Translated material
Black Sea bypass
“South Stream” will accept most of the gas export of Russia through Ukraine.
The pipeline is almost 2500 kilometers (including 925 km along the bottom of the Black Sea), passing through the territory of seven countries and a total value of at least 16 billion euros, is designed to become the second stage of diversification in the areas of gas export from Russia to Europe.
Last Friday near Anapa, the symbolic first seam of the pipe was cooked, although the very construction of the underwater part of the gas pipeline is supposed to be launched in 2014, and commercial gas supplies for the first of the four planned lines-by the end of 2015.
Just two months ago, in early October, Gazprom began building the second branch of the North Stream pipeline, along the bottom of the Baltic Sea to Germany, although its first line open a year ago, while only one third of its capacity works.
European demand
In 2012, the volumes of Russian gas exports to Europe, which are in recession, decreased by about 8%, and no noticeable growth in the demand of Europeans for gas is not expected in the coming years, experts say. At the same time, increasing competition in the European market is obvious and without any forecasts - both by expanding the import of liquefied gas into Europe, and plans for the construction of alternative to the "southern flow" of gas pipelines.
The increase in gas demand in Europe can resume after some time, but it is unlikely to exceed 1.5-2% per year, the analyst of the metropoline investment company Sergei Vakhmeyev believes. According to its forecasts, the new gas pipeline will be mainly filled with the Russian gas that would otherwise be delivered to Europe through the territory of Ukraine: “I think it will be about two -thirds of all volumes. And only one third can be delivered by the“ new “gas for European consumers”.
About two -thirds of Russian gas exports to the European countries pass through the territory of Ukraine today, although four years ago this share exceeded 80%. The total capacity of the Nord Stream and Southern Stream actually coincides with the then volumes of Ukrainian transit of Russian gas.
The South Stream was also conceived primarily as an alternative to the Ukrainian route, agrees the head of the analytical department of the investment company “Aton” Vyacheslav Bunkov. "However, given the dynamics of gas demand in Europe, for the next five years the economic efficiency of the new project is still doubtful."
Demand for gas in Europe, even against the backdrop of the weak economic growth of the region, can grow at the expense of other energy carriers - everything will depend on the dynamics of their prices for them, says Maxim Shein: “For example, the general consumption of energy of years in five years can remain at the current level, however, due to a change in the structure of the energy boans of Europe, the share of gas can be affected by the head Increased, accordingly, and the demand for gas will grow. "
With the conclusion of the South Stream to the design volumes of Gazprom’s export capacities in the European direction, 318 billion cubic meters per year were reached, Mikhail Korchecin, head of the East European Analysis consulting company, calculated. At the same time, the expert refers to Gazprom himself, the guaranteed volume of annual supplies to Europe for 2020–2025 is still 158 billion cubic meters.
EU requires
Over the past three to four years, Russia signed agreements with all European countries, through the territory of which the future gas pipeline should pass. During 2013, new discussions of the project are coming for the final approval in the structures of the European Union.
One of the main requirements that the EU makes power companies working or wishing to work in the European market is, in particular, to the separation of their business to extract raw materials from its transportation and sale to end consumers. As a result, access to oil or gas pipelines, as well as to the main power lines, is received by the third participants, thereby preventing the monopolization of supplies. This is directly reflected in the current code of pan -European rules for regulating the energy market - the so -called “third energy packet”.
The Russian “Gazprom”, on the one hand, falls under this requirement, being both a manufacturer of gas and its monopoly Russian exporter. On the other hand, for the Northern Stream project, the European Union made an exception, taking it beyond the scope of current regulation. But there are no exceptions for the South Stream so far, Russia only claims to be.
In countries where gas will be delivered by South Stream, it, in principle, will become only an additional source and therefore hardly strengthen the monopolization of local markets, suggests Vyacheslav Bunkov.
Given the composition of the shareholders of the new project, as well as the volumes of investment they have expected, the EU can individually bring the “southern flow” beyond the scope of the “third energy -covers” standards, Sergei Vakhramev also does not exclude.
The Russian Gazprom has 50% of participation in a new project. Another 20% - in the Italian Energy Company ENI, by a third of the state belonging to the state. And 15% - the German company Wintershall, which is part of the BASF chemical concern, as well as the French state company Electricite de France. Nevertheless, statements have already been received from Brussels that, unlike the Northern Stream, the South Stream project may not receive the same market preferences.
Even if there are no exceptions, there is another option - to offer Europe a good discount on the price of Russian gas, Maxim Shein believes. According to him, Gazprom itself can do this, but some other Russian company, for example, Novatek or Rosneft. "I agree, I will have to refuse the Gazprom export monopoly assigned by the law of the export monopoly. But this is unlikely to be an impossible task."
As a result, Shein concludes, the requirements of the Third Energy Pacet of the EU are quite respected: Russian gas, unlike the Northern Stream project, has several suppliers.
The head of the Energy Department of the European Commission, Gunther Ettinger, who previously called the construction of the South Stream underwater, the Phantom project, was not present at the official ceremony near Anapa last Friday, the British newspaper Financial Times said .
The pipeline is almost 2500 kilometers (including 925 km along the bottom of the Black Sea), passing through the territory of seven countries and a total value of at least 16 billion euros, is designed to become the second stage of diversification in the areas of gas export from Russia to Europe.
Last Friday near Anapa, the symbolic first seam of the pipe was cooked, although the very construction of the underwater part of the gas pipeline is supposed to be launched in 2014, and commercial gas supplies for the first of the four planned lines-by the end of 2015.
Just two months ago, in early October, Gazprom began building the second branch of the North Stream pipeline, along the bottom of the Baltic Sea to Germany, although its first line open a year ago, while only one third of its capacity works.
European demand
In 2012, the volumes of Russian gas exports to Europe, which are in recession, decreased by about 8%, and no noticeable growth in the demand of Europeans for gas is not expected in the coming years, experts say. At the same time, increasing competition in the European market is obvious and without any forecasts - both by expanding the import of liquefied gas into Europe, and plans for the construction of alternative to the "southern flow" of gas pipelines.
The increase in gas demand in Europe can resume after some time, but it is unlikely to exceed 1.5-2% per year, the analyst of the metropoline investment company Sergei Vakhmeyev believes. According to its forecasts, the new gas pipeline will be mainly filled with the Russian gas that would otherwise be delivered to Europe through the territory of Ukraine: “I think it will be about two -thirds of all volumes. And only one third can be delivered by the“ new “gas for European consumers”.
About two -thirds of Russian gas exports to the European countries pass through the territory of Ukraine today, although four years ago this share exceeded 80%. The total capacity of the Nord Stream and Southern Stream actually coincides with the then volumes of Ukrainian transit of Russian gas.
The South Stream was also conceived primarily as an alternative to the Ukrainian route, agrees the head of the analytical department of the investment company “Aton” Vyacheslav Bunkov. "However, given the dynamics of gas demand in Europe, for the next five years the economic efficiency of the new project is still doubtful."
Demand for gas in Europe, even against the backdrop of the weak economic growth of the region, can grow at the expense of other energy carriers - everything will depend on the dynamics of their prices for them, says Maxim Shein: “For example, the general consumption of energy of years in five years can remain at the current level, however, due to a change in the structure of the energy boans of Europe, the share of gas can be affected by the head Increased, accordingly, and the demand for gas will grow. "
With the conclusion of the South Stream to the design volumes of Gazprom’s export capacities in the European direction, 318 billion cubic meters per year were reached, Mikhail Korchecin, head of the East European Analysis consulting company, calculated. At the same time, the expert refers to Gazprom himself, the guaranteed volume of annual supplies to Europe for 2020–2025 is still 158 billion cubic meters.
EU requires
Over the past three to four years, Russia signed agreements with all European countries, through the territory of which the future gas pipeline should pass. During 2013, new discussions of the project are coming for the final approval in the structures of the European Union.
One of the main requirements that the EU makes power companies working or wishing to work in the European market is, in particular, to the separation of their business to extract raw materials from its transportation and sale to end consumers. As a result, access to oil or gas pipelines, as well as to the main power lines, is received by the third participants, thereby preventing the monopolization of supplies. This is directly reflected in the current code of pan -European rules for regulating the energy market - the so -called “third energy packet”.
The Russian “Gazprom”, on the one hand, falls under this requirement, being both a manufacturer of gas and its monopoly Russian exporter. On the other hand, for the Northern Stream project, the European Union made an exception, taking it beyond the scope of current regulation. But there are no exceptions for the South Stream so far, Russia only claims to be.
In countries where gas will be delivered by South Stream, it, in principle, will become only an additional source and therefore hardly strengthen the monopolization of local markets, suggests Vyacheslav Bunkov.
Given the composition of the shareholders of the new project, as well as the volumes of investment they have expected, the EU can individually bring the “southern flow” beyond the scope of the “third energy -covers” standards, Sergei Vakhramev also does not exclude.
The Russian Gazprom has 50% of participation in a new project. Another 20% - in the Italian Energy Company ENI, by a third of the state belonging to the state. And 15% - the German company Wintershall, which is part of the BASF chemical concern, as well as the French state company Electricite de France. Nevertheless, statements have already been received from Brussels that, unlike the Northern Stream, the South Stream project may not receive the same market preferences.
Even if there are no exceptions, there is another option - to offer Europe a good discount on the price of Russian gas, Maxim Shein believes. According to him, Gazprom itself can do this, but some other Russian company, for example, Novatek or Rosneft. "I agree, I will have to refuse the Gazprom export monopoly assigned by the law of the export monopoly. But this is unlikely to be an impossible task."
As a result, Shein concludes, the requirements of the Third Energy Pacet of the EU are quite respected: Russian gas, unlike the Northern Stream project, has several suppliers.
The head of the Energy Department of the European Commission, Gunther Ettinger, who previously called the construction of the South Stream underwater, the Phantom project, was not present at the official ceremony near Anapa last Friday, the British newspaper Financial Times said .