Anna Sakoyan: Pyongyansky Start

Anna Sakoyan

North Korea successfully launched the rocket on December 12, 2012 at about ten in the morning local time from the SOCE cosmodrome. The first step of the rocket, according to South Korean sources, fell into the yellow sea, and the second - to the Filipino Sea. Later, the command of the aerospace defense of North America (Norad) confirmed that the satellite entered the orbit. In Pyongyang , they dance on the streets on this occasion. The UN Security Council will discuss what to do next.

In early December, the North Korean leadership said that another attempt to launch the rocket was being prepared -eight months after the unsuccessful experience in April 2012, they did not call the exact date, they indicated only a time period: December 10-22. On December 10, it was announced that the terms of the alleged launch were extended until December 29 due to the fact that problems were discovered in the rocket engine. On December 11, news received that the rocket was dismantled from the launcher. Given the fact that less than a year has passed since the unsuccessful attempt, many experts expressed doubts that the launch, and even more successful, would take place.

“The launch time seems to have been a surprise for American officials,” writes Ny Times . “Just an hour before the start ... At a festive reception at the Japanese ambassador in Washington, they expressed the opinion that North Korea faced such technical problems that weeks would be released.” The Washington Post describes the impressions in a similar way: “After Pyongyang reported on the technical difficulties, because of which everything is postponed, such a quick launch was a surprise. It was even more unexpected that he was crowned with success after so many unsuccessful attempts. ”

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According to the Financial Times , the analyst from the International Crisis Group Daniel Pinkston noted on this regard that the statement about technical problems was probably a “fraudulent maneuver” designed to extinguish attention to launch from South Korean, Japanese and American intelligence. He noted that in case of success, this event will become a very valuable propaganda resource for the North Korean leadership, which "they will use with the maximum scope."

Further, the media put forward various interpretations and assessments of this news, and also try to predict. The first and main conclusion: the hopes that Kim Jong -un will turn out to be a peaceful leader will focus on economic reforms and make the country more friendly to the West, did not materialize . “The launch this time will mark a huge step forward for the north in terms of combining their successes in the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBR) and the development program of nuclear weapons” ( The Telegraph ). “This is an obvious success for the young and still unverified leader of the country Kim Jong -un and a step towards the national goal - the development of the technologies necessary for launching the ICBM” ( Ny Times ).

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One of the internal political messages of this event, writes Ny Times further, is that "the country, despite backwardness and isolation, was able to master the technology that it had previously sold to Iran, Pakistan and others." As for external influence, “some American officials who were afraid of growing cooperation on the development of the Iranian and North Korea, now claim that Iran wins no less from North Korean trials than North Korea.” Iran, by the way, has already officially congratulated North Korea on its achievements.

The meaning of this launch, in addition to the implementation of the domestic political mission (the statement of Kim Jong -un in the role of a strong leader), as Ny Times suggests, is to influence the governments of the United States, South Korea, Japan and China and make the international alignment more favorable for North Korea - especially taking into account the fact that elections have recently been held or will soon be held in each of these countries. The calculation, in particular, is that a successful launch will become a more effective argument than the previous unsuccessful ones. Another symbolic moment of this launch is that “this is, thanks to this launch that was made in the midst of the confrontation between the warring Korea, the North turned out to be a step closer than the south, to the development of space. Seoul recently abolished the attempt to launch the first satellite from his own territory, referring to technical difficulties. Two previous attempts by Seoul in 2009 and in 2010. Flapped ”( Washington Post ).

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The American media now ask the inevitable question: how great is the risk that North Korea will soon be able to direct its missiles to the United States? Generalized answer: North Korea, of course, is technically very far from striking the United States, but there is progress, and this inspires some fears. “North Korea will now focus on the development of missiles with a greater carrying capacity. Its main goal will be to plant nuclear warheads on them, ”the South Korean expert quotes the Washington Post. In an interview with NK News, the John Swenson-Wright (John Swenson-Wright) said: “At this stage, it is still difficult to judge how long the success of the launch will last, but the distance that the rocket has overcame ... probably suggests that Pyongyang, at least, succeeded in creating long-range missiles.”

Another burning issue now is that the international community can do with North Korea, in addition to expressing general condemnation. The problem here is that “in the case of North Korea there is not much space left for the application of new sanctions,” writes Stephen Haggard, an expert on North Korea. The domestic political resonance of this event, he believes, is beyond doubt. As for international relations, here, despite a certain effect of novelty, there should not be any big changes. At the current stage of North Korea, it is hardly possible to present something impressive from the outside.

According to North Korean estimates, grain reserves in the country will be enough for another three years. What exactly achieved by her launch Korea, in addition to universal indignation and anxiety, is also incomprehensible. At the exit, Haggard believes, the results of all this will probably be extremely insignificant. At a meeting of the UN Security Council, he continues, China and the United States will be the main warring parties. The United States will insist that serious measures should be taken, and China will talk about justice and equality. Although China has made a small diplomatic concession regarding the launch of the rocket, saying that with all equal rights, the UN instructions should not be violated, its common position will hardly change greatly.

Here, Haggard refers to the Chinese agency "Sinhua", where the editorial column warns against too hard rhetoric in relation to North Korea: “Over time, the situation on the peninsula entered a corkscrew of misunderstanding, distrust and hostility. The only realistic way out of this situation is the desire for a trusting relationship. ” The most inappropriate now is aggressive statements and gestures. You need to carefully and calmly discuss the situation at the negotiating table.

And for the United States, in essence, Haggard concludes, North Korean ambitions do not pose a big threat. North Korea is so poor that with all the desire it will not be able to realize its grandiose plans without outside help, and there is little chance of getting its chances.

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