Was there a chance?

The New Times asked experts about the protests

Was there a chance? —
The New Times asked the experts

Lev Gudkov, director of the Levada Center : There was none. Because the opposition had neither a program of action nor authoritative leaders who could negotiate with the authorities.

Sergey Guriev, Rector of NES : I was. The protesters came out not to change the regime, but to demand fair elections. If 4-5 times more people took to the streets, then, probably, they could achieve this.

Lilia Shevtsova, Carnegie Center : No. The December 2011 awakening could not bring about a regime change (Putin's rule), nor a change in the system of personalist power, which still finds support even among those who consider themselves liberals. Why? Because there is no systemic alternative, no political force that has a program to get out of the autocracy and enjoys mass support from the population.

What did the protests give?

Lev Gudkov : There has been a consolidation of the liberal, pro-Western part of the population and a consolidation of the conservative periphery. And between these two consolidated groups there is a split that cannot be eliminated. It would be good if the leaders realized this and worked out an agenda. The problems are not in the government, but in the opposition.

Lilia Shevtsova : Awakening is of great importance as a factor that shows the limits on autocracy: the strengthening of the repressiveness of power indicates that it has entered a phase of agony. The awakening was also the impetus for the formation of a new type of opposition movement, although the process is still in its very early stages.

Will there be - and when - the next chance?

Lev Gudkov : The next elections - to the Moscow Duma (2013) - may provide an incentive for mass demonstrations. Because the authorities will use the same technologies to save their creatures. The reasons for the protests of the urban class have not gone away, and this class has become more consolidated: it understands its incompatibility with Putin.

Sergei Guriev : The elections to the Constitutional Court were very important: they showed how the protest movement works. Perhaps the Constitutional Court will be able to achieve the fulfillment of Bolotnaya's demands - to hold fair elections.

Lilia Shevtsova : It is impossible to predict when a new wave of protests will rise. But given the state of the opposition, the protest is unlikely to have a transformational momentum. But each new wave will undermine the autocracy.