Why did you come?

The energetic seething around the Freedom March on December 15 partly reproduces the prominence of social activity that Moscow suddenly threw into space a year ago. But a year ago everything was much clearer: we were deceived in the elections, we were no longer ready to tolerate it. It didn’t matter where to go - to Bolotnaya Square or somewhere else. What was important was why. And a clear understanding of this “why” eliminated many questions - Who? Where? How? With whom?

Now there is a clear answer to the question “why?” no, that’s why all the other questions “pop up”. The mood on the eve of December 15 seems best characterized by the word "confusion." Political risks, which on the afternoon of December 15 may be added to existing ones, do not decrease in any way. There are no more constructive solutions.

There are two conventional poles on the map of Russian political life: the government and the opposition. Sometimes their polarity in relation to each other begins, frankly, to raise doubts - so successfully they are able to act in unison.

What, for example, prevented the announcement of a new criminal case against Alexei Navalny not on the eve of, but after December 15? Afterwards, this could become a solid addendum to the indicative charge of violating the rules for holding mass events. And before - this is pure propaganda to support Navalny at the Freedom March, even if it is not sanctioned. The opposition flatly rejects any proposals from the mayor’s office on the route and thus takes itself outside the framework of the regime of sanctioned action - to the delight of the authorities, which, undoubtedly, will be happy to supplement the daily television series about the role of Georgy Targamadze in organizing the clashes on May 6 with fresh pictures.

By the way, the Georgian trace is successfully and not without pleasure being deployed by law enforcement officers into the main theme of the season. It’s already roughly clear what, from the point of view of the script’s authors, a beautiful denouement could look like: the valiant security officers prove that the inhuman regime of Mikheil Saakashvili was not just writhing from impotent anger since the 2008 war, but was plotting to break the entire Russian constitutional order. A blow is dealt both to the internal enemy - now everyone understands that Udaltsov is almost like Lenin, who arrived from the Kaiser’s Germany in a sealed carriage - and to the external one: the scandal with Targamadze plays into the hands of Saakashvili’s opponents, who are winning in Georgia, which will now also be for us - maybe.

However, sometimes it seems to me that behind this TV detective of Watergate proportions there is actually nothing except the typically Caucasian arrogance of some Georgian citizens. And without Russian investigators, it is no secret to anyone that quite a few in Georgia after the “Rose Revolution” in 2003 decided: there are no more advanced specialists in revolutionary technologies in the world. This idea comes from direct personal experience. When the first rally took place in Moscow on Bolotnaya Square in December 2011, I was in Istanbul at the Russian-Georgian expert conference. Both Russians and Georgians saw the picture of Bolotnaya on the Internet at the same time. And the Georgian colleagues - among them, I emphasize, there was no Georgy Targamadze, these were theorists, not practitioners - literally rushed to the Russians, rushing to share revolutionary observations.

There was no revolution in December 2011. Apparently, it will not happen today, even if people ready to resist the riot police come to the Lubyanka to Sergei Udaltsov and Alexei Navalny, despite the lack of sanctions and the cold. In the cold against riot police - this is the answer to the question “how?” And the answer to the question “why?” No.

By getting off with general phrases about how “we are all against this government,” it was possible to maintain protest activity throughout the year. And then it was accompanied by personnel turnover: many of those who came in December 2011 to protest against election violations, by September 15, 2012, did not even consider the possibility of going to Sakharov Avenue.

Yes, this year the Coordination Council was born. But before our eyes, the Coordination Council failed in its first case, which went beyond the internal squabbles of the Coordination Council: it was unable to obtain approval for the action on December 15. Although all previous actions, applications for which were submitted before the creation of the Constitutional Court, although difficult, were successfully agreed upon. The Constitutional Court decided to show integrity - but this is the kind of integrity that brings ordinary citizens under riot police batons. Even this would be explainable in Lenin’s logic “the worse, the better” - if this “revolution” had a clear goal. A clear answer to the question “why”.

So far, from a combination of clever omissions and slogans written on banners, the answer to the question “why?” one emerges: “For Putin to leave.” But this is rather an answer to the “how” question: “how to unblock the process of political change?” - "For example, by resigning the president." We are not told anything about the meaning and content of these supposed political changes. There is not enough information to lead people under police batons.

Against this background, Putin, who put an end to the first series of insinuations about his health with several cheerful appearances, looks more than respectable. I think many participants in the protest marches are ready to subscribe to most of his message to the Federal Assembly. He again perfectly formulated his answer to the question "why?" — so that Russia becomes a country suitable for a normal, dignified and successful life. True, almost every paragraph of the presidential speech logically followed the question “how?” And remained unanswered. This lack of answers to key questions at both poles is, to put it mildly, uncomfortable. These poles look like two superstructures above the deck of the same ship, which is being carried faster and faster by the current. The deck and hold are full of people who are keenly interested in where, why and how to sail further. There is a lively discussion on the two superstructures, but they don’t really answer. Meanwhile, the steering mechanism is faulty, the propeller is locked, and the sails are uncontrollable. And somewhere ahead the waterfall is making more and more distinct noise. And if a little further upstream there was still confidence that the crew would have time to repair the steering wheel and engine before the waterfall, now, frankly speaking, it is no longer there. And no matter what happens at Lubyanka on December 15, it will not increase.