Resignation by aggregate

The dismissal of Vladislav Surkov became the main political event of the week

The dismissal of Vladislav Surkov* from the post of Deputy Prime Minister and the head of the government apparatus became the main political event of the past week. What or someone forced the once omnipotent Kremlin political strategist to complete his almost 14-year career in the highest authorities-found the New Times

For two presidential terms of Vladimir Putin Vladislav Surkov was his right hand in all domestic political affairs

“Surkov felt absolutely out of place and spoke in an unusual manner. He is a man of an extraordinary mind, educated, very creative and speaks, as a rule, brightly, incendiary, impressive, but here he spoke uncertainly, justified and looked quite a pity. I think he did not want to feel humiliated by the little bureaucracy, who was reported and scolded, ”-so sociologist Olga Krystanovskaya described the impression of the performance of the then Deputy Prime Minister and the head of the government apparatus of Vladislav Surkov at a meeting in the Kremlin on May 7, which was discussed about the execution of Putin's inauguration decrees, signed by him a year earlier. The work of the government Vladimir Putin harshly criticized, and Surkov turned out to be the only one who tried to object to him.

In less than a day, on the morning of May 8, the president signed a decree on the dismissal of Surkov from their posts on his own free will.

In the official explanation of the unexpected resignation, voiced by the press secretary of the President Dmitry Peskov (“This is due to the topic of the implementation of presidential decrees”), only commentators close to power were believed. “I completely share an official assessment: the reason for the resignation is the quality and scope of the presidential decrees,” Dmitry Orlov, a member of the Supreme Council of United Russia, said The New Times, a member of the Higher Council of Political and Economic Communications. “The instructions were fulfilled by only 73 %, according to the assurances of the government itself, but it is clear that the real execution was even lower.”

The rest of the experts began to competently compete in building their own versions-from banal-criminal to sublime-philosophical. The former Deputy Prime Minister himself kept silent about the motives of leaving, promising to talk about them later, "when it would be appropriate." But now it is obvious that it is impossible to talk about any one reason: the decision of Surkov was influenced by a combination of a number of factors.

For what is in the answer

The version that the reason for the resignation was the problems in the supervised Surkoy fund “Skolkovo” is the most obvious-if only because the Deputy Prime Minister was dismissed the day after the publication of the sensational article by Vladimir Markin. ** The representative of the Investigative Committee in a very frivolous manner, although without naming names, scolded Surkov for the fact that, acting on May 1 at the London school Economics, Deputy Prime Minister criticized the SK for excesses in the Skolkovo case. Many regarded the courage of Markin as confirmation that the compromising evidence on Surkov is already lies on the table with Putin.

True, Surkov himself said (and Prime Minister Natalya Timakova officially confirmed) that he wrote an application for care on April 26. But for some reason they didn’t prepare a full-fledged replacement in the White House: it was first announced that the deputy prime minister of Surkov was moving to Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, and then the acting head of the apparatus was appointed first deputy Surkov Sergey Prikhodko, whom the sources of The New Times in the White House are resolutely important in the structure of the authorities decisively Refused. And this fact rather confirms that the decision to resign Surkov was made by Putin quite spontaneously and, moreover, in violation of the established procedure. After all, according to Art. 83 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation and Art. 9 of the Law “On the Government”, the president dismisses the deputy prime ministers “on the proposal of the Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation”. However, the informed source of The New Times in the government apparatus claims that Surkov sent his statement directly to Putin, and only “talked” with Medvedev twice. Former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov confirmed The New Times that "formally it is necessary for the prime minister to envy a resignation statement or a decree on release." But in this case, it seems that this is if it was done, it is already retroactively.

"

The former Deputy Prime Minister himself kept silent about the motives of leaving, promising to tell about them later, "when it will be appropriate"

"

There is, however, the version explaining these inconsistencies. According to the government source of The New Times, the statement seemed to be written on April 26 (by the way, this is not the first, as they say, Surkov’s statement with a request to let him go into the will), but he was not given the go, and after the article “Markin’s nerves were surrendered”. Although such an explanation seems unconvincing to some experts. “Surkov is a quick -tempered and vindictive person, he can really experience negative emotions,” confirms Dmitry Orlov. “But he will show them only when he tells him to make this sober calculation when he made some serious decision in advance.” I think that, speaking in London - in the frank,

Aggressive, unusual style for the Russian elite - he knew that he had to leave. "

Experts also do not have a common opinion on the rumors that Surkov personally authorized the payment of $ 750 thousand. The opposition deputy of the State Duma Ilya Ponomarev (on this fact, a criminal case was opened against the vice president of the Skolkovo Foundation Alexei Beltyukov) and even, possibly, financed other well-known oppositions-Gennady and Dmitry Gudkov. The sociologist Krystanov’s connection of Ponomarev and Surkov confirms - “they went to America together on Skolkovo affairs. The general director of the Center for Political Technology, Igor Bunin, on the contrary, believes that information about Surkov’s involvement in Ponomarev’s fees is “untruth”. And Dmitry Orlov recalls that the Skolkovsky curator has long been sympathetic to the protest movement. “There is a lot of evidence that Surkov tried to establish a system of relations with the protest movement. It is unlikely that anyone will be able to prove that he participated in the financing of protests and Ponomarev personally-Surkov is a very experienced player, ”the political scientist argues. “But the fact that he sympathized with the protest movement was located to him is obvious.” If we recall that it was Vladislav Surkov who, when he was in the presidential administration, created and gave a full carte blanche of the Prochrevsky movements “our” and “Rumol”, sharpened to fight the democratic opposition, the version that Surkov de helped the protest movement seems completely incredible.

The split of the elites

The version sounds much more believable, according to which Surkov is only the first victim of the struggle of two power clans, conditionally called security forces and civilians. The “Skolkovo” itself, and Markin’s performance, went beyond the scope of all hardware decency, became visible manifestations of this confrontation. It was regarded by observers as an extremely causing form-a spokeswoman, even if the main power department of the country waved to the deputy prime minister: a thing in the conditions of the vertical of power is absolutely incredible! - And in terms of content - no wonder the sources in the government described the article as a “political denunciation”. And when the Echo of Moscow radio station with reference to the “source familiar with the situation” said that Surkov allegedly suggested Putin “instead of Skolkovo to pay attention to Rosneft, those who saw the resignation of the“ hand of the Chekists ”disappeared: it was clear that such a collision on the main property of the security clan could not remain impunity.

The theory of the theory of Elit Olga Krystanovskaya with such an assessment generally agrees. “This resignation is the result of the split of the elites, which was outlined during the presidency of Medvedev,” she explains. - Part of the elite relied on the second term of Medvedev and believed that this would be the best way for Russia. I don’t think that Putin considers such people to be traitors, but he clearly feels discomfort when working with them, understands that these people are not devoted to him. ” According to her, in the last year, Surkov was “systematically pushed”: “Putin’s team does not want to work with people who cannot be relying on, and Surkov was attributed to such.”

The opinion that the war of clans played an important role in the resignation of Surkov is shared by political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin. “Now there is an attack on conditional liberals - people with common sense, who understand that from time to time it is necessary to adjust the selected path so as not to come to the disaster,” he believes. “Such people are removed or led to a political periphery so that they do not have the opportunity to intercept power.” Therefore, according to Oreshkin, "the elimination of Surkov is a signal to Prokhorov, Shuvalov, Chubais, children from the Voloshin team - to all who built the existing political model."

“In my opinion, this version is insolvent,” Dmitry Orlov does not agree with his colleagues. - Why Surkov? He is not a liberal and was never a symbol of liberalism - there are other symbols, for example, the same Dvorkovich. ” “There are no clans war,” Igor Bunin echoes him. “The security forces cannot do anything on their own without the highest order of President Putin.” But in these refutations, oddly enough, indirect confirmation is also visible. After all, the security forces can take an attack on the “conditional liberals” on the orders of Putin, and they actually already engaged in Arkady Dvorkovich, as evidenced by at least criminal cases against Ahmed Bilalov, which is included in the immediate environment of Deputy Prime Minister Dvorkovich.

Surkov’s bet for a second term of President Medvedev was erroneous. And with Prime Minister Medvedev, Surkov worked for less than a year and a half

Stranger

Surkov’s retired and another, personal, component. When at the end of 2011 he moved from the Kremlin to the White House, some commentators said that the new position was not fully consistent with the abilities and inclinations of the chief Kremlin political technologist. And dissatisfaction with the work could be a good reason for the decision to care for "on its own."

“I think that Surkov was tired because he was not able to do the work that he was prescribed,” says ex-prime minister Kasyanov. “This is the work of a systemic person, and Surkov is not a systemic person - he is a creative intrigue who gives rise to different thoughts about whom to deceive.”

“Naturally, he felt better in the presidential administration,” agrees Igor Bunin. - He was a lord, could deal with everyone. And the government is a slightly different structure. I don’t think he was very comfortable. ” “His transition to the White House was a decrease, especially in a situation where Medvedev and his team lose influence,” adds Olga Krystanovskaya. “This happens with all the people who make the wrong political choice: first they are pushed to the periphery, and then they are fired.”

The deputy prime minister of self-confidence and friction with colleagues in the White House did not add. “The team of the Surkov government was an alien element,” says Dmitry Orlov. - If Natalya Timakov and Arkady Dvorkovich are a meaningful unity, then the Surkov was an external person. The remnants of conflict in relations with him remained since the time when he was the deputy head of the administration and conflict with these people, especially with Natalia Timakova (press secretary of Medvedev). ” We are talking about the period when the president was Dmitry Medvedev, and the remaining Surkov was perceived by many as Putin’s man, who was set to “look” behind Medvedev’s personnel.

“Putin’s team does not want to work with people who cannot be relying on, and Surkov was attributed to such

"

At the same time, the relations of Surkov with faithful Putin, and previously non -binding, have recently become even more tense. According to the sources of The New Times in the Kremlin and the White House, it was especially difficult for Surkov to communicate with the head of the Kremlin administration Sergey Ivanov and his first deputy Vyacheslav Volodin. As a source in the White House said on the terms of anonymity on the terms of anonymity, on April 29, Surkov and Volodin even had a natural quarrel, told The New Times. During a conversation on increased colors, Volodin advocated a “strong hand” policy, referring to the 60 percent support of this idea in sociological surveys. And Surkov seemed to object and spoke out in the spirit that if he asked the population, whether it was worth hanging upside down, then all 80 %will support this measure. "And what, Glory, will we hang?" -Vice Prime Minister was excited.

Finally, Prime Minister Medvedev, who, as some interlocutors of The New Times, rarely stands up for his subordinates, was clearly not facilitated by the spiritual comfort of Surkov, and thereby fearing Putin and thereby reduce his chances of returning to the Kremlin (and in this prospect the former president, according to his environment, still sincerely believes). Actually, this is also seen in the current scandal around Skolkovo: although the prime minister, who considers this project one of his main achievements, has no less reason to protect him from attacks, Medvedev, unlike his now former deputy, is stubbornly silent. So the recognition of one of the former subordinates of Surkov, that he began to resign since December last year, looks very believable.

The game is ahead

Finally, another variation on the topic “himself left”: the Deputy Prime Minister simply decided to “jump off” in time, voluntarily leaving the White House before its inhabitants begin to evict forcibly.

“The attack was not against Surkov, but against Medvedev,” Igor Bunin believes. - There is a zeroing personally Medvedev and his government: all the initiatives of his presidency are canceled and emasculated. The government from Moscow did not leave, the humanization of prisons and the investigative apparatus is not visible, the victory in the war with Georgia was not the victory of Medvedev, they will soon even return the opportunity to drink a little at the wheel. ” The political scientist considers the reason for this “zeroing” the incorrect understanding by the current prime minister of the current situation: “After the castling, Medvedev decided that he claimed second place in tandem, but Putin does not need this at all. He needs Medvedev in order to solve some problems: to carry out a pension reform and make the prime minister a scapegoat. ”

“Surkov simply felt that if he did not leave of his own free will, then tomorrow this will not happen on his own,” says Marat Gelman, who once worked with Surkov. “Vyacheslav Surkov is an experienced person - he felt this in time, because entire clients of Surkov and Medvedev will break out now.”

True, Olga Krystanovskaya believes that after the Autumn castle-2011, the president of the younger partner will not offend: “Putin is decent in personal relations, and he is gratitude to Medvedev, who strictly observed their agreements. Personally against Medvedev, Putin will never arrange persecution. ”

But Vladislav Surkov is not easier from this. Once, at the very beginning of his state career, he said in an interview: “I perceive the wish as a military order. And in this sense, I am much better than a person who perceives the order as a wish. " So it is not so important whether the idea of ​​the need for his resignation by someone’s clearly formulated wishes or a foggy hint was that he, the main thing is that he seemed to take it again as an order.

Photos: Reuters, Alexander Miridonov/Kommersant