Putin promised, but did not perform. Who is to blame?

Photo: Artem Korotaev / ITAR-TASS

On May 7, Dmitry Medvedev will go to the carpet to Vladimir Putin . The meeting will be devoted to the implementation of eleven presidential decrees, which the head of state signed exactly a year ago. The government was instructed to fulfill 80% of the presidential assignments in 2012-2013. But, according to Deputy Prime Minister Vladislav Surkov, the government in the Russian Federation performed about 70% of them. At today's meeting with the deputy prime ministers, Dmitry Medvedev called on his colleagues not to slow down when fulfilling the presidential decrees, but he noted, "with an understanding of the situation that really developed."

However, the experts surveyed by Slon are confident that most decrees were not worked out or calculated from the very beginning, and some analysts are generally sure that Putin specially gave the White House impossible instructions so that there was a reason to resign the prime minister at any convenient moment for him.

	Evgeny Gontmamer , I think a member of the board of the Institute of Modern Development , when in 2012 these decrees were prepared, it was not assumed that this would become some kind of attack against the government. But all these decrees were clearly political in nature. They were signed on the day of Putin’s inauguration, and he wanted to show that he has a program, despite the fact that many reproached him for the opposite. In addition, in the preparation of these decrees on May 7, as far as I know, there was no real agreement with the government. It was in many ways the initiative of the political bloc of the presidential administration. And in the end, rather random things appeared in the decrees. Winning only at first glance. But there really was no study or financial and economic validity in these decrees. Therefore, already now, when the time comes to summarize the first results on some points, the idea arises that the government was a little substituted. Although, perhaps, a year ago, such a task was not set. On the other hand, it is impossible to say that someone alone was to blame for the failure to fulfill the decrees-the author or executor of these decrees. Since, firstly, the deadlines were quite long according to many decree-2018, 2020 and so on. Secondly, in these decrees there are points that are practically impossible from the point of view of financial support and in meaning. For example, one of them refers to an increase in the birth rate by one woman. This criterion, I think, should not be mentioned in the decrees at all. But, on the other hand, that some instructions were not fulfilled, there are guilt of the government. For example, Putin during a “direct line” directly said that he was never presented a pension formula, although this could be done. But the government, due to its inorganization and due to the lack of professionalism on many points, did not do this. As a result, on May 7, some ministers who are responsible for the social block, but not Dmitry Medvedev, can be fired, since the new course of the government is still not talking about.
	Igor Nikolaev , Director of the Department of Strategic Analysis "FBK" that not all instructions of the president were executed on time, there are guilt of both Medvedev and Putin. Because, of course, the order is carried out or not - depends on who puts these instructions. If they are unrealistic, then no matter how good the performer is, it all does not depend on him. The one who formulated these tasks is also to blame. And the balance between the non -scheduled and completed instructions will change for the worse, especially when the achievements of targets will be analyzed. For example, there is a task to create and modernize 25 million jobs, raise labor productivity by 1.5 times and increase the share of high -tech industries. I think that none of these indicators will be fulfilled. The reason is that all these tasks were absolutely not calculated. As, for example, it is impossible to create 25 million highly qualified jobs when we do not even determine what a highly qualified workplace is, how many of them are now and how many are created annually. This is a completely unprecedented and unreasonable figure. And so with everything. For example, the task is set to increase labor productivity by 1.5 times, that is, by 7% annually. But on the other hand, there is a forecast that GDP will grow by 4% per year. But this cannot be. It is impossible for labor productivity to grow by 7% per year, and GDP - by 4%. Moreover, the number of able -bodied population in Russia, according to forecasts, will remain at the same level. And the list of such ungracrated examples can be continued. As a result, now we can conclude that the overwhelming number of economic indicators will not be achieved.
	Alexey Makarkin , From the very beginning, the vice-president of the Center for Political Technology Foundation was clear that these decrees were impossible. Just the government that Medvedev got after he left the Kremlin was, like United Russia, a poisoned gift. So the Medvedev government from the very beginning was put into a disadvantage. And this was done both for Medvedev’s resignation at any time, and in order to raise the Kremlin, to get it out of the blow. As a result, only the Kremlin is positioned as a force that takes care of ordinary citizens, and the main blow falls on the government. If Medvedev tried to find a “magic wand”, then, probably, he was able to fulfill these decrees. But Medvedev is still not a wizard. Moreover, in fact, the president, having issued these decrees before the formation of the government, in fact, put the White House before the fact. Thus, Putin chose the role of a folk defender and demanding head of state, who seriously asks from officials. And accordingly, he issues very popular decrees, and now he is trying to understand why they are not fulfilled, what was programmed in advance. Although technically it was simply impossible to fulfill them. Many experts converge this. But in our system the word “impossible” is not pronounced in relation to the presidential decrees. Therefore, officials begin to maneuver, reporting on the percentage of executed initiatives. As a result, several ministers were reprimanded, and the Minister of Regional Development threw a statement on the table, and he was immediately satisfied. It is possible that even now everything will develop according to the same scenario. The only thing that is not yet clear is the consequences. Will new penalties follow the upcoming meeting, for example, for the fact that pension reform was not prepared, or not? Although the same pension reform is such an unpopular topic that the government wants to delay its development as much as possible, and the president is on the contrary, to bring the beginning of the reform closer, so that he would later make all responsibility to the cabinet for anti -people's measures. As a result, even if the government does not delay the implementation of any decisions, all negative consequences will still be dumped on it.
	Evgeny Mingchenko , Political scientist Putin himself said that in these May decrees he set an inflated bar. And many of his proposals for the year ago were not only impossible, but rather difficult to fulfill. It is clear that these decrees were prepared situationally when it was necessary to extinguish the protest, including with the help of social promises. Therefore, real difficulties with their implementation will be, regardless of what the government will be. Although the president and business really have complaints against the government, but so far, I think, the president does not need to resign the government today. Therefore, I am not waiting for some big fork to the government.