Russia-2050: to catch up and overtake Nigeria

Millennium was able to, now all the eyes are directed on a new milestone in the future - the middle of the 21st century. So, a year ago, HSBC analysts released the World in 2050 report , not so long ago, journalists of the British magazine Economist decided to exercise in futurology . A new study on this topic was prepared by PWC experts, their report is called “World in 2050. Brik and other countries: prospects, problems and opportunities ”(World in 2050. The Brics and Beyond: Prospects, Challenges and Opportunites).

For the first time, PWC prepared such a study in 2006. It covered the 17 largest economies in the world: the countries of the Great Seven (France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Great Britain, the USA and Canada), even Spain, Australia and South Korea, as well as seven leading countries with a developing market economy (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey). Later, the forecast was updated, in 2008 and in 2011. Today, Vietnam, Nigeria, South Africa, Malaysia, Poland, Saudi Arabia and Argentina were also included in today's work.

Several main conclusions of the report.

By 2050, China, the USA and India will become the largest economies in the world; The closest competitors - Brazil, Japan and Russia - will remain far behind. PWC experts suggest that China will overtake the United States (being a leader currently) in 2017. Countries with a developing economy in the next four decades will develop much faster than the countries of the "big seven". The average growth of GDP in purchasing power parity (PPS) indicates that Nigeria will be headed by the list of countries with the fastest growth rate, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Saudi Arabia and South Africa will follow it. Mexico and Indonesia will rise to the top 10 largest economies. Russia will overtake Germany and become the largest European economy. The economies of Russia, Mexico and Indonesia will also surpass in volumes and the UK. Türkiye will overtake Italy, and in the long run Nigeria will take a higher place in the leaders table. Vietnam also has great potential, although it needs a stronger macroeconomic policy to maintain rapid growth in the long run. India, Indonesia and Malaysia also have great growth potential in the Asian region, both due to their own forces and due to the influence of a large Chinese economy. And Poland will continue to overtake its Western European neighbors in the coming decades. Many of the current countries with developed economies will have an extremely low population growth. In Japan and Germany, on average, for the period until 2050, the population will decrease (this, by the way, applies to both Russia and Poland). Nevertheless, even in 2050, the average per capita income will still be much higher in countries with a developed economy than in countries with a developing economy - the current income gap is too large to disappear over the remaining 38 years.

The table below shows changes in the position of world leaders in terms of GDP volume by parity of purchasing power.

20 largest economies in the world

Source: Forecasts based on PWC models for 2030 and 2050

But there are risks that may negate the growth of the developing market. The PWC report indicates several potential sources of macroeconomic and political instability:

high budget deficit in India and Brazil; excessive dependence of the budget on oil and gas revenues in Russia and Nigeria; the growing inequality of income, creating social tension in China and other countries with a rapidly developing economy; macroeconomic and financial instability in Vietnam; the exhaustion of natural resources around the world due to the rapid growth rate of developing countries; Changing global weather conditions.

Bonus. Several vivid forecasts from PWC for this year

In 2013, the world GDP in real terms, according to forecasts, will be 10% higher than the record -free pre -crisis of GDP in 2008, and approximately 40% higher than the level of 2000. In 2013, China, India and Brazil together will bring the world economy an additional $ 1 trillion in nominal terms (this figure corresponds to the annual production of all Switzerland). The contribution to the increase in the global economy of only one China will be $ 788 billion, which corresponds to the annual volume of the Netherlands. In 2013, Australia will bypass Spain and become the 12th largest economy in the world. The United States and China will retain the first and second positions, and the UK will remain the sixth. The governments of the OECD countries will need to attract $ 2.1 trillion of borrowed funds, which is 1.5 times higher than the predicted increase in their GDP in monetary terms in 2013. Despite the fact that, by historical standards, the restoration of the British economy was a modest pace, the results of Great Britain in 2013 may be the best among developed European countries, given the insignificant growth or slowdown in development, which are expected in other large countries of the European Union.