Translated material
North Korea: what will happen on April 10?
In the coming days, the crisis around the DPRK will apparently enter a new phase: it looks very likely that Pyongyang is preparing to launch a new type of ballistic missile to proudly show Washington its nuclear first strike capabilities. As the Americans recorded from space, certain objects have already been delivered by train to the northeastern coast of the country. South Korea believes that these are most likely one or more medium-range missiles, codenamed "Musudan", with a range of 3-4 thousand km. They cover the whole of Japan and could, in theory, carry a warhead to US bases on the Pacific resort island of Guam, where, in addition to beautiful beaches, duty-free shops and numerous tourist hotels, there are B-52 strategic bombers and a nuclear submarine mooring.
There is also a possibility that the KN-08 missile, which is the most worrying for the Americans, has been delivered to the northeast of the DPRK. According to experts, it can have a range of 6 to 10 thousand kilometers - that is, it seems to reach the main territory of the United States. The KN-08 was previously shown at a parade in Pyongyang: some skeptics claimed that at that time it was nothing more than a dummy.
Neither it nor Musudan have ever been launched before. Their real capabilities are unknown. However, both of these missiles have an unpleasant feature - they are mobile and therefore less vulnerable. Washington and Tokyo admit that they will not be able to accurately determine the area of their possible launch.
Seoul reported that at least two such missiles have already been installed on mobile installations in the northeast of the DPRK and have begun to move covertly. It seems that their subsequent location has not yet been established.
Let us recall that a week ago Pyongyang very effectively announced that it had adopted a plan to prepare for a nuclear strike on the United States and American bases in the region. Then the DPRK shouted that it was withdrawing from the 1953 armistice agreement with the Americans and South Koreans, returning to a “state of war” and would build its relations with Seoul and Washington “according to the laws of war.” Next step: The North Koreans said they had officially informed the United States of their ability to launch a nuclear strike on American soil. Finally, on Friday they invited all foreign embassies in Pyongyang to consider evacuating. Because, they say, a war will soon begin, and the enemies will begin to launch air strikes on the capital of the DPRK. So far, only the Brazilians have wavered - they said that they could take their ambassador to the city on the border with China. Everyone else, including Russia and China, does not seem to be planning to leave Pyongyang for now. The Swiss Embassy, which represents US interests, is also located there.
It needs to be clarified: Pyongyang’s statements, of course, are filled with sometimes frightening, sometimes irritating, and sometimes almost humorous chatter, terrible oaths and continuous howls about their readiness to “mercilessly bring down a sea of fire” on the American imperialists and their Seoul puppets. However, experts admit that this noise stream often contains both rational meaning and very specific signals.
Therefore, it seems that the DPRK must take some new steps in the controlled escalation of the conflict. And within the framework of this logic, the launch of a new type of missile towards American bases on beach Guam would be very useful.
After this, it would be possible to set an intermediate point in the current noise campaign. They say the Americans were afraid of our nuclear first strike capabilities and retreated. And we thereby thwarted the insidious plans of the overseas aggressor, a new great victory was won! And right on the eve of the Day of the Sun - the birthday of the founder of the DPRK and the ruling dynasty there, Generalissimo Kim Il Sung, celebrated on April 15.
His grandson, the current ruler of the country, 30-year-old Kim Jong-un, really needs such an imitation of a military victory. The DPRK lived for several months in a state of continuous exercises, air raids, and multi-day evacuations to bomb shelters. There they shout every day from all the loudspeakers: the question is not whether the war will start, but when it will start. The spectacular conclusion of the campaign of general mobilization would reveal the young leader to the people as an undisputed triumph, an iron commander before whom treacherous enemies tremble.
And these same enemies, by the way, are now slowly pushing Pyongyang towards just such a more or less calming end to the current stage of tension: Washington and Seoul have made it clear that the US-South Korean military exercises being held until the end of April will now take place more quietly, without much publicity and demonstrative flights of strategic bombers. In order not to particularly disturb the comrades in the North and give them the opportunity to stop with the current threats.
The only problem is that Pyongyang can create an intermediate effective point not only by launching a missile towards Guam. And, for example, he decides to shoot a little in the hope that the enemies will swallow it. This has already happened: in 2010, for example, the South Korean corvette Cheonan was sunk - Seoul claimed that it was torpedoed by a Northern submarine, but did nothing in response. Then that same year, North Korean artillery struck a South Korean island, killing people. Seoul entered into a firefight, but did not expand the conflict. Pyongyang may well be left with the impression that it is dealing with weaklings whose main concern is lest a military clash lead to a major drop in stock prices on the Seoul Stock Exchange.
However, after the humiliations of 2010, it seems that the South is now determined to fight back harshly. And the desire to shoot a little can come back to haunt you very much. By the way, Pyongyang informed foreign embassies in the DPRK that it could not guarantee their safety after April 10. I wonder what will happen next Wednesday?