Last week, the Accounts Chamber admitted: for the first time in recent years, high oil prices do not guarantee budget stability. Forecasts for the Russian economy are getting worse day by day

Alexander Auzan, Dean of the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University, member of the Economic Council under the President of the Russian Federation
Photo: Maxim Kimerling, Kommersant

While the government is looking for a way out, analysts claim that we have already plunged into a second wave of the crisis, which will be much more painful than the previous one. Is this so, Ogonyok asked Alexander Auzan, dean of the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University, member of the Economic Council under the President of the Russian Federation

— The Ministry of Economic Development warned: if urgent measures are not taken, Russia will slide into recession in the fall. Are we really on the verge of upheaval?

“You see, if the whole world is seriously ill - with something like the recurrent flu - it is strange to think that misfortunes will pass us by. In 2008, after the “seven fat years,” the world and we, together with it, entered a new period of economic dynamics—negative. It lasts 5 years and will last even longer. After the blow of 2008-2009, when economists came to their senses, they realized that it was not a cyclical crisis, something much more serious had been damaged, the conditions themselves had changed. Ordinary citizens, by the way, also understand this well. Recently in Spain they celebrated the second anniversary of the “silent people” movement: people simply take to the streets with the silent question “Isn’t it clear that everything doesn’t work?” A person can be evicted from an apartment because he can’t pay for it, but he has no way to get more. The previous gears that set the entire economy in motion have slipped off, so today they are barely reviving it before it falls on its side again. Where this came from is more or less clear. The world has been developing for quite a long time on globalization, cross-cutting projects and dependence on each other. But with such organic coherence, as it turned out, it is impossible to live in conditions where parts of one system fight against each other. And this is inevitable if we are talking about countries. The world factory China and the global financial and innovation center of the United States, for example, are constantly at odds at the economic level, and this means about the same as if the heart and liver were constantly setting conditions on each other. The person who receives such organs will feel very bad. This is what happens to us: without thinking, we gathered into one organism and now we feel very bad.

- Do you have any idea what to do about this?

— In principle, two options are possible: come up with more complex mechanisms of interaction (which, of course, is very difficult) or, conversely, scatter and set up special quarantine blocks in their regions. While they are trying to try both at the same time. The G20, which is meeting in Russia this year, is thinking something about interaction, and individual countries are putting together regional groupings wherever they can. Our Customs Union, by the way, is also a consequence of this trend. For how many years there was empty talk about its creation and suddenly such progress. Do you think Russia is a political success? No, the neighbors were just concerned about their economic security. Countries are coming together because the message is clear: integrate with anyone or there will be no help.

— You are talking about external factors that affect our economy. But Russia always has its share of internal troubles: lack of investment attractiveness, poor business climate...

— So far the crisis has not affected the masses of Russian citizens, as, for example, in Southern Europe, where unemployment is rampant. We have little to do with this; the nature of the labor market has an impact. However, the overall poor environment has already affected the country's economic growth. It is important to understand what the decline in Russia’s economic growth, as the Ministry of Economic Development said, from 3.6 percent per year to 2.4, means for the common person. Generally speaking, no one has proven that you need to have high growth rates. There are countries where these rates are very low, at the level of 2-3 percent, and yet everything is more or less in order: for example, Germany and the Scandinavian countries. The point, however, is that such “slowness” is only permissible for those who have very reliable mechanisms for distributing public goods and a small gap in the incomes of rich and poor. Only in this case, even with low economic growth, people at the lower levels of the social hierarchy get something. For the same reasons, Russia cannot fall below 4 percent: otherwise the population will not get anything from the growth and everyone will immediately feel a deterioration in their standard of living. If you look at our successful neighbor, China, it requires growth of 6 percent and no lower. Developing countries are similar to cyclists: at high speeds they are fine, but at low speeds there is a high risk of falling into a ditch. At the very least, cause social discontent.

“To avoid discontent, the government has loaded the budget with social obligations, which are now dragging the economy down and in a roundabout way leading to the same problems. Vicious circle?

— Russia softened the blow of the 2008-2009 crisis for the population in a special way, creating higher guarantees for pensioners and public sector employees. This, as we now see, turned out to be a successful political decision. However, the problem of where to get the money from has not yet been resolved. In fact, by flooding the crisis with social payments, we made an important fact invisible to the mass of the population - that crisis hit Russia harder than any other BRICS country. Developed countries are distinguished not by the fact that their economies are constantly on the rise, but by the fact that they do not sink deeply. Unfortunately, we are sinking very deeply. That time they fell just like Ukraine, which, frankly speaking, was going through hard times. Since the rules of the game in Russia are unclear even in calm periods, during a crisis economic players try to stay away from us—hence the fall. Therefore, since the era of instability and “thinness” has arrived, we have very few resources for growth.

— The government has developed new directions for tax policy until 2016; it is possible that small and medium-sized businesses will be asked to pay for the crisis. Does he still have anything to take?

— We need to maintain a social level, so they will take it wherever possible. However, in addition to the usual retreat into the shadows, business has a new loophole - moving within the borders of the Customs Union. It is no longer possible to significantly increase the tax burden on Russian business.

Therefore, most likely, in my opinion, the tax burden on citizens will increase. Luxury has already been taken up, and in its current form, the tax on expensive cars is quite rational: this is not an attempt to take something away from a successful person, but an attempt to hint to him that investing in the economy is preferable to buying himself a new Bentley. The increase in the tax burden on the middle class, which is worth waiting for, is more difficult for me, as an economist and a representative of this class, to welcome. And yet, not everything is so bad here. Practice shows that people who are forced to pay more pay more attention to where their money goes. Responsibility increases, behavior changes. We analyzed how the level of tax burden affects the economic dynamics of countries. And we found out that sometimes high taxes are accompanied by good dynamics, for example in Sweden. The point is not in the quantity of taxes, but in their quality. We still collect a lot today: already in 2011 we reached the average European level - 40 percent of the income of every Russian goes to the budget (UST, VAT, tobacco, alcohol, gasoline and many other excise taxes and taxes make up this decent amount). However, most of these fees are indirect, and citizens are not even aware that they, and not the gas or oil pipeline, fill the budget. If tax increases do force Russians to calculate how much they give to the state, it will be a big surprise on a national scale. And perhaps with far-reaching consequences.

— Do you believe that economic turmoil will make citizens more responsible and force them to think strategically?

- It is good to. You see, it’s summer outside our window, but winter has come in the economy. It differs from natural life in that its duration is entirely determined by the moods of people - both elites and ordinary citizens. There is no vision of the future yet, but for it to arise, those who are ready to peer into the distance must appear. The huge Russian problem is that our elites are afraid of the future. They prefer to say: let's not open this door, in case there is something terrible behind it. This is a normal strategy for fat years, but it is a completely bad strategy for hungry years, when the “terrible” itself is about to break in on you. You need to look around and understand what is happening. Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia's minister of petroleum, has recently been a regular at the bioeconomy conference. When asked why a country that is awash in oil needs such an economy, he replied: “The Stone Age did not end because all the stones ran out.” Very witty. The world we will enter after the crisis will be completely different from today, if only because until we change, the crisis will not pass. And we need to think now how to comply with it. Having participated in councils and commissions for many years where the country's economic policy was discussed and debated, I came to the firm conviction that the main investment is an investment in human capital. It is not banks, but universities that produce values and behavioral attitudes - at the same time as professional competencies. The country's financial institutions are preparing for possible cold weather. And spring should begin in universities. Therefore, the university now seems to me more important for the future of the country than even the Central Bank. It is important not to miss spring.

Interviewed by Olga Filina

"Winter has come to the economy"