Monitoring / government regulation

In 2013-2014, due to the introduction of a ban on the sale of beer and tobacco at points of sale with an area of up to 50 square meters. m, large retail will receive an additional 2.75 trillion rubles due to the displacement of kiosks and small stores from the market. revenue, according to information and analytical agency INFOLine. Let us recall that last week the Russian government submitted to the State Duma a bill “On protecting public health from the effects of environmental tobacco smoke and the consequences of tobacco consumption,” which involves introducing a ban on the sale of cigarettes in non-stationary retail establishments. At the same time, in accordance with the already adopted amendments to the legislation, from January 1, 2013, similar restrictions come into force in relation to the sale of beer.

The study notes that the main beneficiaries of the state's new approach to regulation in this area will be traditional stores and pavilions with an area of more than 50 square meters. m, as well as chain stores of modern formats - mainly discounters and hypermarkets. According to INFOLine CEO Mikhail Burmistrov, limiting sales will contribute to the outflow of consumers to large retail, where sales of not only beer and tobacco, but also other types of food products will increase.

Of the total revenue flow of 2.75 trillion rubles. (including VAT) for the first two years of the ban, traditional stores and pavilions with an area of more than 50 square meters. m will receive 1050 billion rubles, chain stores of modern formats - 950 billion rubles, convenience stores of modern formats - more than 600 billion, non-chain supermarkets - 150 billion rubles. As a result, the share of modern formats in food retail turnover will increase from 44% in 2011 to 69% in 2014. By 2014, sales volume in retail outlets with an area of less than 50 square meters. m will be reduced by 1.3 trillion rubles. The share of small businesses in total retail turnover will decrease from 28% in 2011 to 10% in 2014.

The outflow of consumers and a sharp reduction in revenue will lead to the closure of about 60 thousand small retail facilities, including 30 thousand kiosks, 10 thousand pavilions and 12 thousand traditional stores with an area of less than 50 square meters. m. Now beer and tobacco account for up to 80% of sales at kiosks, up to 55% at pavilions, and 15-40% at small shops. According to the forecasts of the study’s authors, in rural areas, where there are practically no stores of modern formats, an illegal market with a volume of more than 320 billion rubles will be formed, and as a result, more than 300 thousand people will be involved in the shadow trade.

Vadim Visloguzov

Anti-tobacco law will lead to market redistribution