December 28, 2012, 00:03 / Management

The main driver of wage growth in the past year was the public sector

The main driver of real wage growth in the past year was the public sector. But experts believe that a further increase in salaries for public sector employees will lead to a reduction in employment Mikhail Malykhin D. Grishkin / Vedomosti

Chief economist of FC Otkrytie Vladimir Tikhomirov notes that the main driver of wage growth this year was public sector employees. The wages of civil servants began to grow faster than wages in the economy as a whole, the Ministry of Labor states. Over the first 9 months of 2012, the real wages of healthcare workers increased by 12.1%, education workers - by 16.2%. The ministry recalls that on October 1, the salaries of employees of federal government agencies were indexed by 6%. Similar decisions were made in relation to regional budgetary institutions.

“This year the Chelyabinsk Pipe Rolling Plant did not increase wages. The plant actively implemented a cost control program,” notes a company representative. In rare cases, he says, the wages of individual employees in blue-collar positions in seamless pipe production areas have increased: “The plant has increased the production of pipes for oil workers, and in some areas piecework wages remain.”

According to Rosstat, as of November 1, the average nominal salary in Russia reached 27,607 rubles. Over the ten months of the outgoing year, real wages (taking into account inflation) increased by 8.8%. The growth dynamics turned out to be more than twice as high as in the post-crisis 2011 (3.3%). However, in December, experts from the Ministry of Economic Development revised the macroeconomic forecast: annual growth is now expected at 8% against previous estimates of 9.1% - “taking into account the slowdown in wage growth in the second half of 2012, primarily in such activities as transport and communications , trade, production of electricity, gas and water."

Budget locomotive

This increase in wages is the fruit of a new government strategy: at the beginning of the year, the goal was set to bring the salaries of doctors, paramedical and junior medical personnel, teaching, scientific and social workers, and employees of institutions to the average for the regional economy (and for some professions - to two averages) culture (in total - almost 6 million people). “Doctors and teachers should feel like they are middle class,” said Dmitry Medvedev, summing up the government’s work at the end of November.

According to the Prime Minister, in September the average salary of Russian teachers was 93% (100%, according to him, will be reached by the end of 2012), and that of university teachers - 102% of the average salary in the regional economy. The average salary of teachers in September 2012 increased by 18% compared to September 2011. The greatest growth was noted in Karachay-Cherkessia and Moscow (by 50%), Ryazan and Tyumen regions (by 31%). The salaries of Moscow teachers (by 43%), teachers in the Kaluga region (by 27%), Karachay-Cherkessia (by 26%), and the Perm Territory (by 23%) were higher than the economic average.

To whom - yes, to whom - no

Tikhomirov notes that real wages in the commercial sector of the economy grew slightly or even stagnated. In his opinion, the reluctance to increase personnel costs of Russian companies is due to both real factors - a slight increase in production and prices for raw materials on the world market, and psychological factors - fear of a crisis in the eurozone and instability in the Middle East.

Kamaz representative Oleg Afanasyev told Vedomosti that at the end of the year, his company increased salaries and tariffs by 10%: “The wage intensity of the product is at the maximum level.”

UC Rusal says that employee salaries are indexed annually in accordance with the terms of collective agreements and the industry tariff agreement. In particular, the average salary for the period from the beginning of 2011 to October 2012 increased by 25%, to 39,953 rubles.

We'll have to cut back

In 2012, large companies in Russia increased employee salaries by an average of 5.5%, according to researchers from the global consulting company Hay Group, who surveyed the management of 398 of the largest Russian companies representing 12 major sectors of the economy at the end of the first half of the year. Judging by similar Hay Group research in other countries, over the same period (June 1, 2011 – June 1, 2012), wage growth in the remaining BRIC countries was higher: in Brazil, wages increased by 6.8%, in India by 9.3%, in China – by 9.4%. At the same time, the Russian indicator turned out to be the highest among the G8 countries. The lowest growth in the G8 was recorded in Italy (0.9%), in second place from the bottom of the list is the USA (1.5%), followed by the UK (1.6%), Japan (1.7%), France ( 2%), Germany (2.1%) and Canada (6.8%).

According to Vladimir Gimpelson, director of the Center for Labor Research at the Higher School of Economics, increasing wages in the public sector will play the same role in the labor market as increasing the minimum wage - forcing employers in the commercial sector to raise salaries for employees. Gimpelson believes that employers will have to compensate for the increase in personnel costs by reducing staff. Despite record data on the unemployment rate this year, according to Rosstat, employment in the corporate sector has already decreased by 106,700 people over the 11 months of the year. Sergei Kogogin, general director of Kamaz, recently said in an interview with Vedomosti that if ineffective use of working time is discovered, the company intends to reduce staff. Moreover, after staff optimization, 50% of the wage fund is distributed among the remaining employees.

Tikhomirov from FC Otkrytie says that, given the expected slow GDP growth (by 3.6% in 2013, according to his calculations) and the tight state budget, staff reductions will also have to be made in the public sector.