Experts of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Higher School diagnosed the Russian economy, giving an alarming forecast and the Council

The Institute of National Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences published a quarterly macroeconomic forecast, where he outlined his view on the reasons for the slowdown of economic activity in Russia. According to experts, "what is happening in the economy can already be regarded as a crisis: a crisis of growth mechanisms and a crisis of economic management mechanisms." The main reason for the crisis, in addition to reducing external demand, they see the tightening of credit, money and budget policy.

The diagnosis follows the decision: an increase in the resource base of commercial banks in order to maintain the current overheating of lending to the population and provide the company's loan. The second growth mechanism is the increase in state investment ("companies with state property and partial state property provide up to 40% of warpets in the country").

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In fact, the RAS Inp believes that the macroeconomic thesis about the priority of price stability over rapid economic growth is “erroneous” is summarized by Kommersant . The authors of the forecast believe that today is not the time of "new monetary experiments."

Waiting for an increase in oil prices to $ 122 per barrel in 2015, Inp RAS predicts a slowdown in economic growth of up to 2.2% in 2015, with stable inflation at 6%. In other words, academicians do not foresee any changes either in the structure of the economy or as a business and investment climate, expecting a reduction in the accumulation of fixed capital, the stable labor of labor productivity and the lack of a flow of direct investment. That is how the "crisis of economic management mechanisms" looks like in their view.

Experts predict Russia by a slowdown in GDP almost three times

Experts from the Higher School of Higher Professional Education are in solidarity with scientists. Even while maintaining the slow growth of the global economy and high oil prices, economists of the Center give Russia no more than 1.3% of GDP growth in 2015. The experts recipe are similar: the redistribution of state funds in favor of the infrastructure and the rejection of the deficiency budget.

The quarterly growth rates of GDP have slowed down from the middle of last year, and the basic types of economic activity used to assess the dynamics of GDP have been stagnated since the beginning of 2012, experts of the Development Center in the study "Our Economic Forecast: Double?" It is given by RBC Daily . There is no optimism in industry: it grows only due to the extraction of raw materials and relatively simple products based on it.

As a result, even in the absence of global shocks and maintaining oil prices at 110 dollars per barrel, GDP growth rates will gradually slow down, experts calculated. The economy will decrease from 3.3% in 2012 to 1.3% in 2015, and the real wage growth - from 4.2% in 2012 to 2.4% in 2015 and 1.8% in 2020.

Official estimates are higher: the Ministry of Economic Development expect an increase in the economy by 3.5% this year and the gradual acceleration of growth rates to 4.5% in 2015.

The Higher School of Enterprise see four ways to speed up economic growth in Russia, which in total could give an average of 0.7 percentage points. annually. Thus, the improvement of the institutional environment and the increase in Russia in the annual rating of global competitiveness by 1 point would accelerate the growth rate of GDP by at least 0.31 pp.

The second measure is the rejection of the balanced budget by 2015 and the maintenance of the deficit at the level of 1.5% of GDP until 2020 (this will give an additional 0.16 percentage of GDP growth). The country that develops is needed, so such a deficit is completely normal, they say.

The experts of the Higher School of Enterprise in this way propose to send to the infrastructure. So, the investment of 1% of GDP in the construction of roads would give a double winning: firstly, the growth of state investment, and secondly, a decrease in costs and improving the image of the country's economy. It is also necessary to reduce financing for the purchase of weapons by 1% of GDP and send these funds to investment in the infrastructure. These two measures should give an acceleration of GDP by 0.16 and 0.13 percentage points. respectively.