Moor on the voivodship

In essence, there are only two options for explanations of the almost complete loss of the United States of any control over the situation in the Middle East with the environs, as well as the possibilities of influencing events in the region, except, of course, missile shelling and intrusions. And one of them has long been amused by conspiracy therapists, as it concerns their beloved, used to the left and right of the “Islamic factor”. Yes, I’m talking about the version that “this is all a conspiracy” and “Barack Hussein Obama is a secret Muslim, darming the road to the caliphate.” The most interesting thing is that he really can be a Muslim, but this has nothing to do with what is happening in the region. The biggest problem for the United States is another - Obama and his entire team are absolute profane. Moreover, by profanes of the worst type - acting within the framework of “ideology”, allowing themselves to periodically make “exceptions” from their own rules.

The simplest explanation of the situation in the Middle East and a number of neighboring countries of North Africa, which had developed by the end of 2012, is that Barack Obama did not come to power in order to deal with this issue. To do this, he had Hillary Clinton, a whole team of liberal advisers of various stripes and the royal family of Sauds, to whom he periodically went to bow for advice, sometimes receiving “recommendations”.

There are many confirmations of this explanation - in the United States in almost all areas that Mr. Chenge affected the same thing as in the Middle Eastern direction. Reburating the old phrase of Chernomyrdin - "they wanted the best, but it turned out much worse." But the White administration does not bother with this, since, in fact, its key interests lie on a different plane - maintaining the power to another cadence. In addition, no one stipulated 4 years ago, what kind of “Cheng” will happen with Obama’s arrival, and, compared to Bush’s policy, radical changes really occurred.

Bush has never been a political genius in any area, but he acted within the framework of certain opportunities, to put it mildly, choosing not always the best options for American politics. But they were meaningful. Obama’s actions go beyond the limits of all logical frames, leaving no opportunities to explain them from the point of view of any benefit to the United States as a whole power or for certain groups of interests within the country.

That is, evaluating the activities of US President Barack Obama, Hanlon’s razor should be applied: "Never explain with an evil intent that which can be completely stupid." There is no need for conspiracyology, it looks great in Dan Brown’s novels, but practically unsuitable in life - one narcissistic and nearby person with ambitions can do much more harm than three dozens of evil shadow geniuses.

Remember, there is such a Russophobic joke about a man with three balls in a closed empty room? So the “Middle Eastern ball” in the case of Obama did not break, but it was lost, or rather was given to someone who was not yet in this room. All the horror from the point of view of the Americans is that the strategic region, with oil and gas reserves, the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean coast was not “repelled” by Russia, or China. Due to stupid, if not absurd actions, he fell nowhere, where players who had not previously claimed control in general - Islamist groups and Iranian ayatols are now selecting.

From the moment, the events later called the Arab spring began in Tunisia in December 2010, the American leadership should still sit down, analyze the situation and its prospects and develop - with the help of experts and experts - a certain unified strategy of politics in the region. But this did not happen - the “spring” went, she was given way to her and, as a new political model of US behavior, nothing viable was born in this very new Middle East. Because no one has comprehended what is happening even from the point of view proposed by a children's joke about a sparrow in winter and cow cake. Binar logic is beautiful and has a wide scope, but completely unsuitable in the world of geopolitics - therefore it was extremely stupid, based on the fact that "the tyrant now in power, the local population calls it so and went out into the streets" draw conclusions that those who took to the streets - they were for democracy. Well, because it seems that there is nothing more.

What was, perhaps, their surprise, when it turned out that besides the bipolar “tyrant vs” the picture, there are several more options, and in them democracy, if it appears, is purely nominal. Or, rather, in its completely literal meaning - the power of the people. No one promised that the people wanted freedom, equality and other liberal values, and not hijabs, clitoris and burning churches. Perhaps an exceptionally bad and worthless people got out, but others were not brought to Libya or Egypt, alas.

At the same time, any educated person who has even the most minimal knowledge about the region immediately understands that the vacuum of power in countries of this type is impossible. The necessary detail of getting rid of a tyrant is to prepare a replacement. If, of course, you know what you are going to do, and you do not want the country to be “in the blood, in the guts” is divided.

Not in Libya or Egypt, nothing of the kind happened - no adequate replacement of the “overthrown tyrant”, replacement that would meet the interests of the United States in the region - at least the American interests that she had before Obama did not appear. Who would replace Gaddafi and Mubaraku even understand the child. And Mubarak, who was the most pro-American secular leader in the region, and Gaddafi, who was a sorry for the hand soon after the inauguration, could be saved, earned not only political points, but also strengthening American positions in the region. Moreover, both of them could be used to combat really uncomfortable and unwanted regimes in Syria and Iran. An attempt to play along and stir with frankly radical Islamic structures without a specific action program did not have any long -term or short -term political perspective useful for the interests of the United States. This could afford Reagan during the confrontation with the Soviet Union in the last century, when the Islamists really were just a convenient tool for influencing the "Muslim underbuilding" of the USSR. After September 11, after the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, these cute games look not meaningless, but suicidal.

Here, lovers of conspiracy theories can begin to talk about the fact that Gaddafi removed the Saudis with the hands of Muslim Obama, for Gaddafi and Saudis hated each other long and passionately. But even if you believe in this theory regarding Libyan events, it absolutely does not explain the events in Egypt. Because the Saudis in a bad dream would not have dreamed of demolishing Mubarak in order to put Mursi and the Muslim brothers in his place, thus receiving a black hole with 80 million hungry and aggressive Egyptians instead of a secular ally - the state of the Sunni bloc. Which, by the way, according to the latest surveys, see in Shiite Iran (sworn enemy of the Saudis) a good friend and dream of nuclear weapons. In the Saudi publications that did not have access to the Internet and the English versions, over the past year, analytical articles about the regional policy of the White House have been so sharp that it was just right to think about what expressions the editor cut out of the text. Their common leitmotif resembled an old saying of a forehead broken during prayer and complaints in the spirit "with such a friend it is better to do everything yourself and openly, because then all unclean animals will be hung on you." One of the authors even pointed out that in the confrontation with Shiites, even Zionists, like temporary allies, are better than the current “friendly administration” of the White House, whose plans cannot be guessed for the future.

The destruction of the Gaddafi regime led, in particular, to the plunder of weapons warehouses and, which is even more unpleasant, banks, supplying the “people's masses” with a large number of both portable automatic weapons, grenade launchers and MANPADS, and a very large amount of cash in various western currency. Try to track where they dispersed and disperse? Did they really fall into the hands of terrorists?

The most unpleasant detail of the loss of the United States is the practical irreversibility of the situation created thanks to Chenge. The region for more than a year has undergone such changes that the United States simply does not have enough resources for its “reversal”, which can be produced only by power methods. Which will lead to the opposite result - even more hatred of America and the desire to establish contacts with its opponents.

The fact that it really happens with the American policy in the region, we will have to guess for a long time within the framework of the existing dichotomy. Subconsciously, I would like to hope that all the events there are still the result of some kind of strategy, although the facts stubbornly prove that the matter is not about any "villainy" of Obama of a grandiose scale, but about a simple stupidity. "Good people of bloodsupolis expected him, and he ate Chizhik," Mikhail Evgrafovich would say ...