Crises repeat themselves. Forecast for 2013

Now the big concerns are related to the US debt problems. It is expected that some unpleasant events related to American debt securities may follow in January.

But I think that this very topic is far-fetched. And the most serious problem at the moment is the situation in Germany and the situation in China. What else could be more important?

And if we talk about the crisis as a big process, then we, of course, have not come out of any crisis and, moreover, the stabilization of 2010 has ended, and has already ended a year ago. At the same time, an interesting picture is created when in some regions of the world we see a very acute crisis, while in other regions, for example, in Russia, we see growth, we see some stability in economic indicators.

We see good growth rates in China, although the Chinese economy is slowing down. But, nevertheless, one gets the feeling that there is a crisis in Europe and there are vast areas on the planet where there is no crisis. This is a deceptive picture, of course, because in fact the crisis is global.

And if we consider it as a holistic phenomenon, then it is present everywhere. It’s just that it hasn’t manifested itself everywhere to the same extent, and, in essence, similar processes are developing. For example, in the USA before the crisis we saw a credit boom. This credit boom is generally repeated in a number of countries. Well, for example, in China it is repeated, and in Russia we are also seeing a credit revival.

And, of course, the authorities must worry about how to actually move on to that moment, how to manage later, when the credit revival is already completed, and how to deal with its consequences. During 2011, the world economy moved from the phase of such a revival, which occurred during the crisis, to a phase of new problems.

When, even before the end of the second quantitative easing program in the United States, the Federal Reserve program began to fall, literally a month before the end of the program. That is, the markets were still being fed (at least formally), and, nevertheless, problems had already begun. And then the threat of US default arose. The US default did not occur, and this was followed by a collapse in the markets.

And this year, when there were elections, a new market decline was associated with Obama’s victory. That is, it would seem that everyone was afraid of Romney’s victory, the Republicans’ victory, because it was not clear what they would do, what policy they would pursue. And, moreover, the Republicans are quite tough on the stock market and all transactions there, and more reflect the interests of industrialists. But, nevertheless, the markets again reacted with a fall.

Now we are seeing a new, third quantitative easing program, which, in essence, means that the United States has thrown into action what appears to be at least the last financial reserve. In general, it is interesting that until the moment they did not do this, there was a feeling that perhaps the United States would somehow sort out its economic problems, somehow overcome all the various signs that were accumulating in the economy, achieve growth in the American economy and pull out the global economy out of crisis.

China created the same illusion, but perhaps much more powerful because there was investment in China and greater economic growth. And it seemed that China could pull the world economy.

In general, over the past one hundred and fifty years, the leader of the world economy has changed. Its main leading country is actually a locomotive. In the 1850s, the crisis began and ended in London, and already in the 1870s, the crisis began and ended in the United States. That is, the USA became the locomotive and the heart of the world economy almost precisely due to the huge American market, which was created precisely during that period - back in the 19th century. And the United States has not lost this leadership position, not at all - they have retained it.

China, which tried to seize this leadership, was unable to do so. And as a result, we found ourselves in a situation where the United States did not come out of the crisis, and moreover, it spent large resources, achieving stabilization, but stabilization is coming to an end. China, too, has used up a lot of resources and its economy is slowing.

It must be added to everything that the recession in the European Union has spread to the north, and the so-called “Greek” or “Spanish disease” has now spread to the north. And we see a reduction in industrial orders in Germany and, in fact, the beginning of a contraction of the German economy, which is precisely a sad signal.

In general, the ideas of optimists and analysts were associated with the fact that Germany would somehow grow and pull the European economy out of the crisis. These ideas were never realized. The negative forecast that we actually made, that the German economy would slow down, has just come true. Moreover, a factor in the slowdown in the German economy will be the efforts of the German authorities to expand the scope of austerity policies in Europe.

Right now, austerity has actually hit the entire southern part of the eurozone. And there it led to a very high level of unemployment. In fact, the level of the Great Depression has been exceeded. And as a result, this has a negative impact on Germany simply because, on the one hand, sales markets are reduced, and on the other hand, there is a threat of defaults because national debts in the countries of the southern eurozone are huge.

They turned out, as these debts were dealt with as a problematic phenomenon, to become an even more serious problem simply because the economy shrank. Economies shrank and entire sectors were destroyed.

The construction industry in Greece has been completely destroyed. Today it literally lies in ruins. There is a very low level of activity there. And, of course, as a result we see that revenues to the budgets of these countries, such as Greece, Portugal, and Spain, are declining. And we, in turn, are faced with the fact that this has a bad effect on Germany, on German banks.

France will probably experience these problems more quickly than Germany, that is, it will be more quickly affected by the “Spanish” or “Greek disease”. And as a result, we don’t expect anything good from Europe. However, the European market is precisely the market with which Russia is closely connected. True, the Chinese market is also of great importance.

Over the past two years, we have seen cyclical markets where markets have not been stable. The markets went up and down, and this fall was not only in the stock market, but also in the commodity market. Therefore, Russian companies, raw materials companies, which started 2012 well, with good profits, and yet, at the end of the second quarter, some even ended up with losses, others with a drop in income.

This is the result of the instability of the world market, which, in turn, is ensured by the fact that the economic crisis is intensifying in Europe. It appears in a controlled form in China and, again, in a controlled form in the USA. But nevertheless, the United States is trying to shift the main emphasis to Europe.

And yet, for Russia this instability creates a certain threat.

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