Syria: The price is stubborn

Moscow “is not concerned about the fate of the Assad regime,” said Russian President Vladimir Putin at a press conference on December 20. Over and over again, blocking the UN resolution in Syria, Russia missed the opportunity to seriously affect the situation in the country where there is a civil war

Homs streets

On the morning of July 18, in the building of the State Security Bureau in Damascus during a meeting of the security forces there was an explosion. The victims of the attack were the head of the Syrian intelligence, General Hisham Bakhtiyar, Minister of Defense Daud Rajah, his deputy Asef Shaukat, husband of the sister of President Assad-Bushra and assistant vice president General Hassan Turkmani. The Syrian ruling clan did not yet know such losses. The rebels, meanwhile, rejoiced: “It’s for them for blasphemy!”* “I think it makes no sense to travel to Damascus - neither those nor the others will definitely calm down now,” the UN special representative and the League of the Arab states (LAG) in Syria Kofi Annan said at that time. He was right. A month later, it became known: the president’s brother and the commander of the 4th mechanized brigade guarding key state institutions and presidential residences, Maher Assad lost both legs as a result of that terrorist attack. In response, the Syrian Air Force bombed the hospital in Aleppo, overwhelmed by the wounded fighters of the Free Army of Syria (CAS) and civilians - after the bombing of living people, the Militia of Shabiha finished off.

In July-August, a point of no return was finally passed on the Syrian Front. Before that, it was still possible, equally sharing the responsibility of the parties, to put them at the negotiating table. After - it became too late.

And then Vladimir Putin, at whose instructions, Russia over and over again blocks the UN resolution in Syria, and the ships of the Russian Navy with an interval of about once a month arrange demonstrative campaigns to the Syrian

The shores say that Moscow is “not concerned about the fate of the Assad regime”, and Russian interests in Syria are not so great: “We are worried that it will be next ... It is necessary that people agree on how to live on ...”

Further, Vladimir Vladimirovich, will be the same as today - a war. And first of all, people should agree on how to stop it. The wars usually end when one of the parties suffers defeat and, in order to avoid a complete and final collapse, accepts the conditions of the enemy. On December 13, the deputy head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Mikhail Bogdanov, had enough common sense to admit: Assad had little chance of defeating the opposition, but that, perhaps, there will be more chances, it was time to think about the evacuation of Russian citizens ... There was a subtext in this statement: it was time to establish full -fledged contacts with the Syrian opposition, is not too late. But the next day, the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Alexander Lukashevich hastened to “correct” the colleague: the position of Russia in the Syrian dossier has not changed, there can be no military solution to the issue, the last word behind the people of Syria and so on - but Pasaran.

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There is no reason to listen to Russian exhortations that of the sides of the Syrian conflict. In the ruling clan - because the Kremlin is not preoccupied with his fate. The Syrian rebels - because they achieve military success contrary to the Russian veto in the UN

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The problem, however, is that it is too late to count on a serious role in resolving the Syrian conflict for Moscow. It was not too late a year and a half ago, when Damascus begged Moscow to fulfill obligations within the framework of weapons contracts, moreover, with a deferred payment! - assuring her in the ability to maintain control over the situation. When there were no opposition bases in Turkey, and Aleppo lived a peaceful life. When Iran, who provided Assad, “Brother-Alavit”, has not yet intervened in the situation, everything he needed: weapons supply channels, security for key objects, thousands of batteries-batteries. When the bill was killed and wounded did not yet go for tens of thousands. But then Moscow was sure: Damascus would easily cope with the problem itself, without intermediaries, it was not for nothing that they pumped it with weapons and money. Let us recall what the same Lukashevich said in August 2011: “Damascus should be given time to carry out reforms ... Damascus has already taken very significant steps” ...

Now, he has no reason to listen to Russian exhortations of any side of the Syrian conflict. The ruling clan - because in the Kremlin, you see, "are not concerned about the fate of the Assad regime." The Syrian rebels - because they achieve military success contrary to the Russian Veto at the UN and will never forgive Moscow with either the veto itself, and the aircraft and ships with weapons, money, and military equipment for Assad. The Russian position is not too interested in the most likely contender for the post of head of the transition government of Syria, the current vice president of Faruk Ash Sharaa, the only Sunnis in the Alawit elite-he already has the full support of the United States and Turkey. Russia was late. And there is fear - forever.

So what will happen next? Bashar Assad will leave. Or it will leave. The most disciplined parts of the SAS under the pressure of Turkey are reintegrated into the Syrian army, which, together with the peacekeepers of the UN, will begin to disarm the mercenaries and radical-Islamist groups. In Syria, elections with the participation of the now -ruling party of the Baas will be held, which will quite arrange Iran. Of course, all this is not obvious. But it is quite likely.

But our ships will float back. Syria will no longer print their money -know in Russia. Banks VTB and VEB will cease to be counterparties of the Syrian National Bank. And now it is a point.

Photo: Reuters