The arrival of the head of the presidential expert department, Ksenia Yudaeva, to the place of the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank may lead to a change in the head of the Ministry of Economic Development

The first deputy chairman of the Central Bank, Alexei Ulyukaev, will most likely leave the Bank of Russia after the head of the presidential expert department, Ksenia Yudaeva, takes the position of deputy chairman in charge of monetary policy. Her possible appointment to the Central Bank was reported by the Prime agency and confirmed by two Forbes sources. An interlocutor close to the Central Bank claims that although the final decision has not yet been made, Yudaeva has been de facto working at the Bank of Russia for a month now. It was not possible to reach Yudaeva herself; her phone was turned off.

Ulyukaev, who was one of the contenders for the post of head of the Central Bank, will not remain at the Bank of Russia, although, according to Forbes’ interlocutor, he may be asked to remain, sharing powers with Yudaeva. A source in the government claims that two options for Ulyukaev’s future career are currently being considered: either he will be offered the position of assistant to the president, which is now occupied by Elvira Nabiullina, before the official transition to the Central Bank, or the post of minister of economic development. In this case, Andrei Belousov, who currently holds this position, may move to the position of assistant to the president. A former official from the presidential administration knows that Belousov can be appointed assistant to the president. A Forbes source close to the Central Bank is aware of both options for further developments. Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov declined to comment.

The Kommersant newspaper also wrote in May that Belousov could become the president’s assistant on economic issues. According to the publication, Belousov wrote a letter of resignation. However, he himself later denied this message, calling it “nonsense and nonsense.”

Ksenia Yudaeva has headed the Presidential Expert Directorate since July 13, 2012. She is also the Presidential Representative to the G20 (Sherpa). Before that, she worked at Sberbank, where since 2008 she held the position of chief economist, head of the Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank. She graduated from Lomonosov Moscow State University and the Russian School of Economics, which has recently become the focus of media attention, where she later taught. She received her PhD in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and interned at the Stockholm School of Economics.

Alexey Ulyukaev has held the position of First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank since 2004, Doctor of Economics. From 2000 to 2004 he worked as Deputy Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin. In 1998 he ran for the State Duma from the Union of Right Forces. Recently, Ulyukaev was the main speaker of the Bank of Russia, commenting on the actions and decisions of the regulator. He was considered one of the main contenders for the post of head of the Central Bank.

Vladimir Osakovsky, chief economist for Russia and the CIS at Merrill Lynch, believes that Yudaeva’s arrival at the Central Bank, like Nabiullina’s, will contribute to long-term easing of monetary policy. “Ulyukaev is one of the main supporters of tough policies, his departure will help to focus on the problems of economic growth,” he said. According to Osakovsky, in the context of a general slowdown in economic growth and unclear prospects for its recovery, moving away from tight monetary policy cannot be called a bad thing.

There are currently two opposing views on monetary policy in business and government. Hardliners, such as Ulyukaev, believe that keeping interest rates high constrains the money supply and helps fight inflation. Their opponents, including the head of Sberbank German Gref, believe that high interest rates limit lending, and with it economic growth.

The current head of the Central Bank, Sergei Ignatiev, will leave his post on June 24, when his third and final term allowed by law expires. After him, Elvira Nabiullina will head the Bank of Russia; the State Duma has already approved her candidacy. After the vote in the State Duma, which took place in April of this year, Nabiullina stated that she was not planning personnel revolutions in the Central Bank, although she did not rule out some personnel changes. Sergei Ignatiev will become her advisor.

The cycle of power in nature: where will Ulyukaev go?