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Latvia recognized as the “weak link” of NATO’s eastern border

In mid-October, the report “Security and Defense Capacity of the Baltic States”, prepared by a group of experts commissioned by the local Ministry of Defense, was published in Sweden. Assessing the military potential of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, experts came to the conclusion that the latter has the least capabilities to counter external threats. On this basis, Estonia concluded that Latvia would simply set up its neighbors in the event of war. Riga categorically disagrees with this statement.

The 115-page report contains not only an analysis of the defense capabilities of the Baltic republics - there is a lot of interesting stuff there, including an assessment of Russian military reform and NATO prospects in the event of possible aggression from the East. It is clear that the Baltic republics are not able to fight Russia on equal terms on their own and are directly dependent on the support of the alliance, but there are significant differences between them.

Experts, in particular, recognized that Estonia currently has the most combat-ready army. Its armed forces number 5,500 troops, and in case of mobilization can be increased by another 30 thousand people, which makes it possible to fully staff one infantry brigade, four separate battalions and four defensive areas. In addition, there are 12,000 people in the Estonian Defense League, the so-called Defense League, a volunteer paramilitary force that also reports to the Ministry of Defense. The Estonian army is armed with about 100 armored personnel carriers, 100 artillery pieces, 230 mortars, a number of ATGMs and air defense systems. The air force consists of two transport aircraft and four helicopters, and the military fleet is represented by boats and four minesweepers. Estonia's military budget is 1.86 percent of GDP, but it is planned to increase to two percent.

Estonian soldiers in Afghanistan. Photo from militaryphotos.net

Overall, the report says, the Estonian army is a force capable of contributing to stability in the region, and any would-be aggressor who decides to forcefully take over the republic will face serious resistance.

Against the background of such a flattering description for Estonians, the state of affairs in Latvia looks deplorable. The republic's defense budget was cut in half from 2008 to 2010 and amounted to 1.14 percent of GDP in 2011 (although it is planned that over the next ten years it will be increased to two percent). The Latvian armed forces consist of 5,500 military personnel and 10,000 reservists. The army is consolidated into two infantry battalions and a battalion of the National Guard, a volunteer paramilitary unit that is part of the Ministry of Defense. At the same time, the operational headquarters existing in the country consist exclusively of administrative personnel.

In the event of general mobilization, Latvia will receive another 14 lightly armed infantry battalions, one artillery battalion, one air defense battalion and several auxiliary units. A common problem for the army is the shortage of heavy weapons - in particular, it has neither armored personnel carriers nor any other armored vehicles, and also lacks short- and medium-range air defense systems. The air force consists of two light aircraft and six helicopters (previously there was information that there are only four helicopters and only two of them are operational), and the military fleet includes five ships, the main task of which is to clear mines in territorial waters. And although in the future the army reform, due to which more than a thousand positions were abolished in the armed forces, may bring benefits, at present it has seriously affected the defense capability of the republic, the authors of the study believe.

After the publication of the report, an article “Latvia poses a threat to the security of Estonia” appeared in the Estonian publication “ Postimees ”, the author of which, citing the opinions of a number of experts, concludes that in terms of security Latvia is an “empty place”, and Estonia should be most worried regarding the fact that a potential aggressor could strike at it from the south, that is, from Latvian territory.

As for, for example, the Latvian militia, according to reserve lieutenant colonel of the Estonian Defense Forces Leo Kunnas, the 10 thousand people declared in the National Guard “exist only on paper.” “Ultimately,” the article says, “the situation is that the armed forces of Latvia, neither quantitatively nor qualitatively, have independent defense capabilities and are not ready to participate in international cooperation.”

Latvian soldier during an exercise. Photo by Reuters

The author sees the explanation for the current situation in the misuse of funds that, according to documents, are allocated to the Latvian army, but in fact go to the purchase of the president’s official cars, the construction of sports grounds, the organization of singing festivals, and so on. “All this is being done to give NATO the impression that defense spending is increasing,” states the article, which is replete with phrases like “in the event of war, the Latvian army will be able to guard sacks of flour and bridges somewhere in the rear, but for the military action is not suitable" or "our fighting soldiers move on armored personnel carriers, and Latvians run on their own two feet."

It is clear that Latvia could not stand aside, but chose to react to an article in an Estonian publication rather than to a study published in Sweden. According to Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks, the article in Rostimees is tendentious, it “heats up the atmosphere and does not contribute to the unity of the Baltic countries.” “Brother Estonians can sleep peacefully - the southern border is safe,” Pabriks assured. In turn, Latvian President Andris Berzins recalled that the republic has proven its defense capability by participating in the NATO mission in Afghanistan (there are currently more than 150 Latvian soldiers there). “I am more than sure that at least in this industry everything is in order,” said the Latvian leader. And Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis called not to pay attention to “every newspaper article.”

But the parliamentary secretary of the Latvian Ministry of Defense, Veiko Spolitis, connected the publication in Rostimees with the ongoing debate in Estonia about the transition from a conscript system to a professional army - such as in Latvia. At the same time, as if refuting all the critical remarks addressed to the Latvian army, the official recalled that a couple of years ago the Estonian armed forces borrowed a T-55 tank from Latvia for exercises, which was removed from service as it did not meet NATO standards. Well, a tank - it, of course, changes everything.

Peter Bologov

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Related links

Lenta.ru: former USSR: Empty space