Islamic Republic of Dagestan

In the North Caucasus, especially in the territories of Dagestan, Chechnya and Ingushetia, there is a permanent, almost open war between religious extremists and secular authorities. The goal is not hidden: separation from Russia and the creation of an Islamic (Sharia) state in these territories. Call it what you want: Emirate, Caliphate. This is the maximum program. And the “minimum” program: if secession doesn’t work out, then at least Sharia. And it’s a no brainer that this will never happen. Russia will never allow it within the borders of its jurisdiction (and no country will allow it). And it will not allow it for a very simple reason: it is physically impossible for two state forms of government to coexist within one country.

Plus, today in Russia, nationalist groups are stronger and more active than ever, at different levels, including at the very top, who want to see Russia as a mono-national country, in the manner of Germany and Great Britain. In short, the real prospect is more clearly visible than ever.

If you add up all the empirical patterns, historical memory and all the stereotypes that excite the imagination regarding these three republics, then you can get the following oil painting: of all the republics that form the Russian Federation, these three are the most problematic and difficult to govern by state administration. They say about them: no matter how much you feed the wolf, he keeps looking into the forest. In these three republics, “people are as free as eagles,” and the concept of “freedom” is elevated to the rank of absolute. And as a result, they have difficulty recognizing any state authority over themselves. Experts associate this state of affairs with the times when empires that were merciless to the mountaineers, one after another, rampaged through the Caucasus: Persian, Arab, Tatar-Mongol, Ottoman. Especially Arab and Tatar-Mongolian. It was when daughters and sisters were taken to the occupation garrisons for comfort and did not return, when boys were forcibly taken into the imperial army and into its most deadly flank, when tax collectors for arrears dragged out handfuls of grain and slaughtered a child in front of the parents, the Caucasians with all their the fibers of the soul “loved” freedom. It was precisely this fate of the Caucasus, which few people in the world had to endure, that predetermined its “tremendous” attitude towards freedom. If the mountain people had not learned to “extract” and value freedom, they would not have survived. But, fortunately, those days have long since sunk into oblivion.

There are natural hypotheses regarding how events will develop if the North Caucasian republics really “have to” gain independence. Based on a logical prediction of the future development of social processes, and taking into account current and past trends, we will try to imagine the option of the separation of Dagestan, and what tectonic movements this could lead to in Russia. For the sake of objectivity, I must remind you that the hypothesis is based on a subjective vision.

So, of course, many will be happy about this mediocre outcome of the rather long and ambiguous relationship between Russia and Dagestan. Especially Dagestani religious extremists, the so-called “lesnye”, and Russian nationalists, the so-called “kvasnye”. On the one hand there will be long cries of “Allahu Akbar”, and there will be long bursts of shooting in ecstasy of happiness. On the other hand, there will definitely be cries of joy too.

Ultimately it will be a Pyrrhic victory for them all. For the latter, it is clear why - the separation of Dagestan will be the first step in the collapse of the Russian Federation. If Dagestan can do it, why not Tatarstan or Bashkortostan, for example. It has long been known about the encroachments of the Tatars on their own state. Pan-Turkism has not yet been canceled. Residents of Russia of Tatar-Bashkir origin, assimilated into the root and scattered throughout the country, do not count - they are not the ones who make the weather. Of course, everything will not happen right away, but the main thing will already be done. This “deadly” step, dangerous for the “health” of Russia, will make it clear to all peoples that if desired, anything is possible. Figuratively speaking, with this step the authorities themselves will move the toggle switch for turning on centrifugal thought processes in people’s brains to the “active” position. To put it even more figuratively, with this “bold” decision the authorities will plant the worm of separatism in the heads of other small nations, which will no longer be possible to eradicate. The rest will be a matter of time. And no systematic presence of the top officials of the state at Tatar-Bashkir sabantuys, and their ridiculous attempts to speak there in the autochthonous languages ​​of these places, and even demonstrative and numerous appointments of ethnic Tatars to high public government positions will not help. The “worm of freedom” will begin its victorious march in people’s heads. And as I already said, no one has yet canceled pan-Turkism. And the blame for this will fall entirely on the current government and Russian nationalists.

On the other hand, as already said, all kinds of Wahhabis, Salafis, in a word - “forest” will be delighted. They are also the ideological inspirers of the theories of imarates and caliphates. They are the ones who for many years, with arms in their hands, “convinced” the people that only orthodox Sharia is a panacea for all the “vices” of modern Western civilization, and that this is the only true form of human existence and the only true path to a prosperous future. And their joy will never end. Citizens loyal to them will also rejoice, in whose “hands” Islam has long acquired a bizarre, grotesque form.

The secular authorities will try to rule for some time (by inertia) using old methods. The hidden political and financial wars of different clans will be greatly exposed, right up to open armed confrontation. But it won't be for long. Power will quickly pass into the hands of the clergy. Because the politicians and officials serving this government in the eyes of the local population have long lost all trust and legitimacy with their appetites and cynicism, it is unlikely that they will be able to resist for long. It is the clergy that still glimmers at least some faith in justice in the hearts of people. First, the so-called traditionalists will take the reins of governing the people into their own hands. And there will be a continuous search for maslahat (peace) between them and the radicals. It is clear that there will be no maslahat (the radicals will reasonably say: they didn’t fight for that) and, after a short armed confrontation, the latter will take power. And from this moment on, the old, secular government, with all its political clan games, deputies, ministers and other important officials, with its cool castles and Maybachs, regardless of whether they do zakat or namaz, with rare exceptions, will urgently need start packing your things for an emergency departure from the republic. And if they do not manage to do this on time, then an unenviable fate awaits them.

Why exactly will the “radicals” ultimately take power? Everything is extremely simple. Well-organized and armed people, with a simple and clearly formulated ideology, good or bad - it doesn’t matter (everything is relative) - understandable to ordinary people and enjoying support from them (overt or secret), in the absence of a worthy alternative, - always will take over. This is the nature of things. In short, forest products are finally being legalized. Then their spiritual leaders will begin to secretly share their “weight” in society, so to speak, their importance. In the sense of who “contributed” how much - who undermined whom and how much in the name of Allah and Sharia, who suffered how much in forest dugouts and FSB dungeons, who deserves what more and who should be who in the religious power hierarchy. Conversations about the equality and brotherhood of all Muslims and the purity of thoughts of a true believer will fade into the background. After all, “big” power will be at stake. And great power, as we know, is more attractive than all these beautiful conversations at Friday sermons and in forest dugouts.

Sharia will be proclaimed. At first, Sharia will indeed become a solution to some of the problems that are actively irritating the local population. Women will be required to wear hijabs everywhere, and in many mountainous and not so mountainous regions they will decide to “populate” them with burqas. Brothels with their saunas will also disappear. Although, there is no complete certainty here. Perhaps they will not be touched, but with the obligatory presence of a mullah there. Vodka, beer and other strong drinks will disappear from the shelves. But drinkers will continue to drink, but not so openly and now other drinks - from fruits from their own plots, or from the shadow alcohol market. Perhaps soft drugs, which, as we know, are not banned anywhere, will become more popular. Almost all programs and films will be banned from being shown on television, recognizing them as harmful for Muslims, if, of course, television remains at all. They will mainly show sermons by various religious figures. Music will undergo significant censorship restrictions. Not all music will be highly recommended for listening to the faithful. There will be fewer cafes and restaurants of all kinds. Those that remain will all be halal. All issues will be decided by the Sharia court. The punishments will definitely get tougher. The sense of the value of human life, lost through many years of numerous murders, bombings and suicide bombings, will have its effect. Almost anything goes wrong - a bullet in the forehead or a machine-gun burst hit the body of a poor fellow sentenced by a Sharia court, always in the central square, always in public. At first, one gets the impression that the main achievement of “freedom” is demonstrative and cruel executions. Of course, there will be indignation from the civilized world at such barbarism. Of course, the authorities will have to justify themselves (and where to go), but this will not happen right away (after all, a sovereign international unit has the right to sovereign actions and is not obliged to report to anyone). But developed and militarily strong countries will “convince” that their indignations must be responded to immediately, that sovereignty is not an obstacle to carpet bombing. Therefore, they will say, it’s better to stop acting up in good health. In the hope of meeting the basic expectations placed on Arab countries for fraternal assistance, equipped with spiritual guidance, all kinds of delegations will often visit Arab countries with an outstretched hand and, of course, for Sharia-building experience. They will invite Arab co-religionists to Dagestan, so to speak, to establish a new and advanced way of life.

At the same time, they will look for interethnic harmony. Representatives of all nations will gather, and according to the tradition of our grandfathers, they will seek interethnic consensus. And they will find it, and everything will be fair. But the main thing – the economy – will be missing. When the euphoria from “victory” wears off, when you’ve had enough of “freedom,” the time will come to think about your mortal body. So to speak, they will come face to face with the most important problem of any state, so recklessly forgotten in the excitement of the struggle. Whatever one may say, sermons on an empty stomach are ineffective and sometimes even dangerous. The feeling of hunger, as you know, is an ancient feeling; this feeling accompanies a person throughout his entire history. Even when there were no traces of religions or other important things for a person, the feeling of hunger was always present in a person. And this animal feeling sometimes makes a person inadequate. So, the question becomes acute: what will we eat? - in the big sense of the word. It is clear that such a concept as a budget will cease to exist. The only source for any kind of existence will be foreign aid. Dagestan has no other sources of food. Russia never established an economy there, either it couldn’t, or it prudently didn’t want to. It did not build plants or factories to produce any goods in demand among the people, which could have served as a good source of income for the treasury.

Naturally, you will have to buy many products. And they will not be cheap - after all, they are imported. Considering that the national volute introduced by the new authorities will devalue at cosmic speed, the purchasing power of the people will be practically equal to zero. Many will have a hard time, many will have only one thought in their heads: how to feed their family

Russia, quite understandably, will not provide any assistance. Russia will close for Dagestan with great joy: out of sight, out of mind. No relationship - no help, no trade. And such behavior will be legitimate in the eyes of the world community and from the point of view of international law. Of course, spiritual leaders will declare a comprehensive jihad against Russia. But Russia will no longer be accessible to jihad. Considering that a large number of young Dagestanis will still remain in Russia, there will be attempts to “jihad” with their help. But Russia is not Europe - they will quickly gather everyone and send them home in cattle trucks, just like the Georgians did in their time. This will be the end of attempts to punish Russia, although the curses against it will remain. Europe and America, of course, will come to the rescue, they will even give some money, there will also be some humanitarian projects. Well, like in Afghanistan. Neither America nor Europe need these places, inhabited by people whose psychology hardly correlates with the psychology of their peoples, geopolitically, economically, or for any other reasons. For them, these republics were of interest only in the context of respect for their human rights. We must give them their due, they did this even despite the fact that most of these same people, lumpen and in solidarity with the authorities, resisted this help in every possible way. Now that they are their own heads, interest will wane. Of course, sometimes “interest” will be awakened, but this will mainly be in exceptionally extraordinary cases, when, for example, the actions of the new government will be below the level of the cultural code of modern people. In other words, when the world community’s “hair will stand on end” from the monstrous things that the new government will do. If, for example, a death sentence passed by a Sharia court is carried out by quartering. Or they will begin to destroy the entire cultural heritage of Dagestan, recognizing it as contrary to Sharia norms.

Then, when all attempts to feed the people do not lead to anything good, forces will appear that will say: “Russia owes us a lot of money, so to speak, reparations, because our long stay as part of this northern country threw us back in development, which is why we There’s nothing to eat now.” But these claims will have no prospects. There was a time when the Baltic republics also tried to exploit this term, but, as you know, things are still there, and without any prospects there is no permission.

Now, what will happen to education, medicine, science. Education will naturally switch to the Arabic alphabet. That is, in the coming years from the beginning of “freedom” it will not exist. And it is quite possible that it will not exist for one more reason, for example, the new authorities will find contradictions with Sharia in education - they will take it and prohibit it from studying. Almost the entire educated part of the population - the entire scientific intelligentsia, the majority of good specialists, under any pretext, will try to leave and will go somewhere. That is, science will also tell you to live long. Science needs freedom and good opportunities for research, otherwise it is just a pointless ordeal. The question “where to find good specialists” for all sectors of life will take on rhetorical forms. And for one more reason they will leave: modern people who have “tasted the joys” of progress will never agree that they will have to forget everything that happened in their lives and start life in completely opposite realities. Start waking up with the first roosters to the confused voice of a teenager - a muezzin. Waste your days in vain, visiting the neighboring mosque from time to time. But this will not mean at all that they do not have God in their souls or that they do not pray, just an oppressive melancholy will overcome them. Perhaps volunteers will come from Arab and some neighboring countries, but, unfortunately, they will no longer be ours, local specialists. And Dagestan will start everything from scratch - visiting teachers, visiting doctors... as it already happened once in our history.