May 23, 2013, 03:26 / Finance

The Ministry of Finance draws up the “pre-crisis” budget

The Ministry of Finance is drawing up a “pre-crisis” budget for 2014–2016: due to economic stagnation, revenues are declining and replenishment of the reserve fund is actually suspended Olga Kuvshinova Margarita Lyutova

Only oil will help cope with expenses / A. Makhonin / Vedomosti

According to the Ministry of Finance, in 2014–2015. the budget will be missing 1.6 trillion rubles. planned income. In 2014, they will be less by 664 billion rubles, in 2015 – by 951 billion, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov calculated. President Vladimir Putin's demand to reach a zero budget deficit by 2015 will not be met. Plans to accumulate 7% of GDP in the reserve fund by the end of 2016 are cancelled.

Every year, when starting to set the budget, the Ministry of Finance tries to restrain the onslaught of lobbyists, warning about an increase in the deficit, recalls Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist of Otkritie Financial Corporation . But now this is not just a political statement, he believes: the economy is slowing down and it is not yet clear how long this will last. It may be necessary to dip into the reserve fund or increase debt, Tikhomirov believes.

The reason is the deteriorating situation in the economy: in April, the Ministry of Economic Development lowered almost all indicators in the forecast for 2013–2015. Both oil and gas and non-oil and gas revenues will decrease, Siluanov said. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev called the budget “complicated” and “pre-crisis.”

But expenses cannot be reduced, with the exception of those conditionally approved, Siluanov said, in 2014 and 2015. this is 350 billion and 400 billion rubles. Eliminating them is not enough to balance the budget: the deficit in 2014 will increase from 0.2 to 0.6% of GDP, in 2015 - to 0.7% of GDP, in 2016 - 0.6% of GDP.

The second reserve of the Ministry of Finance - oil revenues for the reserve fund - will also be used to finance the deficit, since the volume of borrowings is about 1 trillion rubles. per year, it was decided not to increase, the public debt will remain at the level of 11% of GDP, Siluanov assured. According to the ministry's projections, the reserve fund will be reduced from the current 4.2% of GDP to 3% of GDP by 2015, and in 2016 it will be 3.4%.

The third reserve is the state arms program worth more than 20 trillion rubles. until 2020. Two years ago, the demand to reduce it cost Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin his chair. Now, according to Siluanov, the Ministry of Finance is discussing with the Ministry of Defense the possibility of deferring part of the costs by 2-4 years.

Putin, as prime minister, demanded a zero budget deficit by 2015, and while running for president, he made expensive social promises. Now you need to choose - to reduce either the deficit or expenses, Siluanov said: “But 0.6–0.7% of GDP [deficit] is not so scary.”

From the second half of 2012, the economy began to slow down, shrinking to 1.6% in the first quarter - the minimum in history, not counting crises. According to the Higher School of Economics (HSE), the economy has entered a technical recession, which, however, Minister of Economic Development Andrei Belousov denies. Regional budgets, which finance a significant part of the president’s election promises, fell short of about 300 billion rubles in 2012. income, in 2013 they may lack, according to the HSE Development Center, about 500 billion rubles, and the federal budget is threatened with a shortfall of more than 350 billion rubles. income from privatization and an unplanned VAT refund in the amount of 500 billion rubles.

Already in 2012, 20% less than planned was transferred to the reserve fund; in 2013, the Ministry of Finance will spend 70% of additional oil revenues allocated to the reserve fund. In 2014, contributions were supposed to amount to 600 billion rubles, so far it is planned to transfer about 150 billion rubles, says a Ministry of Finance official, but if the situation further deteriorates, funds will have to be taken from the reserve fund.

There is no need to spend the reserve fund within the next three years, unless oil prices fall, says the head of the Economic Expert Group, Evsey Gurvich: “The situation, of course, is tense. This is a test of the capacity of the authorities. If they can respond constructively by increasing the efficiency of spending, there will be benefit; if they cannot, there will be a crisis.”

So far, the budget situation does not look catastrophic and, moreover, it may turn out to be somewhat better, says Dmitry Polevoy from ING: if the world economy begins, as expected, to recover, then the price of a barrel of oil in 2014 could be $110, not $101. as in the budget, which is about 600 billion rubles. additional budget revenues.