclusion: “ It means it is possible that in the near future the watermelon will nevertheless officially become“ the first after God. ”And what after that? New accomplishments, a new redistribution in favor of the“ family ”. And, as the interlocutors hint at us, first of all it will be the redistribution of agricultural land.”

Actually, the title is not entirely clear: who, in fact, who has "ganged up" to here? It is also clear that the development of events will not depend on the point of view of "Ukrainian truth". And, there is no even understanding which direction they would like to play for? Judging by the heading - they are for the "family". Judging by the text - on the contrary. However, the significance of this hypothesis should not be exaggerated. Such a publication on the eve of the elections (and UE is the same flagship of the opposition, it was even more oppressed by the opposition itself) could mean a psychotherapeutic event: we seemed to lose the elections, but they will start there now ...