The Russian nuclear energy industry will set a record for electricity production in 2012, and Rosenergoatom will be able to move from a loss to a net profit zone. But starting next year, nuclear scientists will be faced with the problem of retirement of old RBMK power units (high-power channel reactor) and will be forced to reduce production. The prospects of the concern, which now produces about 17% of all electricity in Russia, depend on the solution to the “RBMK problem”. In the pessimistic scenario, production will remain at a low level in the coming years; with successful development, the concern will be able to reach record levels by 2017 - 223.3 billion kWh per year.

The Rosenergoatom Concern (REA, which owns all of Rosatom's Russian nuclear power plants) expects a record electricity generation in 2012 - 177.1 billion kWh, said the head of the company, Evgeny Romanov, on December 26. This is 2.5% higher than last year. In addition, the energy concern predicts that it will make a profit in 2012, the top manager added, without giving its exact size. Let us recall that in 2011, according to RAS, REA recorded a net loss of 2.91 billion rubles, one of the main reasons for this was the revaluation of the shares of Inter RAO UES, which the concern owned. The only forecast of financial indicators for 2012, which is given by REA, is EBITDA at the level of 80.6 billion rubles. This is 17% lower than a year earlier. Let us note that the concern does not prepare financial statements in accordance with IFRS, and EBITDA is calculated using Rosatom’s internal methodology and reflects management reporting data.

At the same time, next year REA will face a slight drop in output, Mr. Romanov said. As Kommersant already wrote in its issue of November 30, the concern will have to reconsider its plans for the construction of new nuclear power units (“road map”). This is due to technological problems in old RBMK reactors, where the graphite stack, the main structural element of the reactor, begins to deform. In the summer of 2012, because of this, the first unit of the Leningrad Nuclear Power Plant (LNPP) had to be shut down. Similar problems are expected at other RBMK reactors of the “first series,” that is, at the second unit of the Leningrad NPP and at the first two units of the Kursk NPP. Rosatom intends to introduce replacement capacity for these stations at an accelerated pace (LNPP-2 is already under construction, its first unit should be launched in 2014, Kursk NPP-2 is being designed). Already in 2013, the second unit of the Leningrad NPP should be taken out for repairs.

In 2013, REA must choose one of the ways to solve the problem of graphite swelling at RBMK. According to Evgeniy Romanov, there is a “therapeutic” method, which involves operating reactors at reduced power (such experience was used, for example, at the first unit of the Leningrad NPP, which operated at 80% power until it stopped), and a “surgical” method, which requires a radical solution to the problem and carrying out repairs work to correct the geometry of the graphite masonry. For now, REA is planning a fairly wide range of production depending on one scenario or another. Thus, by 2017, under the most optimistic scenario, electricity production at nuclear power plants will amount to more than 223.3 billion kWh, and under the most pessimistic scenario, it will not exceed 186.7 billion kWh.

The final result of the concern's work will largely depend on the pace at which new power units are commissioned. At the same time, Rosatom did not plan new launches of nuclear power plants in Russia for 2013; in 2014, three power units are expected to be commissioned at once - the pilot industrial BN-800 at the Beloyarsk NPP, the third unit of the Rostov NPP and the first unit of the Novovoronezh NPP-2 (replacement capacity for oldest nuclear power plant with VVER type reactors). The new road map agreed upon by Rosatom must still be approved by the government. According to the head of REA, the pace of construction depends on how the RBMK problem is resolved, as well as on the state’s plans for financial support of nuclear energy. Evgeny Romanov added that the concern’s investment program in the coming year will amount to only 215 billion rubles. This means that the concern will reduce investments by 12% - in 2012, REA spent about 245 billion rubles. Budgetary support for the company will remain at the same level and in 2013 will amount to approximately 60 billion rubles.

Vladimir Dzaguto

Peaceful atom has become profitable