Where will China go with a new secretary general?

Following the results of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party, 59-year-old Xi Jinping was elected as the new party leader, replacing Hu Jintao, who led the country and the party for 10 years. “In the new situation, our party faces many serious challenges, including within the party,” Xi Jinping said after his election . “We need to make significant efforts to solve problems such as corruption, bureaucracy and formalism.”

PublicPost learned from experts about who Xi Jinping is and what to expect from him.

Alexander Gabuev, deputy editor-in-chief of the magazine "Vlast".

Xi Jinping's ascension to the position of General Secretary and Supreme Leader of the People's Republic of China is not unexpected. He became a member of the Politburo Standing Committee five years ago and all this time he was preparing to become Hu Jintao’s successor, so the main thing that should be expected from him is continuity in foreign policy and domestic policy for at least the next five years. The fact is that the personality of the first leader is, of course, important, but it does not have a determining role, as in Russia, since all decisions are made not by one person, as in our country, but by a collective body - the Standing Committee, which has seven people. So Xi Jinping will have to coordinate his decisions with his party colleagues.

—Who was he before joining the Politburo Standing Committee?

Xi Jinping has a stellar track record. He belongs to the group of “heirs”, that is, children of high-ranking leaders of past years. His father was one of the heroes of the civil war, an associate of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. Xi Jinping participated in the Cultural Revolution in his youth: he worked in the village for a very long time in difficult conditions. Then he returned and graduated from the very prestigious Xinhua University. For a long time he worked in leadership positions in the central and provincial apparatus. He achieved considerable success in the development of the coastal provinces. He performed brilliantly at the Olympics, for which he was responsible at the final stage. In general, the last five years have shown that Xi Jinping is coping with all tasks.

— Will China's foreign policy change? Relations with Russia?

Not much is known about his foreign policy views. He has a warm attitude towards Russia, due to the fact that his father raised him that way. To other countries? China now feels more and more confident on the international stage. During the 2009 crisis, Xi Jinping allowed himself a remark in Mexico that, supposedly, snickering foreigners blame China for the crisis, and thereby shift the problems from a sore head to a healthy one. He did not allow himself any other harsh statements, so he also cannot be considered anti-Western, especially since his daughter studies at Harvard. He is fully integrated into the world elite and understands the importance of cooperation with the West.

Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the magazine "Russia in Global Affairs".

In China, there are no random people at the top, that is, Xi Jinping has gone all the way that a person scheduled for such a high position must go. He is at least very experienced and knows all the ins and outs of the Chinese government and society. Firstly, he is from a family of hereditary party bosses. Secondly, he worked in a variety of positions, from low to high. And in this sense, his choice is very clear. In China, they are generally afraid of cases similar to what happened in the USSR with Mikhail Gorbachev, when a person suddenly jumps up to a high position and behaves unpredictably. At the same time, Xi Jinping is a compromise figure, the product of an agreement between significant figures.

— How long can Xi Jinping stay in power?

In China there is an unwritten rule, but strictly observed since the 90s, that the leadership cannot be in power for more than two terms: the Central Committee and the Standing Committee of the Politburo are constantly rotated. This is the lesson that the Chinese leadership has learned from its own and Soviet history: the permanence of power leads to stagnation.

— Should we expect changes in China’s political course?

There will be changes in Chinese politics, but this will not be related to Xi Jinping or the composition of the leadership in general. Changes will depend on what happens in the country and in the world. Because, as most commentators believe, China has reached a certain limit of development within the framework of a model that has brought remarkable economic results over the past 30-35 years. Now the model needs to be adjusted.

On the other hand, the world has changed so much and become so unpredictable that China is watching with some concern what is happening and how this may affect its internal stability. Deng Xiaoping bequeathed China to keep a low profile for as long as possible, warning that as soon as China begins to show its strength and power, they will begin to counteract it. The impression of China's unimportance persisted for quite a long time, but that's it now. No matter what China does, it will no longer be able to “hide behind the bushes” - now all the world's attention is focused on it. This means that any steps will be interpreted as a threat. And this is a big problem for the new leadership. So in the next 10 years, Xi Jinping will try to maintain the level of development and economic growth that we have now, and at the same time ensure that this does not meet with fierce opposition from the outside.

Andrey Korneev, Deputy Director of the Institute of Asian and African Countries, Moscow State University. Lomonosov.

— Should we expect changes in China’s political course?

The policy will gradually change due to the growing importance of the PRC on the world stage. The pace of economic growth suggests that China will increase its economic and political influence. Accordingly, behave more confidently. Toughness towards counterparties and partners cannot be ruled out.

— Will relations with Russia change?

Efforts will be made to increase cooperation in the near future. We have potential in the investment and economic spheres, but disagreements may arise on certain issues. In general, the course of cooperation will continue.

— Will China democratize?

We can expect careful measures to increase the transparency of decision-making and accountability for them. But there will be no democratization in its Western sense - at the congress it was stated that Western institutions are not entirely suitable for China.