Translated material
With an open finale
To someone, these preparations tickle the nerves, and they inspire me with a feeling of annoyance and turn into a fatalist. The feeling as if a ferocious dragon arrives once a year and collects a tribute, and there is no lanzelot that would defeat the impudent lizard. The heroine of the beloved fairy tale of American children Dorothy Gailles Mighty Tornado tolerates with a house and a dog from Kansas to the magic country of Lake. But in real life, the furious nature is merciless to the girls, and to the dogs, and to their houses.
In front of the formidable elements, election passions turn pale. Both candidates canceled the scheduled meetings with voters - namely those states where they need to be most needed now will already become a distress area today. Sandy confused the cards to political technologists, canceled the early vote - God the news, which of the candidates will not read the votes.
Barack Obama fate sends the last test. It is exactly how he will prove himself now that will determine the result of the election. His predecessor could not fully justify the Americans for the mistakes of his subordinates in the days of the New Orleans flood. But Bush Jr. did not need to be re-elected. Obama must mobilize his best human qualities so that the country sees in him a leader who rightfully takes his post. Now it’s not up to the exchange of pins with an opponent. The moment of truth comes.
The elements will settle down to the Day of Voting, but the injured areas will have wounds for a long time. And just bad weather can play a bad joke in the elections with the president. Both candidates hope for a high turnout, but the pattern has long been known: if the street is rain on the street, many Democrats remain at home, and the Republicans still come. It turns out that the democrats are more lazy and capricious? No, just most of them live in large cities, use public transport, and they do not smile at the bus stop or in line to the polling station.
A recent IPSOS agency survey confirms this phenomenon. 28 percent of voters going to vote for Obama said they could refuse to participate in the elections due to bad weather. Among the supporters of Romni there were 19 percent of these. But among the undefined, both candidates are desperately fighting for the votes, as many as 35 percent will not come to the sites.
A few years ago, a group of scientists analyzed the data on the turnout and compared it with observations of meteorologists in more than half a century. And then, on the basis of the correlation received, it was hypothetical scenarios. The result was amazing. If, for example, in 2000, it was not raining in Florida on the election day, but the weather was dry, the president would not be George Bush, but El Gore. If in 1960 in the key states the election day was, on the contrary, rainy, it would not win John Kennedy, but Richard Nixon.
On average, according to the authors of the study, each inch of precipitation in excess of the norm adds 2.5 percent of the vote to the Republican candidate.
There are even more interesting patterns that are not amenable to rational explanation. For example, if a local football team won at least a week before the election, its fans will give the current president an additional 1.61 percent of the vote.
Be political technologists at least seven spans in the forehead, and they are not able to foresee all accidents. Therefore, American elections are always a drama with an open finale.