Experts from the Center for Problem Analysis and Public Management Design, led by the head of Russian Railways, Vladimir Yakunin, released a sensational conclusion: the officially announced results of the parliamentary elections in December 2011 are unreliable. "United Russia", according to the authors, lost to the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Journalist Stanislav Kucher believes that the issue of dissolving the current Duma has already been resolved.

Believing that the scandalous report of the Center for Problem Analysis was published without the sanction of Vladimir Yakunin is the same as believing that Vladimir Putin did not read the draft “anti-Magnitsky law.” And since Yakunin is not only the namesake, but also a long-time associate of the president, there is every reason to believe that Putin was not very surprised by the appearance of this report. Hence the conclusion: the early formation of a new parliament is a done deal.

In any case, there is reason to fantasize about how fair the elections to the “new Duma” will be and what its composition may turn out to be. We will probably get the answer to the first question in the fall, when elections of regional leaders and parliaments take place.

Roughly speaking, if the authorities do not become impudent in the fall and the election results seem legitimate and fair to the people, this will a priori raise the level of confidence in the early Duma elections.

Now about the possible contingent of the parliament of the new conscription. In any case, the presidential army will do everything to once again gain an obedient majority in the Duma. It is for this purpose that the government returned to the idea of single-mandate seats. Bright charismatics, with the support of the Kremlin, can certainly win in their constituencies and then in the Duma, either join the party in power, or, remaining independent deputies, vote as they should. According to party lists, the authorities will begin to promote not billionaires alien to the working people, but figures representing these very people. Teachers, doctors, workers of Uralvagonzavods.

Most likely, the new Duma will be very reminiscent of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR, where there was a place for an opera singer, an academician, and a milkmaid. Of course, in the eyes of the majority, such a parliament will be more legitimate than the current one. Of course, in this case, the Kremlin will count on the former loyalty of the deputies. And here the Kremlin strategists risk facing a law of unpredictable consequences.

That is, suddenly get a fairly independent parliament. Billionaire deputies are easier to control than doctor deputies, star deputies or worker deputies. The first one has something to lose. They have something to threaten. It may turn out to be unexpectedly difficult to buy the “People’s” Duma in bulk. A poor but caring Russian in the role of the people's representative is a dangerous political subject. Let me remind you that fair elections of the Supreme Council were also part of Gorbachev’s plan to renew the country and save the face of the authorities. In short, the new Duma may not so much save the regime as bring forward its next crisis.

“The New Duma may not so much save the regime as bring forward its next crisis”