Infrastructural limitations of the brain

"The world makes way for those who know where to go"

R.U. Emerson

It was with this aphorism of Ralph Emerson that Minister of Regional Development Igor Slyunyaev began a recent meeting of his department.

It must be admitted that Russia has once again lost its way. The country does not have a meaningful project for the national-state future, even for the medium term. For a quarter of a century, Russian civilization has been living in a complex of national defeat and deepening depression. And neither the Olympics, nor the Universiade with the World Cup, nor the blatant PR campaigns about them will help us overcome them.

Moreover, if in the next 3-5 years the ruling class does not propose a large-scale project capable of uniting the country and giving a passionate impulse to the people, then Russia simply will not exist as a single state.

Because:

— the erosion of central Russian power over the territory of the country, which occupies most of the Eurasian Heartland according to Mackinder, is already clearly visible today.

— the country has adopted a strategically unpromising and archaic raw materials model of the economy. Disappointing rates of economic growth in 2012, amounting to 3.5% of GDP with an average price of $109 per barrel, against the backdrop of growing capital outflow, demonstrate its exhaustion.

— the scientific and technological potential inherited by Russia from the USSR is disintegrating, the deterioration of the national infrastructure is increasing, and primarily in its transport component.

— with the exception of pipeline transport, there are no tangible investments in infrastructure in the post-Soviet period of Russian history.

— in a number of regions of Siberia and the Far East, the formation and development of a “colony complex” is underway. Primary separatist tendencies are emerging in the Asian part of Russia. Various regions of the Russian Federation are already beginning to focus on external centers of influence. The Far East and Eastern Siberia - to China and Japan, the North Caucasus - to Turkey and the Arab world.

Recently an extended meeting of the Russian government took place, which should rightfully be called historic. Dmitry Medvedev resolutely demanded the 5% vital for the country already in 2013. The ministers of the financial and economic bloc resisted and took responsibility for only 3% of GDP growth. They cited infrastructure limitations as the main reason for the unfeasibility of the government's plans.

Indeed, the speed of cargo movement on Russian Railways in 2012 broke a sad record and amounted to 9.1 km/h. Agree, this is very different from 70 km/h in Europe and 90 km/h in China. But in fact, it demonstrates the scale of our technological lag. At the same time, almost every day there are alarming messages about the breakdown of rolling stock, sometimes with human casualties.

“Today the Trans-Siberian Railway is one of the busiest highways in the world. Its carrying capacity (120 million tons) is practically exhausted,” said Vladimir Yakunin, President of Russian Railways, at the Baikal Economic Forum in September 2012.

Our main wealth is territory - a monopoly, extremely underutilized resource. 17.3 million sq. km of Russia in 9 time zones spread between East Asia and Europe. In the Southeast we have a global factory, in the West there is a consumer market of 800 million people.

Global cargo traffic between East Asia and Europe is growing steadily and amounted to 42 million containers in 2012. Of these, only 50 thousand traveled along our Trans-Siberian Railway, the rest by sea, past Russia. The shipping sector has undergone dramatic modernization over the past 40 years, both in terms of fleet and port infrastructure.

But there are problems here: already today 140-150 ships pass through the Suez Canal per day, its capacity is at its limit. This sea route from Asia to Europe is considered the shortest: 40-45 days. More and more cargo will go around Africa. And this is already 75-80 days, and even with unresolved problems in the Gulf of Aden.

Meanwhile, the time factor in the 21st century becomes key.

There is simply no alternative to the transcontinental Russian route!

A high-speed railway could ensure the country’s transition to a different economic model: from a raw material model to a transit one, for starters.

And then, as everyone knows, along the trade route the growth of all forms and types of industrial production, the emergence of cities and the settlement of people is inevitable. New centers of attraction for capital, labor, goods and services are appearing along the highway. The most important circumstance: conditions for the development of agriculture. Our grain export potential to these regions is 40-50 million tons! But they can only be delivered to eastern ports by rail.

After all, it was not for nothing that Paul Krugman received the Nobel Prize for his work “Spatial Economics” in the crisis year of 2008, so there is a fundamental theoretical basis for such a plan.

Meanwhile, a couple of weeks ago, Doctor of Economic Sciences and member of the board of the Ministry of Regional Development Vladislav Inozemtsev once again “left no stone unturned” in his plan to revive Russia on the basis of a global, national project.

On February 15 in Vedomosti, in his article: “The Word is up to Siberia,” he states: “...today only the market can give a correct understanding of investment directions. The state and its agents are focused on investing in gigantic - and obviously unprofitable - projects ".

Well, such a hoarding, purely accounting approach of refined economists is not new.

It is known that 120 years ago the idea of ​​the Trans-Siberian Railway also had enough enemies.

The construction of the Trans-Siberian Railway was completely unjustified. At the end of the 19th century, only 17.7% of the country's total population lived beyond the Urals: 22.7 million people. Such population density, as well as its social, class and professional composition, did not exactly correspond to the huge expenditures of the state budget. The highway required 1 billion 500 million full gold rubles of 1913. However, Emperor Alexander III decided to build the Trans-Siberian Railway.

And please note that the nationally oriented bourgeoisie of Imperial Russia supported the project! Most of the bonds issued by the government were purchased by merchants and industrialists.

Construction began on May 31, 1891 and continued until October 18, 1916.

Construction required not only material resources, but also unimaginable human efforts. Almost the entire length of the route was laid through deserted areas in impassable taiga, in the most difficult natural and climatic conditions, including permafrost!

Engineers had to solve the most difficult problems: laying long tunnels, crossing giant Siberian rivers, which in those days was considered an insoluble engineering problem.

What did it cost to go around Baikal? It was necessary to blow up rocks, build tunnels, and erect artificial structures in the gorges of mountain rivers flowing into the lake.

And this was at a time when the main tools of labor were an axe, a saw, a shovel, a pick and a wheelbarrow. And despite this, the speed of construction was stunning: 300-400 km of railway track were laid annually.

Total laid: 9288.2 km. This is the longest railway track in the world! The highway passed through 2 parts of the world, 12 regions and 87 cities.

The project, which was “unprofitable” by accounting standards, paid off already in 1941. It paid off entirely by the very existence of the country and its people. The highway worked around the clock for victory.

I further quote Vladislav Inozemtsev: “And what are they offering us? Lay pipes and rails again. Should the Siberians agree to this? I’m convinced that they won’t.”

As a Siberian, I completely agree about pipes: they do not create a belt of economic activity, but a railway is completely different!

Take a look at the highway from space:

The picture shows that life in Russia is concentrated along its main artery.

In his recent Address to the Federal Assembly, Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the topic of the spiritual bonds of the Russian nation.

Who would object! But we cannot do without economic bonds that allow us to use a steel hoop to hold together Russia’s “crumbling barrel.”

Of the 12 thousand km of the future highway from the Pacific to the Atlantic oceans, 9 thousand km are the Russian part. It will connect 25 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, provide from 5.5 to 6.5 million new real jobs, attract international finance and the most advanced technologies!

Mr. Inozemtsev rightly speaks about corruption, which nullifies any state project. To paraphrase a well-known saying, I can only say: “Well, we don’t have another government.” You'll have to work with what you have. All hope is that the international project will be ensured by international control. So that corruption becomes impossible in principle. An inevitable condition and consequence will be a qualitative improvement in state institutions, such as the judicial system, customs, and police.

Finally, if we talk seriously about patriotism and set the task of repatriating capital from offshore companies to Russia, then such an international project will be the main key to solving it.

Our preliminary calculations of the costs of a new highway of those same 9 thousand km determine the amount at 220-250 billion dollars. For a global international project, the amount is quite reasonable.

Of course, it will be necessary to create an international consortium. You can be sure that it will provide a completely new quality of long-term partnership with the European Union, the United States and the countries of the Asia-Pacific Region.

Recently, the Russian government sent regional development programs for revision. The reconstruction of the existing highway, as well as the completion of the BAM, is necessary for the country. But this is not a solution to the problem.

It is urgent to begin developing proposals for the implementation of the international project for the construction of a transcontinental highway - “United Eurasia”.

In the fall of 2016, we will celebrate the 100th anniversary of the opening of through traffic on the Trans-Siberian Railway.

The most opportune moment is to announce the beginning of a new project that will unite the nation and the world.

For the world to make way for us, we must know where we are going. But for this, the ruling class needs to abandon the philosophy of “everything is only here and now.” In a word - to overcome the infrastructural limitations of the brain. But this is the main problem.