Translated material
Unemployment in the Penza region
I read an article today: On the labor market in Penza, there is one person for three vacancies ( http://www.penzainform.ru/news/social/2012/07/20/na_rinke_truda_v_penze_na_tri_vakansii_prihoditsya_odin_chelovek.html ). And I decided to conduct my own research on the labor market in the region using the resources of official statistics.
According to information from the Territorial Body of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Penza Region: Labor force balance on average for 2009 ( http://www.pnz.gks.ru/digital/region9/DocLib/bzt.xls ), date of publication August 18, 2011 ., file size 28 KB:
1. Working age population – 807,044 people.
2. The average annual number of people employed in the economy is 667,695 people.
Minus, we get 139,349 unemployed people of working age in the region, which is approximately 17.27% of the total number of people of working age, this is the maximum level that can be. In fact, the level of unemployed is naturally lower, but not significantly, since the working-age population includes students and some other categories of citizens, their number will be about 50,000 people, if we take into account Fig. 13. The number of university students in the Penza region and neighboring regions, per 10 thousand people, as of 2006 ( http://atlas.socpol.ru/portraits/penza.shtml ), with a downward trend. Then the percentage of unoccupied people will be about 11-12%. According to official statistics. But, as we know, students try to earn extra money, not all of them, of course.
Now let's move on to the terms.
What is the average annual number of people employed in the economy? Those employed in the economy include persons of both sexes who, during the period under review:
- performed hired work for remuneration, as well as self-employed income-generating work, both with and without the involvement of hired workers;
- performed work without pay in a family business;
- temporarily absent from work due to illness, annual leave or days off, training, study leave, leave without pay or partial pay at the initiative of the administration, strike, etc.
Data on an average annual basis are generated once a year when compiling the balance of labor resources based on information from enterprises and organizations (on the number of employees), materials from a sample survey of the population on employment issues (on the number of people engaged in entrepreneurial activities without forming legal entities, farmers) , data from the migration service authorities (on the number of foreign citizens working in the economy), additional estimates for the number of informal employment not identified during the sample survey of the population. Average annual number of employed (average number of employed) ( http://vocable.ru/dictionary/646/word/srednegodovaja-chislenost-zanjatyh-srednespisochnaja-chislenost-zanjatyh ).
That is, if you worked in a year not for a full year, but only for one month, then you will still be included in these statistics, which are compiled for the reporting period (the number at the beginning of the reporting period and at the end of the reporting period is taken and the arithmetic average is calculated, for year, per month).
Unfortunately, statistics do not show the turnover of the working-age population. And this is also an important factor.
Let me remind you that you and I received about 10-12% of unemployed people as of the end of the 2000s in the Penza region, i.e. at the end of 2009.
Is this a lot or a little for the Penza region? Let's turn to the same Rosstat: 2. Employment and unemployment (2011-2012 ( http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/b12_01/IssWWW.exe/Stg/d05/3-2.htm Rosstat tells us that the unemployment rate throughout the year on average in Russia ranges from 5 to 8 percent, or about 6.5% per year, as an arithmetic average.
As we can see, the employment situation is almost 2 times worse than the average for Russia. At the same time, we took the best statistics on the number of students in the Penza region for 2006!!! Meanwhile, in Russia in the next three years the number of students will decrease by 2 million people ( http://www.asfera.info/news/one-40536.html ) (information from 06/04/2010)!!! “...Minister of Education and Science of the Russian Federation Andrei Fursenko, speaking at the government hour before deputies of the State Duma. “The number of students has decreased by 40%; now the demographic crisis is moving into the sphere of vocational education. If recently we observed a rapid increase in the number of university students, then in the next three years we will see a decline of at least 2 million people,” the minister said...” Therefore, we brightened up the statistics for the better, for reporting purposes. Unfortunately, information on the number of students in the Penza region over the past 6 years is not available. If we take the Russian average as a percentage, then the number of students in our region should have decreased by at least 10-20% by 2012 (of those 40% for Fursenko), based on the above, i.e. additionally, at least 1 -2% to our 10-12%. Here's an oil painting.
What the statistics are disingenuous about, look at the table: Dynamics of recruitment and departure of workers ( http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/b12_01/IssWWW.exe/Stg/d05/3-2.htm ). The commentary to the table says: “According to the surveyed organizations, in May 2012. 2.6% of the payroll number of employees was hired, 2.9% of the payroll number of workers left for various reasons (in April 2012, 2.8% and 3.0%, respectively).” That is, about 3%, if we multiply this by 12 months a year, we get that employees in the surveyed organizations were updated by more than a third - by 36%, at least!!! This indicates turnover and, most likely, working conditions! And no one is probably worried about these organizations!
But let's return to the Penza region.
It is not possible to request statistical data for 2010-2012 on the website of the territorial body of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Penza region, since the form for requesting and displaying statistics is located at http://www.pnz.gks.ru/db_dg /dbinet.cgi?pl=2223011 , turned out to be inoperative. It's a pity, statistics for recent years would be interesting. Therefore, the question arose: “Why is the site inoperable, which, quite possibly, was not created for free? And which does not display statistics for recent years.”
As you know, the unemployment rate in cities is much lower (up to an order of magnitude) than in rural areas, and taking into account the dynamics of the last year, it should only increase. Therefore, it is obvious that for Penza the unemployment rate should not be lower than the minimum 1-1.2% or maximum 1.2-1.4% as of the end of 2009. And taking into account the stagnation (reduction) of industrial production in Russia since February 2011, it should be even higher in dynamics. Therefore, I was very surprised by the information presented in the article In Penza there is one person for three vacancies ( http://www.penzainform.ru/news/social/2012/07/20/na_rinke_truda_v_penze_na_tri_vakansii_prihoditsya_odin_chelovek.html ), that “... “ The unemployment rate is 0.87%, that is, less than one; tension in the labor market is 0.37 people per vacancy. In other words, there is one employee for three vacancies,” Sergei Zakharov clarified. …” Somehow, the almost first-crisis 1-1.2% I received for 2009 do not correlate in any way (the “softest” percentages, the “hardest” ones will be, without accounting data for the last stagnation year!!!, as mentioned above , 1.2-1.4%) with the data of citizen S. Zakharov about 0.87% during the crisis period of 2012, the discrepancies are significant. I would like to be mistaken, but there are no statistics on the Penza Rosstat website.
I will add that lower unemployment in the city, under favorable economic conditions, is up to an order of magnitude, in unfavorable conditions of stagnation it gives exactly the opposite effect, increasing several times compared to the regional average, I hope that this statement does not need to be explained? What does this mean? This suggests that it is quite possible in Penza now not 3 vacancies per 1 applicant, but at least 3 applicants per vacancy. This is indirectly confirmed from my personal experience not only in enterprises in Penza, but even in Zarechny, they constantly talk about reducing (optimizing) staff.
These may be the statistics for Penza and the Penza region. We are left guessing at the tea leaves due to the lack of official information that should be publicly available to citizens.
Nikitushkin Andrey.