The socio-political stability of Russian regions is declining, states the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation, which completed its latest study in early March. The main topics of the protests at the beginning of 2013 were the sharp increase in utility tariffs and increased taxes for small entrepreneurs. The first topic has already required the Kremlin’s intervention; the second requires a reaction from the Russian government.

The St. Petersburg Politics Foundation, which is participating in the creation of the authoritative “Governor Survival Rating,” together with the Regnum agency published on Monday, March 4, the fifth rating of the socio-political sustainability of Russian regions. The average resistance rate continued to decline in February, the researchers note. In January, it was 6.58 points out of 10 possible (in September 2012, when the rating was published for the first time, the average sustainability score was 7.05). Unrest in the regions this time was caused by a sharp increase in utility tariffs and an increase in insurance contributions to the Pension Fund for small businesses, experts point out, noting that the conflict potential of both topics is far from exhausted.

Analysts predicted an increase in protest activity in the regions in July and September 2012, when previous increases in tariffs for housing and communal services took place, recalls St. Petersburg Politics. However, those forecasts did not come true, and an increase in activity occurred at the beginning of 2013, when neither the federal nor regional authorities expected an increase in tariffs.

Those who opposed the tariff increase most actively were in the Altai Territory, Murmansk, Novosibirsk and Penza regions. The federal authorities were forced to intervene in the situation: during a special meeting with the participation of President Vladimir Putin, responsibility for what happened was assigned to the regional authorities and the Ministry of Regional Development. In the regions, officials responsible for public utilities resigned; in a number of subjects (in particular, in the Murmansk region), tariffs for the population had to be reduced.

Major renovation of houses in Novosibirsk Photo: Alexander Kryazhev / RIA Novosti

Penza authorities, however, have so far limited themselves to initiating a criminal case against the management of one of the management companies for inflating tariffs for housing and communal services. At the same time, the region’s sustainability rating not only did not decrease, but even increased by 0.1 points. Despite a lot of negative events in the housing and communal services sector, the Penza region, as before, is included in the group of the most stable regions - with 8.5 points. The Novosibirsk region, where regional deputies are preparing an appeal to Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev with a request to change the procedure for calculating utility bills for general household needs (because of them, the bills of the population have sharply increased), lost 0.2 points in the ranking, but retained its place in the group of regions with high stability with seven points.

The Altai Republic, whose leadership received a blow from Putin at the communal meeting, did not take any noticeable actions; Governor Alexander Berdnikov only dismissed two high-ranking officials responsible for this area. The region remains in the moderately stable group with 6.5 points, but lost 0.3 points over the month.

An appeal has already been sent to the State Duma from the Altai Territory to adjust the government resolution on new tariffs for housing and communal services. However, the communists managed to hold protests against the new tariffs in all major cities in the region and began collecting signatures for the resignation of Governor Alexander Karlin. Taking into account the mass of other negative events, the region lost 0.3 points in February and remained in the moderately stable group with 6.5 points.

Negative events in connection with the increase in insurance contributions to the Pension Fund for small businesses were noted in several regions. At the same time, problems, as a rule, are found not in regional centers, but in districts. Thus, in the Trans-Baikal Territory, five out of 40 farms in the Kyrinsky district were closed, and entrepreneurs in the Krasnochikoysky district asked the regional legislative assembly to petition the State Duma to reduce insurance contributions to the Pension Fund. In the Altai Republic, entrepreneurs from the regional center of Chemal came to a rally. In the Stavropol Territory, which lost 0.4 points but remained among the regions with average stability, the Commissioner for Entrepreneurs' Rights reported the cessation of activities of almost ten thousand small enterprises due to increased contributions.

Experts increased the ratings of the Magadan Region and Trans-Baikal Territory by 0.4 points, where governors Nikolai Dudov and Ravil Geniatulin resigned at the Kremlin’s initiative. The authors of the rating note that when appointing their successors, the federal center demonstrated a change in approach to the selection of candidates for the posts of acting heads of regions: in the Magadan region, the most popular politician of the region was appointed - the former mayor of Magadan Vladimir Pecheny, and in Transbaikalia - a representative of the opposition, who could be dangerous to the authorities in the gubernatorial elections,” representative of the A Just Russia party Konstantin Ilkovsky. As a result, both regions led the group of regions with average stability - with 6.6 and 6.4 points, respectively.

The anti-leaders in the rating were the Lipetsk and Vladimir regions. The Lipetsk region, after the high-profile murder of city council deputy Mikhail Pakhomov, whose alleged customers were former Deputy Minister of Housing and Communal Services of the Moscow Region Evgeniy Kharitonov and former general director of the Lipetsk SEZ Sergei Krasovsky, immediately lost 0.6 points (more than all regions) and closes the group of moderately stable regions with 6. 2 points. The Vladimir region generally closes the February ranking with 4.2 points. Over the month, the region lost 0.5 points, experts did not find a single positive event in the region, and the list of negative ones is quite long, and is headed by the approaching expiration of the term of office of the permanent governor of the region, Nikolai Vinogradov.

Replacement of communications in Perm Photo: Maxim Kimerling / Kommersant

Experts have prepared unpleasant news for the Perm Territory, Murmansk and Kurgan regions. In February, all of them dropped out of the group of moderately resistant ones and found themselves among regions with weak stability. At the same time, Russian regions have not yet demonstrated any reverse trends.

There were many negative events in the Perm region in February: State Duma deputy Anatoly Lomakin resigned, criminal cases were initiated against officials; finally, a solemn celebration of the 75th anniversary of Usollag (once part of the Gulag system) took place, which unpleasantly surprised the democratic public.

In the Murmansk region, all the most high-profile events in February were caused by a sharp increase in housing and communal services tariffs. Numerous rallies, prosecutorial checks, a scolding of officials by President Vladimir Putin, and the subsequent resignation of Deputy Governor Anatoly Grivnyak reduced the region’s stability rating by 0.4 points.

The Kurgan region lost the same number of points. Here, problems arose among the entourage of Governor Oleg Bogomolov: his first deputy Bukhtoyarov is suspected of receiving a bribe, and his deputy Marina Kalugina is being checked for involvement in theft. Often such activity by law enforcement agencies is a harbinger of the resignation of the governor. However, the main problem of the Kurgan region, as Lenta.ru sources close to the presidential administration have repeatedly explained, is the lack of personnel ready to take the gubernatorial post in this region.

The greatest political activity, judging by the events reflected in the rating, was observed in the Volgograd region in February. The region is traditionally classified as moderately stable; compared to January, its rating even increased by 0.2 points - to 6.5. At the same time, local politicians clearly cannot stand each other: the Rodina party is collecting signatures for the dismissal of Governor Sergei Bozhenov, the Communists are using the same method to achieve the dissolution of the regional Duma, and United Russia is taking similar actions to recall Nikolai Maksyuta, the former governor of the region, from the senators.

Communal service spoils karma