Sergei Shoigu yesterday spent his first day as head of the Ministry of Defense. On Tuesday, Vladimir Putin fired Anatoly Serdyukov and appointed the former head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations in his place. Journalist Stanislav Kucher is confident that Sergei Shoigu’s next career leap is caused by reasons that have nothing to do with the need to urgently appoint a new defense minister.

The tubs of mud publicly poured on the former minister, and the appearance in a new capacity of the “Savior” (as Shoigu was long ago dubbed by the Ministry of Emergency Situations with a degree of respectful irony) are events of completely different political nature. The only thing that unites them is the figure of Putin. But Shoigu’s choice in this case is not proof of the banal and true thesis about Putin’s insignificantly short bench. I have no doubt: Putin has been planning to transfer Shoigu to the “new league” for a long time.

Moreover, serious career offers were made to the founder of the Ministry of Emergency Situations before, but he began to accept them quite recently, from the moment of his appointment to the post of head of the Moscow region. I am sure: it was from this moment that Shoigu took a strong place on the short list of Putin’s possible successors. The appointment to the post of Minister of Defense, and in the case of Shoigu specifically, this means becoming actually the second most powerful person in the state, only strengthens me in this confidence.

Putin is looking more seriously than ever at the legendary Tuvan as a potential president of Russia. And Shoigu, for the first time in at least 13 years, by agreeing to “change places”, shows that he is internally ready for this game.

In Putin’s system, falling into a narrow circle of “successors” absolutely deprives a person of independence, maximally limits his political opportunities, leaving only one – the chance to gain unlimited opportunities. Previously, I repeat, Sergei Kuzhugetovich did not play these games. He worked as an “ambulance” who is never late, and became, perhaps, the only statesman in post-Soviet Russia to whom the majority of Russians have no complaints at all.

Why did you agree now? Hardly under threat of a “whip”: it’s hard to imagine how he could be intimidated. Moreover, it is unlikely that under the temptation of the “carrot” it is even more difficult to imagine how one can buy it. Shoigu has long been his own tsar with all the Russian attributes of this title. Most likely, he himself wanted a new role. Or he realized that if he didn’t play it, then the whole theater would be over. I’ll leave it to your imagination to think about what kind of president Shoigu would make.

But here’s what I’ll note: if Putin finally realized that he would have to leave earlier than he planned, then this is a strong political move on his part. Or this: since Putin makes such a move, it means he understands that he will have to leave earlier. Who prefers which option?

“Putin is looking more seriously than ever at Shoigu as a possible successor.”