About the opposition strategy

Today the Constitutional Court must offer the opposition some fairly clear guiding idea: “what’s next?” Give your understanding of the situation in the country and suggest ways of transition to democratic reforms. This is what is expected from the CS today. Something that will allow you to move from words to action.

Interaction with authorities

One variant of this idea is to try to interact with the authorities. Where possible, try to influence the authorities (like the Human Rights Commission). Strive to enter power structures (the State Duma) and through them influence processes in the country. Contribute to the split of the elite and the strengthening of that part of it that understands the need for reforms. In other words, try to influence the situation from above. Some similar measures may be useful. For example, I see direct meaning in establishing and maintaining contact with the liberal-minded part of the elite (see more about this below). However, in general, this option is clearly not suitable as the main idea of ​​the strategy. The current government is not interested in change and will block serious attempts to change something. Such a strategy would be largely a waste of time and effort.

An attempt to rock the country

Another option is to try today to actively increase pressure on the authorities, try to shake up society, and organize rallies of millions. A good example of this approach is the call by Sergei Udaltsov (http://www.facebook.com/events/518581858154183 ) for the March of Millions on December 8th in Moscow. As the theme of the march, he puts forward a range of political demands. Then he writes:

"...in order for the whole of Russia to hear our program, we will demand live broadcast on central television channels. And, of course, we will demand that authorized representatives of the federal authorities come to our square. And we will begin negotiations with them right there according to our requirements, this will be the right approach, which will allow us to begin a gradual recovery from the political crisis.

On December 8, the largest civilian protest in recent times is due to take place. The March of Millions will take place not only in Moscow, but throughout the country. This will be an ALL-RUSSIAN PROTEST! Of course, we, as before, are waiting for the most active citizens in the capital. Well, for those comrades who will not go to Moscow, we ask you to start preparing the March (in the format of processions, rallies, flash mobs) in your cities. Thus, on December 8, a protest action may take place in 50-60 cities of Russia.

So, the offensive against swindlers and thieves continues. In order for it to become victorious, so that our demands do not remain empty declarations, there MUST BE A LOT OF US!”

Thus, Sergei himself admits that the condition for the success of the action is its mass participation. This is where the disconnect from the reality of such an approach manifests itself. The dynamics of the mass numbers of street actions over the past year shows that not only is it impossible to talk about a million-strong rally, but on the contrary, their numbers are decreasing. A country is a complex social mechanism. Phenomena such as changes in living standards and growing discontent among the population are largely objective processes and the ability of the opposition to influence them is very limited. Emotional wishes are not enough here. I myself would vote with both hands for Udaltsov’s proposals if the situation in the country allowed them to be implemented. But when they seriously claim that it is possible to achieve a live broadcast of the procession on central television channels or that representatives of the federal government will come for negotiations, this shows how large the gap is between such ideas and the real state of affairs.

For the opposition’s actions to be successful, it is necessary to take into account the objective processes in the country. Without such consideration, they will not only not be effective, but can cause serious harm to the opposition movement. Intensifying the situation will lead to a harsh reaction from the authorities and criminal sentences for its leaders. The opposition will be beheaded. The ineffectiveness of this path will lead to disappointment in people and the loss of a large number of supporters.

Increasing the number of supporters

Indeed, the key to the success of opposition activity is its mass character. When you put forward a demand, and millions of people take to the squares at your call, and businesses go on strike across the country, you can achieve any change. In such a situation, the authorities have to reckon with any of your demands. Today, there are clearly not enough active supporters of democratic reforms. An increase in their number should therefore be taken as the main guiding idea of ​​the strategy for today.

As has already been said, first of all we need to proceed from objective processes in society. The main mechanism for increasing the number of supporters of change is the growing discontent of the population caused by a decrease in living standards. Uncontrolled power is unable to effectively solve problems and meet the demands of the time. She works against herself. The Putin regime demonstrates, for example, its inability to transform the Russian economy from a raw material basis to high technology. This inevitably leads to a deterioration in the economic situation, a lag behind developed countries, and increased discontent among the population.

Of course, such a scenario cannot be encouraging. The European option is better: a serious problem brings a quarter of the country to the streets and the situation is quickly resolved. But the low level of civic consciousness of Russians makes it, apparently, inevitable. Here it is also impossible to predict how long this process will develop. This could be 2-3 years in the event of a sharp deterioration in the economic situation (for example, a sharp drop in oil prices), or it could last for decades. What to do? This is an objective reality that must be accepted as it is. The opposition is ready to lead the population's protest at any moment, but is forced to wait until it matures and develops into a truly mass phenomenon.

Against the background of this objective process, the opposition, for its part, must actively contribute to the growth of the number of supporters. I see the following main directions of such activity.

- Elections. Participation in them allows you to conduct election campaigns and agitation among the population. Put forward programs and proposals on specific problems that compare favorably with what the authorities propose. This is the alternative that the opposition constantly offers to society. Elections also allow for the active involvement of new people through the observer system. It is also an excellent school for politicians from opposition parties. Finally, elections are the main indicator of the mood in society. Participation in them allows you to see how ripe the situation in the country is for change.

- Regions. In terms of political activity, the regions are far behind the center. And this despite the fact that the standard of living there is lower and, accordingly, social dissatisfaction is higher. That is, the regions are potentially very beneficial to the opposition (“2012” with Ryzhkov from 10/5/12 on “Echo of Moscow”). Expanding the field of action to the regions opens up new opportunities in expanding the number of people involved in opposition activities. Such work will also allow many regional politicians to undergo a good schooling and connect them with the population. In general, regions, in my opinion, should be considered today as one of the main priorities.

— School for a young politician. The opposition needs to prepare a new generation of politicians. Those who can competently conduct their election campaign and work with people. The opposition also needs to train/recruit competent political strategists. Those who will professionally assess social moods, the demand for different ideas, and be able to successfully convey to the audience what the opposition offers.

— Information and explanatory work. What Navalny and Co. are doing and Nemtsov’s famous reports about Putin and Luzhkov. During election campaigns, conduct live campaigning work at the place of residence of voters, especially where there is not enough Internet. In my opinion, this work is worth expanding. Conduct some kind of lecture course on an ongoing basis. To acquaint people with the results of model forecasts for Russia, from which it is clear what awaits it if the current course of power is maintained. Using historical material, show how other countries went through periods similar to today’s Russia.

— Contact with elites. The split in the elites is their response to the deteriorating situation in the country. Just as the population's response to it is an increase in discontent. In this mutual process from above and below, it is certainly important to establish and maintain working contact with that part of the elite that understands the need for change. Then, when decisive events occur, the mutual coordination of these two movements can help avoid bloodshed. This shows, in particular, the importance of contact with the army and the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

- Rallies. The proposed approach allows us to approach street actions differently. Today they are seen as a tool with which the opposition leadership is trying to stir up society. However, the request for rallies must come from below, from society, and not from the Constitutional Court. Real rallies grow out of people's indignation, which is what happened in December 2011. In 90-91. it did not take much effort to bring hundreds of thousands of people into the square. When such a request appears, the task of the opposition leadership is to let it be realized, to organize an action. There is no such request - and there is no need to try to forcefully arouse street enthusiasm. Then the strange situation in which the leadership of the opposition for some reason bears responsibility for maintaining a high level of street activity will end.

— Contact with Western organizations. This is what helped, for example, the “Magnitsky list” to appear.

— In addition to all the above points, there must, of course, be a constant struggle for the release of political prisoners.

The described approach is essentially evolutionary. And this is his strength. Everything real and viable grows evolutionarily from the previous phase. Trying to beat time doesn't lead to anything good. The modern opposition cannot afford to achieve its goal by any means necessary, as the Bolsheviks did.

He's realistic. The opposition does not break away from the real state of affairs, but constantly correlates its actions with the situation. It seems to go along with the process - the birth of democracy - and helps it. The truest role that the opposition can take on is to be the midwife of Russian democracy.

Finally, this approach opens up the possibility of a peaceful transfer of power to the opposition. The growing number of supporters of change will at some stage lead to the fact that not tens of thousands, but actually millions, will take to the streets in response to calls like today.

This analysis shows that the main thing now is to stop endlessly breaking spears about street actions (which today determine little) and switch to the positive: elections, regions, personnel training, outreach work with people.